Member Info for Marunam2

Ofcourse he is not going to remotely say anything on FID timing.

BUT in the next few weeks when the production cuts have taken hold and poo is well above $70pbo , then we will all be saying its a no brainer.

Ombrina Mare- Dont see why that will also not be a game changer if RKH win.
Still a possibility of serttlement in the lead up to the arbitration, imo.

I really hope Zama drill is above expectations , would really set up alll sorts of possibilities for pmo and therefore RKH.

Worth reading :
http://arbitrationblog.kluwerarbitration.com/2018/01/27/rockhopper-vs-italy-weighing-legitimate-expectations-investors-due-diligence-ma-deals/?print=print

What chances that they announce that all finance is agreed , before FID, that would mess a few beds of people on here.
PMO is heavily shorted and any news like that will cause a stampede.

Friday will be Day 37 of the drill, so news due soon.
Hope it's another discovery.
Also may get updates on the new production levels to reflect the last 2 drills.

Ombrina Mare decision due in 60 days or so as well. Still think they will settle if as I believe the numbers for the claim are as big as people say.

Fid also in play in January.

Time coming for traders to be wary.

Friday will be Day 37 of the drill, so news due soon.
Hope it's another discovery.
Also may get updates on the new production levels to reflect the last 2 drills.

Ombrina Mare decision due in 60 days or so as well. Still think they will settle if as I believe the numbers for the claim are as big as people say.

Fid also in play in January.

Time coming for traders to be wary.

6y

"Easier shale" Carroteater is not so easy or profitable as it's made out as I've said all along.


Good to see some shale "cost2 properly scutinsed.

http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/201812041960/big-fracking-profits-at-50-a-barrel-dont-bet-on-it.aspx

http://egyptoil-gas.com/news/transglobe-tests-three-intervals-in-bahariya-formation/

Sorry forgot to add the credit to Egypt oil and gas.

Latest well into day 21 of the drill, so not long for TD from here.

Would think that the new Bahariya discovery and the flow rates from Transglobe next door of over 2300bopd from one of the levels would accelerate more drilling .

No more worries about cash flow if they find oil with those flow rates.

fore those nay sayers Abu Sennon is now looking very cheap and could genrate some serious revenues relaive to cost.

This could be a signficant and transformational find by RKH in the Bahariya level in the last well. Already producing at over 500blpd

This discovery is from the neighbouring company in the Western Desert.
http://egyptoil-gas.com/news/transglobe-tests-three-intervals-in-bahariya-formation/

TransGlobe Energy Corporation started testing three intervals in its Bahariya formation, which showed 3,840 barrels per day (b/d) of light oil from both the Bahariya and Lower Bahariya, Egypt Oil & Gas reports.

The company announced drilling the SGZ 6X exploration well with a total 5,195 feet-depth and defined it as a light oil discovery at Bahariya.

The lower Bahariya had a natural flow at an average of 2,437 b/d of light oil, 1.4 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) of natural gas and 21 b/d of water. Meanwhile, the middle Bahariya formation produces a small amount of formation water.

The upper Bahariya had a natural flow averaging at 1 mmscf/d of natural gas, 210 b/d of water, and 1,403 b/d of light oil.

“We are delighted that our perseverance in the Western Desert has been rewarded with a light oil discovery and very encouraging test rates. Once we have completed our planning we will be able to incorporate the development of this discovery into our 2019 plan, and provide updated capital and production guidance,” said Randy Neely, President of TransGlobe.

TransGlobe Energy Corporation is a Calgary-based, cash flow focused oil and gas exploration and development company whose current activities are concentrated in the Arab Republic of Egypt and Canada.
From Rkh :
Al Jahraa-6

The development well Al Jahraa 6 was successful not only in its primary objective as an Abu Roash-C infill oil producer but also encountered good oil shows in the Abu Roash-D, E, G and made a new oil discovery in the deeper Bahariya section. The Bahariya formation was put on test on 22 September 2018 and, after clean-up, is producing in excess of 550 bopd with a stable water cut of 22%. This represents the first commercial oil production from the Bahariya formation within the Abu Sennan concession. The well has been completed to allow potential future production from Abu Roash G and C levels. The Company believes that the Bahariya discovery de-risks additional exploration targets at the same level elsewhere in the concession.

Bahariya discovery will add over 100bopd alone, sound very little but for a company this size that is still healthy for cash flow when added to the 2nd well production ( depending on well test ) .

With the new production added to production that came back online in July ( 200bopd from memory ) plus any any addition from the 2nd well would mean that H2 will be well above H1 production.

Good news to prop up the company cash flow and makes the Eygpt assets more and more valuable relative to the purchase price.

PMO update to take us back up to nearer 40p , than 30p.

Not long for the main event.

If the Vendors are signing LOA's then surely that's only worthwhile doing if , Export Finance AND senior credit have been sorted.
Timeline given by PMO for the lead bank to process this all was 3 to 6 months and we've past 3 months already, so it's all in play.

Now that the US mid terms are over , we should see oil rally up back to $75 in the coming weeks. OPEC are not going to flood the market just when shale is about to increase supply . Next year will be a record year for shale production and OPEC will want inventories at manageable levels or POO will tank again to well below $70.

PMO update should see us back upto higher sp levels and any decent news from Egypt will also help.
Think we may have seen the worst of it, re the sp.

Bottom

Yes it has been a miss or hit job, BUT a positive Ombrina Mare outcome would make that deal a hit.
As to the Egypt assets, they have by luck worked out very well . The final purchase price, after they pulled out of the original deal , means they have already got good value out of the deal due to POO being well above £70pbo.

Seems like the CEO of UEG, the Abu Sennen operator has been to Cairo and and discussed with the petroleum minister about making more investments in their Egyption assets, surely this includes Abu Sennen .

Time for a slow re bound in the sp and poo, once midterms in US completed and Iran sanctions bed in.

A hell of a lot of moving parts to get to FID, there will a great many people involved in the processs, financially and on an operational level.

FID rumours and shenanegans will be coming shortly as well.

A lot of people will be in the know and some will act on that .

The Al Jahraa-6 development well spudded on 4 July 2018 and reached total depth of 3935m MD (-3623m tvdss) in the Kharita Formation on 19 August 2018. Mudlogs indicate the presence of oil in the Abu Roash C, D, E and G levels and the deeper exploration target in the Bahariya Formation. Due to hole problems the full open hole wireline logging programme was not achieved. Reservoir pay is confirmed in the Abu Roash C and D levels. The well is currently being completed for testing and production, and the programme is designed to examine the moveable fluid phase at several levels.

Upon the release of the rig, it will be mobilised to the southeast to drill the Al Jahraa-10 development well. This well will be drilled as a vertical hole to the primary Abu Roash C reservoir objective, in an undrained area of the structure. This well is expected to take approximately 50 days to drill and complete, and will be immediately followed by exploration well ASS-1X on Prospect S. Development wells Al Jahraa-6 and Al Jahraa-10 are both designed to increase reserves and field production rates.

News on the result due anytime .
Any production increase would be very welcome , even a couple of hundred boepd would be material to cash flow.

Al Jahraa-6 - I did email the company at the time of testing, wether is was completed and if the rig had moved onto to Al Jahraa 10, NO reply forthcoming.
It's not as we have a lot of operational things going to stop some updates on the only drilling going on for the company across the board.

Average daily price for brent for 2017 was $54.25
For 2018 , so far it is $71.34.
A difference of over $17 pbo per day, that is a whopping difference !!

I would not be at all surprised to see a deal done by the Italians before the deadline, they cannot wriggle out of any award and so will do as lawyers do, limit the damage as much as possible.
If the case is as strong as claimed by the company then there must be precedents and hence the win or no win offer.
They must know if they are on shaky ground and the quantums involved could be embarrasing and costly .
If they are to limit their financial exposure and political cost then they will settle on a sum and close this out as quietly as possible.
King and Spalding, RKH lawyers are heavyweights in the field of arbitration. Have a look at their website.
Most importantly it costs RKH nothing for this action and they have all to gain.

The claim and quantum e.g 275m euro when poo was $50 was not picked out of the air, there would have been previous cases where the quatum valuation was minutely calculated and precedent's were set .

I disagree,
The EC process has been ongoing for well over a year. They would have been told a long time ago if that was not happening and its a major part of the process so they would have informed the market a long time ago.
My take is that the Vendor finance has been agreed with service contracts.
Export finance is agreed if they can find the rest of the money.
The commercial aspect of the loans was the outstanding issue and due dilligance would take 3 to 6 months on that and I genuinely belive we are well into that process as they have independent people doing the due dilligance on that for the banks.

Q, What will be happen at FID and sanction to the value of the OIG in the ground ?

I think it was $3 to $4 a boe when Sealion was discovered and appraised.

Does that still apply in the industry ?

I ask as any renogtiations of the terms with PMO and a farmee would give a decent guide to the valuation of RKH .

I have been here from the start, when the sp went down to 10p before a rig was even booked to drill Sealion., bought £600 worth that day.
I have seen it go to £5.50 after discovery and sold out at £2 completely.
Back in again after they went down to 30p , then watched it go down to 18p.
Yet we are now a mere few months away from FID.
The differece is that in all that time , at every stage PI's could have made money and still can because if you believe they will proceed with the project then they are ahead of the II's, who have to wait for confirmation.

This is the way I look at investing in the small companies and hopefully get ahead of the II's.

This is at the stage of being FEED ready, EIA ready, Fiscally ready and can proceed without a partner IF as we think that with POO at well above my target of $65 for sanction that finance is also going to be ready.

If all of the above is not possible why spend millions and millions of $ getting it to this stage when your company is $2b in debt ?

Any piece of news and this will fly to the levels it should be and it will.

The biggest fear was when they were drilling Sealion , it was a one shot chance and they did it.
Now it's so far advanced that it's a sitting duck on many levels as it's ready to be santcioned.

IMO ,On the run up to the PMO update traders will shoot this back up to 40p.