Member Info for mathsprof

Can't we just accept the the majority opinion amongst analysts and fund managers is that the risk/fundamentals etc of the stock currently imply a lowly SP.
However, as they gradually improve their opinions, the SP will rise.

topo - How do you think that the SP of a FTSE250 company with a bigger part in the US can be "held back"?
This argument for a lower SP than we think it ought to be makes no sense to me.

My eoy target for 2023 is only 862p.
I fully expect that this will be exceeded sometime , probably soon, but there are so many unknown factors to ponder over that a retrace seems very likely. There is still a load of debt to service and pay off that events like debt restructure or share issues are likely to happen again, and will drag down the SP. Beware of SP running ahead of itself!
£12?? Not for a few years, I suspect.

It's not a spike until there's a retrace!!! Which will happen but when? £8, £9, £10???

Not the way I do it Aangus1. I hope to sell over £8 the £7.36 lot and well over £9 for the others. Then I believe the SP will be ahead of itself in a big way.
I never buy at a price more than my last trade (buy or sell).
If I never buy more CCL I will be happy!

Aangus1 - yes - with one caveat. I still hold my purchases @£8.95 (June 22) and £7.36 (Nov22), waiting patiently for my 10%+- profit. Otherwise I have always sold at a profit.
The idiotic volatility of this share has made this possible. I would never try to trade a share that is (steadily) increasing. It's the slide in SP that has made trading profitable, coupled with the volatility.

Aangus1. I horrified myself yesterday to check my account and found I had made 55 trades of CCL in the last 24 months. Trades all between £2-3k and try to follow my simple rules, not trying to second guess the market.
My basic premise is that CCL will eventually be worth a lot more than it is now (£16???) so trading the ups and downs in the £5-10 range should be profitable in the long run.

Yes, some of us are cruisers who have become traders to try to recover losses.
I initially bought 100 @£31, and have traded many times and now have a current average of £7.43.
So am I going to sell all but the 100 next week? no. The last time I did that (at around £13) the SP continued to march onward to £16 quite soon. So I will stick to my current strategy of buying or selling a £3000 batch as the SP rises or falls by £1 or so.
I have learnt that the SP here is quite unpredictable, and trends don't always repeat themselves. So be prepared for anything.

$ not £

What a simplistic statement. The last cash raise was @$9.95, the convertible price here is $13.39
There is no way this is going to £3, and if more cash is needed from convertibles, I'm happy with a price of £13.39

Months ago I thought a good eoy target for CCL would be 840p. Then we had the disastrous reaction to the 3rd Q figures, various downgrades etc, and I thought I'll average down, but I don't suppose we'll have the slightest chance of seeing 840p for another year.

So what has changed? Fundamentally nothing. The SP slump was clearly overdone, and the present rise will probably get ahead of itself. Sentiment is king! (Aided by shorters...)

What has changed is that I'm in profit again!

It's deliberately misleading. The MMs arrange the bid and offer so that buys are reported as sells (or vice versa sometimes). So here they want to clear the 28k stock from the earlier sell. Get people to buy at under the mid SP and it looks like they're selling. It is supposed to encourage more buyers with the false idea they are getting a good deal.

They're dropping the price to cover the large sell of 28k. When the books are balanceds the SP may well rise again.

And incidentally, the previous comment of "why sell at the lowest price?" If you want to sell that many you'll need to accept a lower price.

Times by 0.88
There is a reason, and that is that the UK shares don't have the same voting rights as the US ones. The 0.88 is purely arbitary, and varies over time by a little, but as you say, it's a good guide.

And, by the way, I'm still happy with my target of £8.40 by rhe end of the year.

Catching up on the earlier discussion about mcap and sp expectations.
The current debt of $35b plays an important/major part in the situation.
I'm not sure what the debt was 3 years ago, but with present debt at around 3x mcap, the mcap cannot recover to previous levels until much of the debt is paid off, and dividends won't be paid whilst high levels of debt are being dealt with.

Suppose (very theoretically) that new shares were issued to pay off all $35b. Mcap would increase by 300%, and dividends could be paid as early as next year. But the number of shares in issue would also increase by the same amount, so the new dividend would only be a small fraction of the previous one (1/8th???)
This gives a minimum SP of about £50/8 = £6.25. Not a realistic prospect, but it does illustrate why the current sp is as low as it is.

Don't think so. Just in the last year $5.3b debt taken out - and there's a lot more to pay back (over $13b and counting).
So I've reduced my 5 year target to £13.50, but would hope to see £8.40 at present when the stock overhang is gone. I now think we'll be very lucky to see £10 this year.
$13b is a lot to pay off - I wouldn't be surprised if when the balance sheet is healthy, that more stock is issued to pay off some of it. This is why I don't think we'll ever get back to the optimistic figures some people are hoping for.
So its a weak but for me now.

I had been half expecting a placing foer the last few weeks. Given recent SP movements, I am happy to see a price of $9.95, and the amount raised is only about 10% of existing stock - so not too much dilution.
$9.95 equates to £8.32, but with the usual UK discount of around 12% this gives us 732p UK SP.
There will be a lot of SP movement in the rest of the week, but I think we could end up over £8 when the dust settles.

So where might hte SP eventually end uP/
Factor in massive share dilution, massive losses and incredible borrowing to cover these, my long term £21 target of last year is now recuced to £14, say in 4/5 years time.
So there's room for a modest increase to around £10 short term, all being well.

hautecouture - you are misunderstanding what this is saying.
74% ALBD means that 74% of the fleet is available and bookable for cruises.
So it's 26% not available, a mixture of cabins set aside for covid, and some ships not in service.

This post needs a new hwading!