RE: 4.8p16 Sep 2024 17:09
Some Placement Maths and not so dilutive after all. Most here bought on the market soon after placing or took steps via the placing. My story shows the dilution to be not so bad as thought and that is dilution of ownership (ie ignoring we now own a bigger beast). This includes all shares consideration (NEM), retail (us) and institutional (II).
Many narratives including this relate to how dilutive the 4.8p placement has been. I know we are all in different position based on LTH or higher/lower average. I feel I am representative of those which a substantial 5 figure £ holding around 1m shares after all the shenanigans of the last few days.
So I started the month with about 450K shares average at just under 7.2p. A cost of £33K and sitting on a £5K loss at 6p prior to the placing. Now I had about £25K cash (in a short term cash fund for personal/retirement reasons). I decided to use this and added £2K hanging around as unspent dividends for the placing. Of my £27K, £20K was successfully placed and most of the remaining £7K was used to top up on the day that trading recommenced. This gave me an 1m shares at an average of 5.84
So that's the background. Now I know there are a lot of assumptions below but start with an alternative placing price at 6p (no guarantees Wyloo or Newmont would have agreed but just say they did). I am using 13.1billion shares after 4.8p placing - and calculated 11.5 billion at 6p
At 4.8p I started with 450000 shares, I got 425000 in the placing (2 bites at the cherry between accounts) and finally I topped up 125000 at 5.4
At 6p I started with 450000 shares, I would've got 333000 in the placing and topped up 110000 at 6 (I am assuming 6 and that we wouldn't have the same uplift gain since the placing).
Given appropriate adjustments this leaves me 2.5% diluted from the %age ownership of GGP I had before and after the placing but at current SP 6.3 I would have 10% less money (10% less shares). I can live with 2.5% less ownership if I am 10% better off (and that is disregarding that I now own 2.5% less of something 3 times as big)
If the placing was higher then dilution would be more and the gain would be less (as my original shares would be worth more). So its just a single scenario but the conclusions the more shares you had to start with the higher the price you needed, and the less you were able to top up at placing prices the worse off you were.