Member Info for marve

Good explanantion MoreThanMe

With the total of both still above 3% then I expect we will get another RNS when their percentage next changes, just have to see if they ever do get rid of specifically the 2.61% of voting rights via shares

I am confident in comparing the market cap increase showing how coronavirus has affected stocks, the latest figures are:

(starting point is January)

GDR, £7m to £29m - increase of £22m
ODX, £22m to £60m - increase of £38m
SNG, £11m to £75m - increase of £64m
AVCT, £31m to £161m - increase of £130m
NCYT, £12m to £257m - increase of £245m

I think it shows the type of potential that GDR could achieve

had to post this again as it is still somewhat staggering

the market caps in Jan pre coronavirus compared to the current day:

GDR, £7m to £25m - increase of £18m
ODX, £22m to £49m - increase of £27m
SNG, £11m to £70m - increase of £59m
AVCT, £31m to £121m - increase of £90m
NCYT, £12m to £254m - increase of £242m

no way in 3 months has non-coronavirus side of business skyrocketed for any of them

back to the comparison of market caps posted earlier and how they have been affected since coronavirus, AVCT has jumped £90m and NCYT has jumped £242m

if on product launch / producing 10k units per hour and distributing them, if GDR gets to like £3 a share it would still be valued less than AVCT currently are (as of today) without a product on the market

it sounds like a shocking ramp, but even comparing NCYT where they are now, it just shows the potential of GDR should they tick all the boxes we hope they do

this 70p range definitely feels like last weeks low 50s, where it settled then jumped up

be nice if by end of next week we are settling around 90p to £1, nicely legging up each week as the product launch gets closer

i am sure if we get more info along the way, more details of the partnership, any new partnerships, approvals from different bodies, they will likely act as an instant price jump trigger - and i see no reason why we wont start to get more regular news updates because things are moving fast

if the product could be available in less than 5 weeks, "available" being ready to start producing 10k units an hour and shipping them, so pretty much available to the market, then we are right in the window for updates - for example i think NCYT made massive gains the product approvals RNS

still does not make sense to me if thousands of people still entering country from all over the world, think one answer given was that the virus is here now, so those entering the country are miniscule impact, who knows who these people are and are they in fact breaking our own rules of only essential travel, which would make even less sense that we allow it, travel in and out the country should have been clamped down on early in some way, but that is by the by now

why is GDR still languishing at a market cap far below the rest, when we see this great opportunity but the masses dont seem to currently, GDR came from such a small market cap, it must be like so many people still wont touch us, for now anyway - hopefully the new broker helps change that

The interesting way to look at it, is what market cap was everyone before coronavirus, so back in like Jan, roughly they look to have been as follows (selection of stocks):

GDR, 20p and£7m
SNG, 10p and £11m
NCYT, 20p and £12m
ODX, 15p and £22m
AVCT, 18p and £31m

no way in 3 months has non-coronavirus side of business skyrocketed for any of them, so compare each current market cap now to the above from Jan:

GDR, £7m to £25m - increase of £18m
ODX, £22m to £49m - increase of £27m
SNG, £11m to £70m - increase of £59m
AVCT, £31m to £121m - increase of £90m
NCYT, £12m to £254m - increase of £242m

so it is easy to argue there is so much value still to come from GDR over the coming weeks and months

just a bit of lateral thinking franco, although i am maybe trying to find something that is not there lol

for starters we must get spreadex holding rns tomorrow you would think

Just a potential theory of mine:

Who are Calculus Capital? They provide EIS and VCT packaged investments for individuals

What do they currently hold in GDR? 18.9% (6.5m shares)

When did they first invest? 23 June 2016 RNS - 3.1m shares at 80p

When did they last invest? 16 Nov 2018 RNS - 3.3m shares at 23p

We have not yet heard about any selling from Calculus, however that tranch they took in June 2016, over 3 years from investing to meet EIS disposal rules for not losing original income tax relief - so I do wonder if we might start to hear that they have been derisking

To most of us long term private investors here, selling GDR would seem stupid, but to say the share price was once at 9p, Calculus could well be taking the view of protecting clients money, as well as their reputation, I do not expect that their long term goal is ever to make many 100s of % returns from their investments

As 80p seems to be a sticking point here, we have tested it twice now, I wonder if the above might be true - because this was the 2016 buy in price for Calculus

Note: I have not mentioned GHIF and BGF who have bonds/loans to GDR that have the option of being converted into shares at some point in the future, I am not sure if they would even be able to forward sell such shares anyway

I reckon we could get another holdings rns tomorrow showing Spreadex latest position

If no known seller that could easily bring confidence we have bottomed out

i deliberately stayed away from anything antibody test related as they do seem a extremely high risk investment

edit: TILS has not yet start trialling their potential treatment

as i understand it, but forgive me if any of the below is wrong:

antigen test tells you if you currently have the virus, antibody test is supposed to tell you if you previously had it

GDR is developing two antigen tests, first one is the freeze dried assay lab test, which is faster than standard lab tests, the second test is the portable point of care test

in terms of the other companies (again as i understand it):

NCYT has produced and distributing an antigen standard lab test

AVCT is trying to develop a point of care antigen test

ODX is trying to develop an antibody test

TILS has developed a treatment

SNG is trialling a treatment

IHC has developed a respiratory device

i agree that last thing want now is cash to hold us up, however if we get a partner involved could easily be them who helps with funding

however take NCYT for example, they had hardly anything in their bank in June 2019 accounts, and through remainder of 2019 they had loan notes, of which they secured 5m euros loan in november

hardly rolling in cash compared to their markep cap, so all about partner involvement

i had like 50p in mind, but that was after we finished on 56p after tuesday, i did not expect wednesday for it to carry on and peak at 80p, especially after last thursday up 30% then tuesday up 40%

most coronavirus shares taking a breather at moment, slow day in volume traded but down 16%

if spreadex are gone or nearly gone, cant see us dropping much further at all

dont think its worth trying to be greedy and hold out for 50p for top up

edit: top up now done

just bouncing around like it did in the 20p to 40p range 2 weeks ago, my guess is about 50p is lowest it could drop to, but could easy not drop any further and bounce back to mid 60s and 70 over next few days

just constant weekly cycle but underlying trend going in right direction, then hopefully news ignites this thing when it lands

or some other crazy theory if anyone has one lol

but principal remains same that them selling means nothing

i should put my post in context, i do not care if spreadex are selling, they acquired 12m shares in feb when M&G reduced their holding massively, i have no idea what this was all about

but spreadex as far as i know do not offer savings and investment products, so this cant be a client using a nominee account and selling up

it is wierd, but i do not believe spreadex make investments in other businesses either, they offer spread betting and cfd trading products

how about this for a theory, some client of spreadex owed them a hell of a lot of money, there was no way he/she could repay the money they owed to spreadex, the only asset he/she held was GDR shares via M&G, so some sort of agreement was put together where spreadex took the shares in lue of payment

6m shares we traded in early feb at like a 50% discount in price, that volume alone meant the transaction would reset the market anyway

i appreciate it is somewhat fantasy, but its logical

in essence, no panic as to why spreadex are offloading, it has nothing to do with GDR future

I am convinved in my belief that spreadex are selling all their stock, so many continued round trades, and never mind that 1m that popped up

This is definitely holding us back, so once spreadex are gone, hopefully nobody else starts selling up in the millions, because then surely there will be no holding this back if we get the brilliant news we hope is around the corner

Feels like this is a good time to top up - i best get up early enough if there is a red open

for what it is worth, my theory is that somebody held millions of shares via M&G, in early Feb they sold them in full for a designated knock down price (checking the chart early Feb and the volume), spreadex were somehow involved in acquiring them, maybe it was the same client who was moving platforms from M&G to spreadex

however i thought M&G and spreadex were providers of different products to their clients, however it doesnt come up as spreadex nominees, which if it did would make you think it was client money

and not sure i can see it to do with shorting, because if so then IG and the like would be on holdings RNS across loads of companies wouldnt they

so i am somewhat lost as to what it really is about, would be interesting to know what the truth is though