Member Info for martinu

Some quotes from route one attributed to our new CEO. Correct me if I'm wrong, but are these are the first words of our new CEO to enter print? CEO Enrico Vassalo says the continuing growth in the lightweight bus sector is in line with expectations. “At Optare we are investing in the segment,” he explains. “It is driven by fuel efficiency and we expect the current trend to continue. The bulk of single-deck business is moving towards the lighter end of the spectrum, and that will continue into 2014.” Enrico expects Optare to retake market share with MetroCity, its full-size single-decker in the 12- to 16-tonne sector. “There is great growth in this segment, and a considerable opportunity for the MetroCity. What we lost in the area of the market served by Solo, we couldn’t make up at 12- to 16-tonnes. MetroCity will allow us to change that.”

Any share of the DD market, would be a bonus, as currently we have 0%. I think Allex is right not to speculate, but a modest 2.5% of 1000 would be 25 units. If they cost as much as £250,000, and if we make 10% gross profit, that would add 25 x £25,000 = £625,000 (gross profit). BUT !!!! This is just a made up example, it is NOT a forecast. We could stay at 0%, if the new DD followed the new product example of the Bonito. Our current share UK new bus registrations (calendar yr 2013) is from memory around 8%. As Ope currently only seem to sell buses which are 8.5 - 12 tonnes, if you took our share of this segment, it would be considerably higher. The eventual market share for the new DD is anyone's guess. Especially in first year. See my next post for more on Optare extending its product range.

Thought we would get one today.

Good spot. I just dont know why Wright seem to be doing so well. My guess is govt support as based in NI but I dont have anything to back this up. With these big orders we always seem to get a token portion, but a good order for Optare and keeps the Electric buses in the public eye. We need to beat BYD and others on electrics. Have read that BYD electrics in London are not great for passengers. Something to do with obscured views. Optare will have half a dozen electrics in London this year. As often not clear when.

This may not be mentioned in any trading update, but would hope this will be maintained or increased slightly. Was 0.1p last year (pay May; ex div Apr).

Well. 37 new buses reg in UK for Optare in Dec 13. Best Dec for 4 years. But during the 12 months market share dropped slightly and total units reg were 317 down 13%.

These should be out this pm. I would guess Optare's new regs would be low 20s.

Last year we got a TU around the middle of Jan. Hopefully there will be one this year.

Route One article: comment. BYD is an ambitious company with a sound track record in other parts of the world. Its two buses in London will not be alone for long as they will be joined in the capital this year (on a yet-to-be-revealed route) by six battery-electric Versas from Optare in another trial. Meanwhile, TfL is looking at induction charging with a trial expected in 2015. Other technology trials, such as the hydrogen buses on route RV1, continue. Ultimately, it is likely that a balance of vehicle types – matching characteristics to routes – is the most likely medium-term outcome.

OK omni, as it is xmas ... I believe they have said they plan to launch in first quarter of 2014. As a holder of this share, i obviously want the price to rise, but usually after a (small) rise the SP drifts lower without any further news. Hope i'm wrong or that Ope DO have some further news soon. Cheers

I meant your source for the DD launch in January.

omni - please post article. That link comes up with document failed to load.

Sam. I've seen that line, but it is so vague regarding numbers. As I've said before, I've spent a few hours trying to find articles in aussie news and was unable to find anything. If they are more than a couple you would hope Ope would do a PR. But thanks for posting and keeeeeeeep searching :)

Thank you. It would be good if they have reduced the cost of the loan, even if it has grown considerably. I hope they are not borrowing to cover running costs, but to cover development costs.

I agree that gross profit % probably can't rise much higher. (Steve on advfn, has commented as such and appears to know industry). Indeed, Steve has estimated what t/o needed to be to break even, based on previous GP. From memory, I think it was c £100m per yr. He says he will rework his est if he has time based on 10%. So long term, rev will need to go up substantially for break even. Hopefully, Ope can sustain the 10%. I also agree debt is a problem (and may have risen since end of rep period). I did note though, that cost of interest hasn't rocketed (c 500k for H1). Do you make anything of the fact that loan appears to have moved from current liabilities to non-current. My knowledge doesn't extend to that. Cheers MU

IMO, spin is when you choose to accentuate I side of an argument. I agree with your highlighting of the negative aspects of these results. But surely you must accept that an almost doubling of gross margin, is positive (up from 5.4 to 10.3%). and, partly due to this, losses were reduced. Obv disappointing that revenue is down.

PP - I think they would. I have spent a lot of time searching the internet for news of export orders. The only firm news I found was that on 8th Dec, 3 Solo EVs went into service in Utrecht, Holland with QBuzz. Further research showed that QBuzz had ordered over 100 new buses BUT NOT from Optare. There is one EV on a school run in Switzerland. Not sure about the current kit situation in SA, but I did read that Busmark were hoping to produce more of the components in SA. I have so far found nothing on Australia, but I suspect there may be some on trial. There are some good links to international websites on Optare's site under Sales and Support tab and then International Agents. But believe me I've wasted hours. If you or anyone else has time, please have a go at finding good news on Exports. Finally, I would est about £7m worth of exports in today's £32m of rev. Based on known UK regs, est of unit value and previous export proportions in figures.

Thanks

IMO Positives: Gross margin almost doubled: 10.3 from 5.4% Losses reduced: -1.8 from - 3.3 £m Negatives: Net assets: - 6.5 from - 0.7 £m Mainly due to £15m loan Question: Can some please explain why the debt seems to have been shifted from current liabilities to non-current liabilities? is this to do with the period of the loan? Disappointing that: Order book only given to Sept; no current update. Also, no figure put on exports. But: Again IMO, a bit better than expected.

... were published 19th Dec last year. So could be out this Fri. Will show reduced revenue but possibly reduced loss. Perhaps some news on exports and level of current orders. And, of course current debt situation. Even if not great, if they are less bad than expected, might improve SP temporarily. Optare's current motto should be "Semper jam crastino" which if google translate is any good, is Latin for "Always jam tomorrow".