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The 3 conditions:

3 Perhaps the easiest. Assuming that almost all the shares given in the first two reported deposits, at an average price of 60p for deposit1 and 40p for deposit2, then about £1.34m is paid off and £0.96 outstanding. So just past the test.

1. At SP of 35p Mcap is around £24.7m. Less £0.96m outstanding £0.3m deposit 3, leaving just £1.21m for deposit 4.

If SP falls further this would reduce to £1..04m @32.5p, or £0.86m @ 30p.

2. If trade sales volume for the next week is similar to last week (around £75k per day) the 20 and 10 day averages then

translates to £1.1m for the 4th deposit.

Conclusion: Likely to be short of the projected £1.4m on 2 counts.

caveat: Based on a few assumptions which are no more than best guesses!

No chance. Must be a sell . Buys were still well over 40p

No. That was at 38.4p

Probably due to enormous late trade .

RF must be selling otherwise one or more of these conditions (from the original RNS) would have no chance of being fulfilled:

a) the maximum amount deposited and outstanding being not greater than 10% of the market capitalisation of the Company at the time of the deposit.

b) the maximum amount drawn and outstanding being not greater than a 15x multiple to the 10-day and 20-day Average Daily Traded Value of the Company's ordinary shares.

c) maximum amount deposited and outstanding being not greater than £1 million prior to the deposit.

The trouble is, the more I read these conditions the more I am confused as to what they actually mean. Is there a difference between amount deposited and amount drawn? I can't think what it is.

Could RF have been allotted more shares for the first or second deposits without us getting an RNS? If not, I can't see how the existing deposits can be under £1m outstanding?

Anyone got any answers??

Strange goings on this afternoon with prices quoted.

I can't get a quote to buy any at all, and its 33.2p to sell over 10k.

So why is there a 10k sell at 31p? And the huge recent trade must also be a sell.

Is a very big buy in the pipeline?

I think even 20 p in the next month or so is very unlikely.

From the evidence of Friday's massive volume, if the price to buy drops below 30p there could be enough buying to easily clear RF out of their current holding. (I will certainly buy a few more.) Yes, I know they will get more, but You've got to think in terms of percentage drop from where we are, not absolute drop.

60k trades

More than 160k traded today, I think . (LSE makes it £153k)

So that bumps up the moving average to over 60k over the last 8 days. (Before that a string of low volume days.)

A 60k average equate to £0.9m drawdown, though.

I can't see how we're going to average £69k of trades over the next 12 days, though.

About £9k traded today plus the late trade of £45k.

Without that the volume was terrible. Need an average of £93k of trades a day to get the full fourth drawdown.

Not good.

Today on a highish volume day, we've had about £50k of trades. £50kx15= a mere £750k. . . .

There's another "problem" with the 4th instalment of £1.4m

It's size will be restricted by the clause about the 15x multiple of the 10-day and 20-day average traded value of the shares.

A quick estimate on current volumes gives me an instalment of between 0.75m and 1m

So SAR may be a bit short of funds earlier than expected.

Sog - don't worry about the interest problem it doesn't exist. There is no interest payable until any later tranches, see initial RNS:

" No interest is payable on the First Deposit, the Further Deposits and the Fourth Deposit. Interest on any Future Deposit shall be mutually agreed between the Company and RiverFort."

And today's MCap of RCL is now $30.09b. (Cf CCL $20.49b) They had a massive rise of 160% last year, with all their pieces nicely in place.

Perhaps it will be our turn this year . . .

So the rot in the CCL vs RCL had already set in pre-covid.

RCL had a much smaller dilution then CCL after lockdown, and has come out stronger, likely to pay dividends earlier, and so consequently has a higher analyst rating, and has recovered SP more rapidly.

The question is, "Will CCL ever be able to catch up?", even to the 2019 relative position? I reckon that would require a 40% rerating of CCL or the equivalent downrating of RCL.

Door now smashed in with 18k sell @ 66

I've found an alternative site to see trades, albeit delayed.

Pattern Pharma, Inc. engages in the pharmaceutical industry. Its product named P2PAR addresses the immune failure which underlies infectious diseases and cancers.

Quite a small organisation.

Nick is also a director of an unlisted Pattern Pharma, registered in Toronto though.

Day off yesterday at grandsons!

My first thought s on this is Pubs. JDW took a big hit at covid (lost 2/3rds) and has only recovered to 50% down. But You'd have to look at whether there was significant dilution, like here. Also take a look at WTB. Not so badly hit and now about 25% down.

TheAccountant - I would not expect more than 10% rise in the coming year.

However if RCL was valued in the same way as CCL, then I reckon it's SP would be around $80 at present. It is in fact almost £130.

So, if CCL had the fear factors removed and a Zack's rating of 1 as well, I could make a case for an SP of £21-£23 for CCL for end of 2024.

I don't think this will happen, because I think RCL is overvalued.