Member Info for Markyess

Current resource and LOM gives an NPV of ~$472m, which would see a 3 fold equity growth from current levels, plus annual dividends from a ~$60m post tax profit (closer to ~$80m from year 2).

We already know from indicated and inferred reserves, mine life is going to be substantially greater, before you layer in the priority drilling targets and other tenements such as Otway, and strike/depth drilling at Blue Spec / Blue Spec East

I could see LOM and NPV doubling within the first year of production, and further growth into Year 2 and 3.

Probably. At some point. It will be company defining when it happens, but don't rely on it being imminent.

A major reason behind the Diamond Creek acquisition (along with it being a great quick start opportunity) is that it secures the company financially whilst we await the typically very slow business in West Africa.

IMO there is as much chance of the license arriving next week, as there is next month, as there is in 5 years time.

The company has done all it can, the next steps are truly out of the control of Keras. In the meantime it has secured its financial future through the Diamond Creek initiative (that will also deliver good medium term returns), it is exploring other quick start initiatives. We just need to hold tight - or take a gamble and pursue quicker returns elsewhere...

I'm grateful that it is a free carry for me after the Calidus divestiture, I can sit and wait - as frustrating as it is.

I can't see my own post unless I go into 'Thread' view. For a while, I thought I was going to have to write it again.

We got an update in the last RNS, we're on target to hit our 2021 sales estimates. Sales updates further than that will now be retrospective in half yearly and yearly results/reports. The only reason we got the RNS on the first sale was because it was the first sale.

What further news (other than the Togo license) do you think will have an impact on price? Commissioning of our own plant will be lovely, but is not going to drive up value in the short term, as we had mitigated production and supply by extending the Third Party contract. The new plant increases margin - but that is more material to our NPV in the medium term.

IMO, the only news that will be material here will be Togo, or a new quick start project. Both require patience.

DentyManly - you are duly filed under 'clueless'.

This company has already returned over 5x its current MCap to shareholders by divesting it's start up gold project.

The Corporate Presentation proves you flat wrong, Dentymanly.

Stop wasting our time if you can't make a sensible contribution.

Indeed, it will be a great and positive step to be able to do our own processing (and so deliver improved margins) when this year's extraction recommences.

It's not currently preventing us from 'doing business' though, given the extension of the third party processing agreement. I do think that subtle point has been lost in some quarters.

At this point in our development curve, sales growth and building the market is a far bigger (unencumbered) priority than cost efficiency.

It's simple logic - the current MCap barely covers the NPV of Diamond Creek, even at current low production and first year sales levels, due to the volume of material and LOM.

The Nayega project, once operational, offers significant, company defining value and as yet, is not seemingly acknowledged in Keras' NPV/MCap - it is, in essence, pure upside at current price.

Utah is - undoubtedly, but commissioning of the plant is not new news, it should already be priced in (I do believe there is current market irrationality towards Keras FWIW). Utah is and has been in production for months, the plant improves margin.

Utah phosphate derived growth is going to depend on sales development. The market already knows that the operation can exceed extraction targets and that unit costs will fall.

That's a helluva bump on wishful thinking, reading into the positive vibes about a reporting calendar change!

It's a decent administrative move, but it's a bit of a reach to see it as preemptive of any new news. We know the Utah plant commissioning is due any time, anyway...

Don't get me wrong, I'll be frigging delighted if the Togo license drops this week... Or we announce an additional quick start project in another 'friendly' jurisdiction... but for now, I doubt it.

So I get a share price alert on my phone stating Keras has had a 22% on day price spike. On what?

Are we being pumped on the Twattersphere, or do we have loose lips in a leaky ship?

I've been in far too long to get too excited and usually assume it's the Pump and Dump gang having some day trade fun.

I think that's the first RNS that has ever sent me to sleep.

The original PFS talked of first pour in Q1 of 2022, now it is talking H1, so would seem to suggest Q2 is the more likely timeline.

Kit like that will need proprietary commissioning and sign off by an engineer from the manufacturer. It's a bespoke piece of precision kit, not a Kenwood toaster needing PAT test sign off.

It will be what it will be. When the guy can travel, we'll make progress.

Frustration breeds speculation. It's understandable. The notion of Togo taking the project on for themselves would be catastrophic for them on an international commercial front, and it would be impossible for them to hush up, were they to be seen to bleed out an international organisation on exploration and development and then pick up the 'easy' money.

In the main, this will just be the frustration of working in a developing world country and the pace they move at. It sounds like we're progressing well with the Ministers and Mining Department, we need them to 'sell' us upwards to the President who will have ultimate say on the green light....

Keras PLC has very few employees. Given we've had a couple of EGM's inside the last 12 months, other than formal business, there probably isn't much to talk through. Better that they get the motions agreed and then spend their time cracking on.

Yep. We know that *some* of the production run was used for marketing via free samples, but taken as is, we should assume that sales are progressing well. The fact they see us on target for our next year's sales numbers is incredibly positive.

It was important that the company announced the first major sale, as it was the first - I think that in some areas, there was then an expectation that all subsequent sales would be reported to the market. I would not anticipate seeing any significant or specific reporting on sales numbers now outside of yearly and half yearly reports - outside of the occasional general indicative statement of progress as provided in the RNS.

Positive news about marketing, positive news about sales, positive news that management's decision to increase extraction last year paid off, and positive news we have been able to extend the third party processing agreement.

Not much that can be done about the delay commissioning our own plant. The key is, wheels are still turning, we're still growing business and selling produce, even if at a lower margin for a few more weeks.

When Togo finally flips, my first glass of bubbles will be toasting Cyprus Steve. Rest his soul.

We've already had first order. We've already extracted a year of material. We've been producers for months now.

The new plant is a cost reduction means to process the ore ourselves, rather than incurring shipping and processing by a third party's plant.