Member Info for Markshares

This site is useless for anything other than chat, advfn is good for everything but chat

For me the main thing lacking with new investors is patience. A lot of people join AIM over the main market because of the increased volatility and chance to make multibags in a matter of days if you get lucky. I think this ties in with a gamblers mentality and the worse part of this is the need for instant gratification which leads to impatience and either selling at a loss or selling long before a peak because that 10% rise looked so good on paper.

In my experience it is far easier and more successful to build a portfolio of 5 to 20 stocks that have been taken to new lows on the back of no news (HVO obviously a good example so far) whilst also retaining funds to average down when price falls by 20% on no news or looks to have bottomed out.

I did email Fleur from investor relations on Friday but no reply yet.

21

And pre AGS results, and pre £21m of contracts, and pre announcement we will turn profitable in 2019, and pre announcement of large number of contracts in discussion

I wonder if HVO would consider a buy back with their cash in the bank covering so much of this SP, and SP itself being so low?

Ignoring the late reported trade we have 4:1 buys to sells today. I think this will rally, consolidate, rally, consolidate for the next couple of weeks now.

Do not under estimate how important a blue day is here, if bid finishes above 21p it says the seller has cleared and HVO should begin to move up in short order

kopfkissen, given that you seem to understand they release an RNS each time they climb a percentage, you must surely know they have to alert every time they fall through a threshold. Could you point out an RNS where any institutional investor is reducing since landowne's last?

People need some patience here, the buying pressure is the important thing, not the current share price. MMs are carrying a lot of stock and we know they don't like to take positions in stock for any longer than they need to. They won't start raising the bid or ask until they are clear or near clear as day traders would start to take some of the sells away from them.

All that matters is that every sale is eating away at their reserves. Once they are at parity again, this will move up extremely quickly if the volumes stay like this.

To be fair, the sum of sales were not that miniscule although individual days moved a lot more than they should have done on small volume. The total I observed over the two months was 1m (probable) buys and 3m (probable) sells, plus about 700l that I couldn't assign either way.

Just three hours of trading today took a large bite in that.

Yes, I hope people use ADVFN to check volume, LSE is useless for that.

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&symbol=L^HVO&xref=shareprice_trades

The most important factor in any rise (or fall) is volume. Our average volume has been 82k a day. 3 hours in and we are at 750k volume, and rather uniquely, every single trade has been a buy.

If this re-rates back to the £1 of a couple of months back, we have all 4.5 bagged before news on Flu-v comes.

I don't really see what could be bad news when it comes to flu-v, but I'm open to the discussion with any pessimists/shorters here. If there is no buyer or collab deal (which seems the realistic "worst case scenario"), then Trevor has said we will do it alone.

Either way, we'll have a universal flu vaccine moving to phase 3, and doing it alone means a much larger payout if it passes.

Early yesterday, level 2 had 150k on the bid, and 350k on the askm later on this rose to 1million on the ask. It is my belief that this was the last of Lansdowne. I would hazard a guess that the MMs agreed to buy all of Lansdowne two months back at a guarabteed lowly price of 22 in exchange for the risk in holding so much. They then walked the price down in the hope of some/any buying en route.

With my calculations yesterday of 3-3.5 million plus the sudden level 2 jump of 850k in available stock, leads me to believe that was the last tranche of Lansdowne partners being taken as they max they could possible hold was 4million, though I expect it was a bit under this.

Looks like others agree with the above given the level of buying. The only thing stopping this flying now is the stock that MMs hold which is now clearing fast

Someone find pmatlock and tell him to get back in, he was a decent guy for most of the time

I've taken 2x5k

Wow at 200k buys already, for reference the past two months had 1million total from what I remember. If MM didn't hold so much stock this would be flying already

It is finally the time to average down, buying promotes buying and we will be the first in!

In my opinion and calculations we will get a very large sell printed after hours either today, or in the next couple of days but dated back to today, and Lansdowne will be fully sold up.

I also don't believe that retail investors will be the only one watching this.

So I crunched some figures.

Lansdowne Partners fell below the 5% threshold on 26th September. It is impossible to know whether that meant they have 0% left, 4.99% left, or any value inbetween.

80.58 share in issue means would mean a maximum of 4.029m left.

There has been sales volume of between 3m and 3.5m share sold (depending how you treat the 500k unknown from 14th November) making various assumptions on what is a sell and buy. Of this volume, I believe 2.5-3m has been institutional selling (larger trades that are rounded numbers).

I guess everyone has to decide for themselves if the above means Lansdowne are clear now.

It is reassuring to see the selling has stopped, at least for now. A few more days without drift, or a positive finish on any given day and the buying will creep back in. I think there will be a lot of people currently invested, people who used to be invested who still follow it, and new people who have followed it for a while waiting to get back in. The only thing that stopped me buying anymore was the rate of decline, effectively taking a gamble that the price would fall further before I took a new position.

Big seller aside, this was never a bad buy, and the investment case looks incredibly strong now:
Market cap at only £16m.
Announced £20.9m new contracts in the last month alone.
"Currently negotiating a high number of contracts" (RNS 20th Sep).
HVO to turn profitable and generate cash from its operations in 2019.
Positive Preliminary results for AGS-v
Positive results to take Flu-v all the way to phase III

I think all we are lacking is good PR - Trevor Phillips is just the sort of man you want leading a Pharma, but probably just the sort of man you don't want leading all the interviews in terms of passion or charisma.