Member Info for Marmot74

SpanishJohn you are correct. The official payout date was Fri 28/3. I received my dividends into one account on 31/3 and the other on 2/4. So year to date you should have received 3 dividend payments:

H2 2024 $0.69

Q1 2025 $0.125

Q2 2025 $0.80

Sotolo thanks for correcting me. I meant to write less than 500m shares in issue in contrast to CEY which had 1.2bn shares in issue .

It was good to see RBC Capital raise their Anglogold price target to $53 from $41 prior. This follows the 1/5 JPM "overweight" recommendation where they raised their price target to $53 from prior $31.

I anticipate that other brokers will soon raise the $53 target of these two. Consider that there are only 0.5 million Anglogold shares and most institutional and retail investors still have less than 0.05% of their portfolio with any gold exposure.

A key difference with the PM sector on the NYSE vs the LSE is the traction that a stock re-rating or significant price target increase can generate buying interest in the here and now and on any subsequent pullbacks in the subsequent months ebbs and flows of markets.

Anglogold at $40 did not present much resistance in April and after two months of backfilling it now represents good price support going forward.

In the current macro environment well run major gold miner stocks are invaluable. Buy and hold.

In my opinion a very sensible business decision by the Anglo board. A multi country multi mine operator like Anglo looks to add high quality ounces and prospects in stable regions. With the Nevada projects coming on they've got much bigger fish to fry.

It just underlines how we old Centamin shareholders who held on are now part of a global premier league gold miner.

It is good to see a developing pattern of broker upgrades (like JPM "overweight AU) for the sector ,starting to raise their price targets. Added to this is the slow realisation within the banks and brokers that as the USD is losing its safe haven status gold is gaining.

Gold has set 25 new ATH prices so far in 2025. Egon Von-Greyerz research says only 0.05% of US investors have any PM exposure but he expects that to rise to 4-6% as investors get out of dollars and go to gold. For gold that can only mean higher prices or to put it another way a much weaker USD. Trump has stated he wants a weaker dollar to help US exports. Will he get this with his upcoming budget or likely upcoming Fed interest rate cuts ?

Finally there is growing talk of a potential new Bretton Woods monetary reset. This time trailed as the Mar a Lago Accord, Trump's Florida home. The scenario projects the possibity of a gold revaluation to $10,000 p oz and thus a 66% devaluation of the USD.

Key dates for the diary :

1/7/25 Basel 3 full implementation for the Fed and all the Comex banks. This will severely limit their leverage/hypothecation of contracts. Meaning China's physical requiring Shanghai Exchange will grow more and more to be the gold price price setter from the physical market.

6-8/7 BRICS Summit will they announce a USD avoiding gold backed transfer payment system which they have been testing.

I am holding gold and hold quality mining stocks like Anglogold.

Canada's largest gold miner reported their Q1 results after last night's close. Agnico "smashed Q1 earnings " reports Kitco. Agnico significantly beat analysts expectations with earnings of $1.62 p. share, compared to consensus forecast of $1.38 p. share. Av. realised gold price $2891 vs $2062 in Q1 2024. AISC for the Qtr $1183 p. oz. shows tight cost control. FY outlook maintained for 3.3 to 3.5 m oz. Agnico declared a Divi of $0.40 and increased its share buyback programme to $1bn.

If the next group of gold mine majors Q1 results can match Newmont and Agnico with earnings beating forecast, while maintaining a strong balance sheets in a record gold price environment...at some point more institutional and retail investors will surely increase their average PM allocation from the current 0.05%. But the stampede in has yet to start.

Earnings calendar :

1/5 Endeavour

6/5 Kinross

7/5 Barrick

7/5 B2Gold

9/5 Anglogold Ashanti

Gold bug is a badge of honour. Our cohort of "smart real money" holders and buyers of PM's is still tiny. But if you can hold on I think we will soon find we were way ahead of the heard. Now relax and enjoy the ride higher.

Last sentence should read..."and under owned miners starting to get noticed for their bottom line growth."

The world's largest gold mining co. , the only gold miner constituent of the S&P 500 reported Q1 results after NYSE close last night. Newmont reported :

Record Free Cash Flow for Q1 of $1.2bn

Production of 1.5m oz gold, 35,000 tonnes copper

Average Realised price Q1 $2944 a 40.8% on Q1 2024

AISC Q1 $1651 a 14.73% increase on Q1 2024

Completed divestiture programme announced in 2024. Received over $2.5bn towards final total expected $4.3bn

Reduced debt by $1bn

Delivered returns of $1bn to shareholders through share repurchases and divi

Declared a Divi for Q1 of $0.25 (Newmont pays a Divi every Qtr)

Comment: If a lumbering mega miner can produce record cash flows and a strong balance as a result of the record gold prices, it bodes well for the next cohort of the "major multinational miners" including Anglogold.

The average AISC of the top 25 companies in the GDX ETF is around $1500. So Newmont is at AISC $1650 one of the highest for costs per ounce but its Q1 average realised price of $2944 was a record Yr on Yr rise of +$854 p oz +40.8% on Q1 2024.

After NYSE closes tonight Agnico Eagle reports their Q1 which I am expecting to beat analysts estimates.

Today is a Comex options expiry date for the cartel to play their paper price games. But as of tomorrow it will be all about gold as real money and the still undervalued and underlined miners starting to get noticed for their bottom line growth.

Teac I'm flattered that AI has quoted me word for word what I wrote on here, (20/3/25 16.26 ) about the 2025 average gold price run rate.

All things being equal the Q1 results should impress as they will include a 100% of Sukari's Q1 whereas the Anglogold FY 2024 only had 40,000 oz Sukari contribution.

In the Q1 figures I want to see evidence that they are maintaining higher margins while controlling costs.

I would like an update on the Nevada project North Bullfrog's regulatory approvals expected in Q1 2025. If agreed, it it could get to first production by end of 2025.

Also an update on the development of the Silicon project in S.Nevada.

I note that this is the first Qtr without any hedging. With the rising gold price I am expecting the company to keep paying down their debt level.

In the last few months Gold is increasingly being sought by central banks and institutions as a preference to depreciating USD and Treasuries. Gold miners will be major beneficiaries of this reallocation of capital. And retail investors haven't really started investing in this sector yet as the financial media continues to ignore it.

In my view we are still early in this bull gold bull cycle. Anglogold is well place to thrive.

YTD : S&P -4.6%, Nasdaq -10.4%, Nikkei -10%

YTD : gold +19%, GDX +35.5%, HUI +30.8% , Anglogold +60%

Assumption : that you own the same number of shares by value today as at the takeover.

Anglogold USD price x number of shares you own = $ total value

Convert USD total to GBP

Divide the GBP Total by the number of CEY shares you held prior to takeover = 1 CEY share value in GBP

Add 0.098 Special dividend to the CEY share value

= CEY equivalent price

Based on last night's Anglogold close at $36.50, I calculate the CEY equivalent price at 206p. A decent rise of +43p and +26.38% since the agreed terms of shares and cash value at 163p.

Gold's break above $3000 and the problems sourcing physical gold bars for delivery ex. LBMA is starting to get gold investment back in the portfolio debate after years of scorn for a non yielding asset.

Gold YTD +15.75%

GDX ETF YTD +33.38%

Anglogold YTD +56.89% reflecting the leverage effect of Gold miners over the gold price rise

I follow 10 major gold miners including Agnico $53bn m.cap, Newmont, Barrick and all US or Canadian listed 2nd tier Co's. YTD Goldfields share price +65.76%

YTD Anglogold +53.9% 2nd best out of 10 Co's followed

For FY 2024 the average gold price received by Anglogold was $2394 p oz

In 2024 Anglogold ran a hedging programme which cost $86m for the derivatives

In 2025 YTD the gold price is averaging around $500 p oz run rate above 2024 gold price received

In 2025 Anglogold have no hedges

Perhaps some think the Anglogold share price at $36.11 is getting pricey. Consider that Agnico and Goldfields both hit their new ATH yesterday with gold above $3000 p oz, most of my followed co's remain undervalued to the current record gold price or even that of 2011 at $1925.

Anglogold share price currently 26.7% below 2011 peak and 42% below ATH $62.47 of 21/8/87

Despite the rally in gold since December 2015 and the acceleration since March 2024 most investors still own little or no physical precious metals or mining shares. After such painful patience with Centamin I feel the really big moves in the PM share prices will come when the average institutional and retail investor scrambles for gold as a USD alternative to try to retain some purchasing power of their capital.

Amazingly only 1% of investors have taken out this gold insurance so far in the USA and in Europe it will no doubt be even lower. Hold on.

price

With hindsight the excellent Tier 1 Sukari asset has never had a true entrepreneurial CEO to lead it since I started buying in 2009. I held on for the dividends and the knowledge that the gold cycle is long and gruelling but knowing the ultimate gold mine share price gains can be spectacular at the end of a gold bull market. This up cycle is already 9 years old...and accelerating with gold's price breakout in March.

However, Horgan, Jerrard and Rutherford chose a short term 'city' deal that suited them and the insiders over the rest of us. They know that the gold price is going to go a lot higher and that they were only going to get a recommended deal if it was 'reasonably priced' for Anglogold. The "scheme" launched while the share cheap and under-owned suited their agenda.

With my former role in mind I can say that their rational is not surprising to me. The financial elite run a financial system in their control, for their exploitation and special privilege. That explains the new Executive share options just after the 'scheme' was announced and the 20m new shares to make all their unvested options vest with the takeover. Huge "gratis" financial rewards with no risk of their own capita. I hope that the shareholders who sold out got some profits but feel we were grossly short changed by our Board and the "scheme".

I have opted to fight back by taking the new Anglogold shares and cash. I anticipate the greater interest in gold stocks on the NYSE and Anglogold's geographical distribution and 3m oz production will help the stock to post solid gains to the price in 2025.

Finally, thank all of you for your informative and educational contributions to this board. I shall miss the Centamin investor era.

Apologies I now see I missed the 14.50 RNS confirming the acquisition vote in favour.

Will we get an RNS on the vote result at the market close today ?

Hold on. Now is not the time to be on the sidelines or trying to day trade. This is a Jesses Livermore time to "be right and sit tight".

It looks like silver has finally broken out and above the Comex paper silver resistance at $32.50. It is currently trading at $33.62 +$1.92 +6.05%. This is the highest level since March 2013 and will now likely lead to a fist breakout target of $37.

Gold tends to respond favourably when silver takes the lead and the timing is interesting ...just before the BRICS summit starts 22/10.

So gold is ending the week at a new all time high and silver has only just achieved 60% of it's 1980 high. I expect further advances for PM's and PM miners next week.

Typo : it should say ...we will only get another CEY divi if Centamin is still independent as of Q4 results around 18/1/25.

Thank you MrBond. The official offer document anticipates (hopes for) a completion of the takeover scheme during Q4 2024. If so, we would only get another CEY divi if Centamin is still independent as of Q4 results around 18/1/24.

Let's say for example, that Anglogold is short of a majority with the vote at end of October that still gives them time to sweeten the deal (most likely by increasing the cash element) to get the deal competed by year end.

That process might take another month to present and have a second vote at end of November. Then they could complete the takeover and distribute the new Anglogold shares and the cash element by 31/12/24.

B of Am. are now forecasting gold to reach $3,000 by end of this year. That would be a 50% rise for the year and would likely fire up institutional and retail gold interest and buying.

But of course the banks and hedge funds have been piling in (front running) since 10/9.