Member Info for MarkBellUK

" Lufkin has not been charged with conspiracy yet he has named a number of Petrofac executives"

Explain that to a jury. ie. You've given a statement admitting conspiracy yet have not been charged with conspiracy?

Again for me (and im dont have all the facts to give an opinion on where or not a DPA would be the best option) BUT what I do know is you dont set up a serious defence team spending tens of millions on this THEN issue a "bring in a bitches" RNS to then settle for a DPA. Youve also got to be damn certain you have a water tight defence before you do this as well. So they either f up'd royally or are going to win this! You pays ya money ya takes ya chances. Im in ;)

"I don’t see how PFC can fight this out, the guy has admitted his guilt"

He has BUT in PFC words he was " former employee of a subsidiary company.". This is the bit im unsure on but that says to me that his sentencing carries no financial penalty for PFC

The extremely difficult stage for the SFO is now providing direct participation by PFC in bribery. Payments where made in good faith (commission agent fees etc) by PFC, but proving their knowledge that monies where being used to bribe is a completely difference ball game. Its further complicated by the fact that one of the main people who may have known is now deceased. Its starting to look like a can of worms IMHO. If the SFO can get a "win" with unaoil + Lupkin they may well see that as their pound of flesh. This is the juncture we are now at. A massive trail against PFC could well back fire on the SFO. Any witness testimony that implicates a co accused in order for reduce sentencing is pretty much worthless

Barratt Developments Plc : Canaccord Genuity raises TP to 620p from 600p

I agree this could go either way BUT shorts have already reduced over 0.6% this month which is significant

My GUESS is PFC are going to fight this out rather than a DPA. For me two facts are pivotal. One is that Lufkin has gone guilty and still no direct charges have been brought. The second is Semaan is deceased with Lufkin appearing to implicate him. Good luck getting to the bottom of that

My2p...you know as well as me its the PFC merry go around. All is needed is patience in the face of noise

At least its stabilised. Its just a waiting game now for decent results on the 28th and hopefully contract news.

To be fair this has done well today given the moody's change of outlook, although they have not downgraded which would be significant

Thats an easy one
PE Ratio (f) 5.82
Dividend Yield (f) 7.69 %
Valuation (ttm)
Price to Book Value 2.57
Price to Tang. Book 3.19
Price to Free Cashflow 10.2
Price to Sales 0.29
EV to EBITDA 35.7

Moody's rerate affirms Ba1

7.69% Live yield

NOTE net profit 2017 shows at circa -$30m on multiple sources BUT 2018 estimates that will be released on the 28th ALL SHOW over $300m profit..this combine with oil @ $55/ $65 its looking good..once again the market needs to catch up

Debt has been an issue but one of the reasons I came in long is the way it has been dealt with (and will continue to be)
To be fair to Paul he is eluding to operating margin. To be honest its a concern of mine as well. It has been very low since 2012 and especially an issue in the last 3 years. BUT this is set against a back drop of a now much stronger oil price and personally if this stock was fair value (i.e 650P+) I would not invest due to this. HOWEVER this stock is under 400. I will worry about operating margin when 600 is on the horizon

Yes Im pleased it crossed under my bid so saved a few quid!

PS I used to subscribe to Infront which shows ALL shorts. You tend find they actual amount is about doubled disclosed

The system is worth looking at buts it expensive :-

https://www.infrontfinance.com/

Thanks will do

I also use Research Tree will has this on it (now I bother to check lol) :-

https://ibb.co/JBgXg59

Thanks Auson where do you get your data from?

PS Note that the CFD provider who is long in the stock but offers the short via CFD may sell the stock once the short is closed. It depends on the firms hedging policy

They do flood the book with small sells slowing reducing the price per set. The mm's or orders on the book then counter and buy these. Further problems then come when traders with DMA then see the book loaded with sells and drop theirs on. Then in turn the price starts to move down and PI's jump on board and also start selling. Note this also works in reverse sometimes when short positions are closing, shares been bought to replace those borrowed. However the majority of shorts are CFD so the underlying stock is held by the broker or institution (who shorts via CFD meaning no book interaction)

I had an order on the book at 430 when the price was 480 and it dropped that fast when a massive volume sell came in sucked most of the book buy orders in seconds!

"U/T was at 381.5p ... SP will open at that 2moz .."

SP opens at the price of uncrossing trade from the pre market auction 0750-800

re Topping up..I genuinely dont think you can go wrong sub 400

Every estimate I see for the full year earning release (28/2) is in the $300'sm NET PROFIT region which is the best for 5 years

So briefly these are the points of interest. The zero fibonacci is 346 from the major collapse (820 -> 345). There is not much recent activity in the area we are currently in (only May- Jun 2017)

In terms of trend lines im going back to 2007 to get anything meaningful in a sub 400 range! Support at 360, some oscillation between 360 & 400 over a 5 month period (we might well see this again now)

The Fibo Zone algorithm I sometimes use (on Trading View) shows support at 379, which matches support level 2 on current Pivot points.

The bottom line for me is we need some BIG contract news