Member Info for martinu

I'll have a go. Results for H1 up to Sep 13, showed reduced losses on lower turnover. Due to reduced costs. Gross margin improved to 10% from about 5% a year earlier. However, debt has increased over recent periods, not sure of current level of debt, without checking. H2 and hence full year results will probably show UK production down as much as 15%, though other bus manufacturers, except Wright, are down as well. Optare still seem to get a small number of orders from the big operators, when others, again Wright, ADL get the lion's share. The reports put out with results keep suggesting that Optare are getting into foreign markets, but as yet, there have been very few orders; though results often include export revenue about 1/5 of total revenue. The month of May should see the launch of a new DD. As always, we are guided towards improved expectations in the future. But ... The above is based on memory, with some checking, so please do your own research. Perhaps other posters will add/ amend my post as necessary.

Construction of the new fleet of buses to operate TfL route S1 are well underway at Optares factory near Leeds, with eight now substantially completed of the twelves buses ordered. The lead bus has been completed and is currently undergoing certification at the Millbrook testing centre in Bedfordshire for its Euro 6 engine installation, one of the first in the UK. Managing Director Steve Whiteway commented “it is exciting to see the new S1 fleet going down the line and we look forward to their going into service. I know our driving team can’t wait to show off their new buses to the many people they serve so well on this busy route” The buses are expected to be delivered in late March. Taken from Quality Line (Epsom Coaches) site: hTTp://www.epsomcoaches.com/new-buses-for-route-s1-on-the-line

allex - I would estimate it would be quite similar. Which if true, would half losses from previous year, but is still a loss. L1on - on my previous guess for the number of units needed to break even, based on CURRENT, not FUTURE product mix, the number could be in excess of 500 units

In FY 12/13, our best recently, we produced 374 units and made a loss; albeit with poorer gross margin (7% then, 10% most recent HY). So I would guess we need somewhere in excess of 400 units in a year to make a profit. This is ball park not accurate estimates. However, this is based on selling buses which are and have been in a particular segment of the market, ie < 12 tonne. This might change if we started selling DD, which would be more expensive to buy (though I dont know what the margin on DDs will be). Also, electrics are more expensive, but again dont know margins. And, also new MetroCity, which is aimed at London. Perhaps Steve could comment on the relative margins and the magic number for turning into profit. As has been said, there is POTENTIALLY good news on the horizon, but this has been the case for a while and the horizon hasn't yet come into view. Next FY will in my view, show if Optare can deliver. If not I think it will have been one promise too many for me. I am keeping an open and optimistic mind on the near future, as I have to being down on this investment!! Cheers.

Sorry, used different time scales for %. Total regs of purpose built buses down over 35%, comparing this Feb with last. Optare, on same basis, up 20% (but this is 4 units only). On year to date, total purpose built buses down 15%, whereas Optare up 13% (but only Jan and Feb so far). On rolling 12 mths, total pbb down 5%, Optare down 14%.

24 in Feb, so a fall of about 10% on previous month. Total "market" (purpose built buses) was down over 35%. Also, note Steve's comments of Feb v Mar and the 14 plate.

Mondo1 - without any news, it just looks a bit like the extra volume last week, which caused a mini spike. The value of the trades looks too small for anybody to make more than a few tens of quid.

Steve, I agree. In fact, last 3 calendar years were: 2011: 18 (Feb), 19 (Mar); 2012: 20 (Feb), 47 (Mar); 2013: 20 (Feb), 43 (Mar). So March registrations have been inflated by this fact (the 14 plate) in the last 2 years. Just wanted to alert board users to this regular stat. And post my "expectations" for what its worth. Cheers.

Just took this quote from westlondonbusblog "Quality Line: - Optare Metrocities for route S1, numbered OM1-12, will arrive later this month at Epsom garage. They are currently at the Optare Plant." So 12 to be delivered in March, if deadline met. Lets hope the paint dries quickly. http://thewestlondonbusblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/year-of-bus-news-february-2014.html I obviously have too much time on my hands.

... for Feb due out this pm. In my view, below 25 would be poor, 28-32 would be par, but unexciting and 35+ would be a marked improvement. There are some deliveries for London, which have been put back until May for Quality Line (Epsom Coaches). These I believe are for new MetroCity not DD. This should attract some coverage!

Good news. A big export order from Aus would be even better

Only in body, not in mind!

The latest PR (today 10/2/14) says that DD will be launched in May. Also, the PR is attributed to an in-house marketing co-ordinator, so possibly torque pr dropped. Let's hope this heralds more frequent updates from Optare.

Turog. Yes I cam across that too. But as hard and long as I have looked I can find nothing to indicate how many buses they have sold in Aus yet. The last results said "successful in winning initial orders in Australia for the whole single deck product range." But how many, worst case one of each!!!!

Jaldad. Thanks for that clarification.

No. Just click on the article relating to latest bus and coach figures. Scroll down to link at bottom. This link accesses 2 files, a spreadsheet and text doc. Click on the spreadsheet and it should open with latest monthly figures and year to date figures.

As this is a regular stat, and in the absence of news from the company, surprised it doesn't generate more discussion; albeit one month's figures can be erratic. Jaldad - "and last quarter 94". Could you clarify what this refers to? EG I thought last quarter regs for 2013 was 81 (=15 + 29 + 37)?

... well we "made" (new reg) 28 units in Jan. OK, but not yet a game changing figure.

Well. SMMT new UK reg figs for Jan today c. 3pm. These are quarterly figures for last 4 years. Perhaps surprisingly, q4 2013 was the best q4 of the last 4 years. Not least because we had a very poor Oct of just 15 units reg. Will the recent improvement continue or not? My est 28 - 32, but individual monthly figures can be erratic. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 89 76 71 81 2012 81 98 115 72 2011 52 74 79 64 2010 N/A 91 68 60 Calendar years.

Latino - would this be confirmation of the additional 15 buses for First, which Optare didn't want to confirm until the order was fully signed? RNS: 17th Jan. Or is it something different?