Member Info for Markyess

Very much in agreement. FWIW, I don't think the company will have a viable base price to consolidate from *until* it demonstrates that it can stand on it's own two feet. Simply put, that's generating any kind of profit from Diamond Creek with assurances on future sales (growth) AND the Nayega exploitation license in hand, and shovels in the ground.

Consolidation is far easier to orchestrate, and if I'm to receive funds back from the company, I want them as a dividend, not as a buy back of my equity.

I think there'll inevitably be a consolidation, but it won't happen until there is an announcement of operating profit and potential dividend payment, or share price in excess of 0.5p driven from positive newsflow - whichever comes first.

If you check slide 15 in the latest corporate presentation, the company laid out their projection in production growth. I'd be loathe to try and speculate on quicker progress as I don't understand the market well enough.

It'd be nice to see us get there quicker, and that will be subject to the barriers to enter being weakened. The US protectionist methods against African and Russian phosphate will perhaps be helpful in speeding up that market penetration progress.

It certainly can't hurt!

It'll be nice for macroeconomic factors or geopolitical decisions to work to our advantage, for once!

For sure. I'm generally 'bottom drawering' Keras, even with the positive progress on Diamond Creek. The company will absolutely hit true value, but I almost wonder if it will need first reported operational profit AND a dividend payment to fully wake it up and generate sentiment, which, Togo aside, could be 2 years away. (Worst case)

I'd hope the market would be a bit more responsive, but in the meantime, I see the more immediate returns from this leadership stable coming in West Australia.

Hey PC

To keep it simple, I calculated using $200/t profit (so, retail just shy of $300/t) at full sales/production levels - leading to proportionate profit p.a. to Keras of £3.6m when at max output.

Somebody on Twitter had posted 48,000 tonnes at $400/t = $192,000,000

I didn't have the heart to pick them up on the misallocated decimal point increasing profitability tenfold, their failure to include costs (on an already inflated retail price) nor the fact its not a wholly owned project....

Bless them.

Quite simply, NPV (of all projects combined) and Market Cap should be broadly the same in a perfect market. NPV represents the value of future profitability of the project or company discounted to today's money. Each year's projected profitability is discounted by the rate you'd essentially expect to make in a bank to get a sense of how much that money/project/company would be worth today.

Simply put, for Diamond Creek alone, at a project NPV of ~£40m and today's MCap at ~£8m, target share price should be around 5x today's price when the market has confidence in feasibility of the sales and production ramp up. The DC project has *at least* 45 more years production from current proven reserves, too. Not bad for a £2.5m loan wherein we'll get our investment capital back too!

That's also with Togo (and any imminent new/future projects or expansions of existing projects) fully discounted to zero contribution.

I did some very basic number crunching on Diamond Creek last night, our 51% share, based on a 5 year conservative production ramp up, assuming no increase in retail price (so, just $200/t peak profit) gave an NPV of ~£40m over just 15 years production at 5% discount rate.

I would agree with a conservative projection of 12-18 months on Togo, based on nothing more than hindsight and actions of our board currently. By nonl stretch of the imagination should that translate to 'cutting losses' which would be insanity at best. You don't give up on an NPV of ~£90m (conservative with upside) because you have a few bored or frustrated private investors.

As a comparison, check out the history and travailles of Beowulf Mining (BEM) on their Kallak iron project in the eminently more developed jurisdiction of Sweden.

At least our board are not sat on their hands and are furthering opportunities with potential for solid and consistent returns. You know that when returns start, they'll likely hit on and invest in another Calidus style opportunity at some point.

@mil09 - ref your question to RL on Twitter. Your answer is in the Corporate Presentation. It's prudent corporate projection.

'The Diamond Creekproduction profile has been designed to build market share from 2% to 14% over a 5 yr period –this targeted growth is modest to take into account the barriers to entry but is underpinned by the superior quality and the very competitive price per phosphate unit'

If the company can grow market share quicker, it can exploit higher levels of production (up to the max) quicker. It's not quite as simple as dig up the maximum tonnage you can and sell it.

Welcome to doing business in West Africa.

Chill your boots and be patient.

There's only so much Keras can do, and there's only so much that can be said publicly.

Patience, grasshopper.

Pacific Time is GMT - 8 hours

From a cost management perspective the company is operated by minimal personnel.

Might be a different matter when and if Togo is up and running.

Provided the £1m raised more than offsets itself in Enterprise Value, and derisks our portfolio with another project, I couldn't disagree with you more.

Africa is a difficult place to do business, you are making the deadly error of assuming there is more in the BOD's control than there actually may be.

Pushing on with other projects is eminently sensible - and - as I said, so long as the raise more than proportionately impacts EV, then shareholders should have few concerns.

Without the approach, we wouldn't have had Calidus - in fact - we wouldn't have a company today.

That's all a bit of a lesson in helping the family matriach learn the process of masticating poultry zygotes....

The only word of relevance there is 'potential'.

Put these in your bottom drawer.

Pre dilution, I was holding 1% of the company, I have no reason to and am not deramping. Just be realistic, be rational and see the information that is put in front of you.

There was nothing to suggest that there is a new project imminent. The wording is clear that we've raised for OPEX. Looking for opportunities is simply part of the 'day job'.

In the very best case scenario, there may be a neighbouring tenement in Utah or Togo we're picking up, but at this juncture, so what?

Yep. Following the trend of hundreds of junior explorer/developers that have gone before us.

Keras is going in my bottom drawer for the foreseeable. At least it created and spun out value in the Calidus venture, which places it above most others.

There's still value to be had, but in the short term, it's not worth the emotional capital alongside everything else that's going on in the world.

Catch you all in due course. Good luck in the mean time.

If you check out the recent Calidus news release and do some background investigation of the investor, you will know not too worry unduly about the current market irrationality in Oz.

That MCAP is now sub what it was before announcement of full funding suggests a good time to be rattling those sofa cushions for this opportunity to invest further.

All the best
Mark