Member Info for marve

We currently have more than AVCT so far today, must be a first that

Various ways to tell that GDR is really starting to get noticed

From January (pre coronavirus), so the majority of increase could potentially be to do with coronavirus:

GDR, £7m to £39m - increase of £32m
SNG, £11m to £69m - increase of £58m (might ignore them for future comparison as not testing related)
ODX, £22m to £91m - increase of £69m
AVCT, £31m to £161m - increase of £229m
NCYT, £12m to £257m - increase of £279m

Clearly NCYT are selling their tests, so they are at one end of the spectrum, I dont know enough about AVCT, however their starting market cap was higher so their increase might not solely de down to coronavirus, ODX has just now got into the wider media

I dont want to like set certain levels for market caps, because on face of it AVCT i am unable to compare, but what i will say is it feels there are many legs up through the process such as (starting from bottom):

- announcing that developing testing kits
- getting partnerships on board for it
- being in the wider media about what the company is doing
- receiving approval from various bodies for the testing kits
- ramping up production capabilities
- taking orders and selling the testing kits

It is clear where GDR currently are, so it shows if all goes well, where we hopefully could be

as long as it is those white chocolate mice lol

great day so far guys, GDR is slowly but surely coming into focus of the wider audience

blustington, i watched that film again over the weekend, have to say it is one of my favourites

100% agree with you here

agreed bigbench, plenty of possibles here and no harm in discussing them

coronavirus stocks are somewhat rewriting history at the moment, really anything could happen

if all goes to plan here, then in comparing others in the market, my trigger points for assessing what is best to do will be like when GDR reaches:

£100m - would be £2.85
£150m - would be £4.28
£200m - would be £5.71

calculus capital who hold 18.9% of the issued share capital in GDR (on behalf of clients with EIS and various investment types) - calculus capital manage the investment not the client (that is what i believe is usually the case anyway), so them in at 80p they are going to sell at some point you would think

no knock on the company potential, just a guess who knows how things will change over the coming months - you would expect this to be case in any share which goes through a big transformation, and no doubt if we get to like £200m - we attract a whole new kind of shareholder anyway, especially if in the future we start paying dividends

my view on the takeover theory, does anybody know us well enough to conduct a takeover at such short notice, maybe cytiva? would they even want us?

the speed that the market is moving in these coronavirus stocks is crazy, an offer could be announced, but the market could deem it a lowball and the share price keeps rising

not a negative, but the only thing i will say on the flip side, is a takeover in this current climate is probably a very risky one, not necessarily from a price perspective from the buyer either, the logistics of doing it at the moment, the whole complications it would involve

GDR could make hundreds of millions from their exposure to the coronavirus market, but no buyer is going to pay cash for cash, i suspect any future transaction would be if somebody wants the genedrive technology, but that opens a whole new discussion if genedrive is cash rich in the coming years and what they do with it lol

anyway, so i am quite confident there is very little chance of a takeover, which i feel is good for us shareholders, let the company see where it can go

i agree, if you look into the detail you pretty much find what you want to read

but because we have no received media attention and the official stamp, that is the only reason i can think that focus is elsewhere at the moment

at least that is my theory, so i happily sit and wait until the spotlight gets to us

nice to see some new faces here today and over last few days

thats all it is, being on the radar of a wider audience, every other coronavirus test share has gone through that, ODX being the latest, so just GDR left?

once GDR hopefully gets the approvals and accreditation, this share will not be deemed risky, it will be viewed as having a big future and the masses will get on board

hopefully not long now

nice to read some scientific discussion lads

interesting you mention mutations and testing reliability technik, think i have read reports that covid 19 could have mutated many times already

GDR definitely in the shadow of many at the moment, but once product hopefully gets the approval and is ready, then orders start coming in, no way will we be anywhere near current market cap

could well be the case that the other testing stocks reach temporary ceilings, and then they need regular sales updates before the share price can go higher, an outsiders opinion could say NCYT look to be at that very point right now, if they all reach this point, everyone will start looking for the next mutli bagger that is in the pipeline, massive attention could then focus on GDR

JBB, them loans you mention that dont expire for a few years, my main thought after recently looking at them was can GDR ever turn round and say here is the loan back, before they can ever be converted by the loan holder etc

i am not concerned about any future dilution should they get converted to shares, no doubt it wont happen for a long time even if it does - because as you say thats not the bigger picture, those loan holders have been with GDR for years

looking forward to when GDR starts getting attention from a wider audience

I've got a small holding in ODX, but simply so I had exposure to any antibody progress, although still a lot of questions for me, how accurate is the test, how big an amount of anitbodies do you need to really be immune, is that immunity a theory or certainty, what about the mutation into different strands, how big a slice of the pie will they even get on that article suggestion of £10 a test, so yes I see antibody tests as far higher risk

GDR my main holding, always thought the antigen type test "have you got it" was less risky, but GDR appealed to me more because I thought it was the best low risk high reward option there is

In my opinion if the higher risk ODX does make good returns, then no problem, I will definitely be bringing the profit here

That article says

"we can develop the molecular test in a week and have it up and running on the device in three or four weeks. We are confident it will perform well and we urgently need industrial partners to come on board."

Maybe sounds a bit like a portable device similar to ours

Wonder if we will get an update on our second test soon

Got no problem with talk about AVCT here when it's scientific related and how that compares to us as GDR

just that the share price goes up considerably, because us here feel it is far far lower than it should be

bladderman / technick

would you say AVCT are currently valued on the basis that their test will work, is going to be approved and it will be available pretty much imminently? at £163m it has to valued like that right

so, little old us at £29m, we are pretty much valued more like some random new company who fancies developing a test

quick story, i watched the big short film last night (for what must be like the tenth time it is that good lol), tell you what i would compare GDR valuation to, when the bond markets were crashing, the rating agencies kept rating them as top level quality, the price of the bonds were crashing but the insurance prices on the bonds were still going up lol, nothing made sense lol

once things hit home, if GDR gets its product to market shortly it has to rerate massively

back to normal, would be an interesting discussion on what that exactly means

it is likely wont be able to go watch a football match for the rest of the year, pubs might not open fully until getting on for christmas, if back to normal is zero restrictions then it is going to be a very long time

however, maybe it will only be a new normal, everyone has to where mask in more busier areas, everyone taking a flight gets a test before boarding, the list goes on and on

testing for those who have caught the virus early on might be ramping up, but in my opinion, testing for those to check they are still free from the virus is going to be even bigger

genedrive i believe are going to be a major player in the market, but we will have to wait and see over time how big that really is

Meant to post a reply in this thread earlier

I've got an amount of profit in mind I would love to make, I've got a figure in mind for what I think could be a fair share price and market cap

Problem is, all things considered, the speed we and the market is moving at is unprecedented, NCYT showed that

I think I probably fall into the group that, instead of having an exit price in mind, I've got an exit point in mind, and that is when GDR become a major established player in the testing market

Whatever the price is at that point so be it