Member Info for MarkBellUK

That's a very tough call mate...I would guess IG will bounce tomorrow though

Re. IG its worth noting that brokers estimates are circa 284m where as SJ has 338m, hence if he's right there should be a nice lift due to beating expectations...all things being equal....which they never are in the market..

Written by Sailing John on Advfn summarises well@-

Just crunched some headline numbers for IGG 2H/FY based on their 1H/Q3 and TS from 24/4 (IG FY TS this week 4th June)

IGG 2H is Dec19 to May20
Rev 2H £430m FY £680m
Opex 2H £192 FY £342m
PBT 2H £238m FY £338m
eps 2H 53p FY 75p

And my model for PLUS $ and £ for comparison with IGG
1H20 Jan - Jun 2020
Rev $637m - £510m
Opex $135 - £108m
PBT $502m - £402m
eps 2H 300p FY437p

Spot the difference?! Opex! ----> Bottom line
Relative valuations (IGG MC more than double PLUS) - Bonkers!
Mr M has a little catching up to do when PLUS reports 1H TS (July?) and results (Aug?)
dyor etc. SJ

PS IG has a PE of 15.8 PLUS will be under 5 on the new earnings

They could be guessing on a month end rns tomorrow.....

Yes 1950. It just means that they will BUY at the crossing price as long as its equal to or below 1950. It does however push up the UT and hence the closing price though. They put such a high price, as the volume was high, to insure their trade went through (i.e enough liquidity).

From a bad memory someone dropped an order for circa 37000 @ 1950! Obviously it crossed much lower but drove up the price a little..which was nice!

Because I was watching the book during the post market auction (DMA with level 2) when someone placed a BUY order on the book for a volume of circa 117,000. This formed part of the overall UT (170, 907 volume) and gave the book the overall BUY weighting which is why the UT shows as a BUY

Nice £1.6m BUY just dropped onto the auction book

Yes mate, they seem to have on going issues. This was with both the old and new websites as well!

That make sense to me Oli. Also I am guessing there are significant director buys afoot anytime soon

Difficult to call BUT this might help us:-p

Thursday, June 4th 2020
Full Year 2020 CMC Markets PLC Earnings Release
Thursday, June 11th 2020
Full Year 2020 CMC Markets PLC Earnings Call

>Looks like to me they chase revenue and spend more to acquire more customers when needed... and the narrative is what ever sounds good to spin it.

You raise a very interesting point and one that ive been discussing with an analyst. To understand this we need to look at their cumulative return. So a 2015 104m investment returned 95M in 2015, 85M in 2016, 62M in 2017, 63m in 2018 & 27m in 2019 (totally 332m). The 2016 125m investment returned 360m in total and the 2017 117m returned 496m (as 2018 was 278m).

The point is the 2020 investment for Q1 & Q2 is already 106m+ so this will have far reaching impact into the revenues of 2021++

Hi gg

Yes you are right my mistake.... Although if you take 2018's $720m revenue with net profit $379m (operating profit $505m) = 52.6% so 55% might not be far out! Very rough rule of thumb...

100% of 2019 net profit proposed to be distributed to shareholders - equivalent to a total of $151.7 million, consisting of interim and final dividends totalling $71.7 million and $80 million in share buyback programmes:

2018 Including the final dividend, a total of $229.7 million (2017: $199.6 million) is being returned to shareholders, consisting of dividends of $227.4 million and an initial $2.3 million of a $10 million share buyback programme in the period;

2017 Total of $199.6 million being returned to shareholders, consisting of an interim dividend of $27.2 million, a final dividend of $92.6 million, a special dividend of $72.3 million and a share buyback programme of $7.5 million which was executed during 2017;

The numbers are getting silly

So "Cash balances as at 31 March 2020 were c.$515.6m* "..so they are sitting on at least 700m now

Revenue for 2020 I'm pretty certain will be over a billion but say 950 (also discussed with professional analysts who agree) @ an operating margin of min 55% (*was 70% in 2018, 2020 could be >70% given lower ARPU and massive + in customers)

So 522m profit MIN/ 106.7m shares = $4.89 split 50/50 divi/buyb = 2.48 a share

Its worth remembering that the buybacks were still active yesterday at over 1300. Hence if the mm's working for PLUS still have authority to purchase at these levels from the directors, im sure the directors are still keen to top up themselves at these levels.

Also I have from a very knowledgeable source that the profit distribution of dividends and buybacks (Rns states min 60%) will be 100% (as it was in 2018). We are looking at serious returns, even on top of this momentum

I think we may see some more director buys this month or next....

>well mark looks like 1340 ish is the top

In what time frame?

I find it more difficult to hold a big profit than to a big lose , so I totally understand.

However for me, unless I wanted to hold cash there is still no better option than PLUS, with massive dividends a 99% certainty as well. Also I sold out in 2018 pre a 12% PLUS dividend! and watch it up go ex divi (check the charts)

To be fair Berenberg already have revenue at 815m is their last note (29/4/20) -and their math is wrong - missing 40m+!....Liberum's note 28/4/20 has it at 732m, but I expected both these to be upgraded again