Member Info for marik

PhD in chemistry my ****! You can't find a basic research paper on line or for that matter provide a link. Uselss!

Folks (non-shorters), this is what it comes down to. Unfortunately, when challenged to produce the evidence, there is utter refusal combined with "*****" expletives. I was expecting a robust response, but instead I got the tail between the legs response of "...there’s little point sharing it with you."

Do they actually know what they are shorting? Last week was a clear indication of how the market reacted to the presentation. Note that the day before, the resident shorters crew had gone to task with deramping. It didn't work and are now working overtime on the weekend.

"I have drilled a lot deeper thanks and there’s little point sharing it with you."

AKA

"I'm lazy and don't know what I'm talking about and have gone quite in case I get caught out."

@13thmonkey

Exactly, it literally says "...the life sciences division of the South Korean LG Group, triggering an undisclosed milestone payment."

In the same RNS it goes on to say;

"The partnership also provides LG Chem ... and Avacta could earn up to $55m in milestone payments for each of these new products. "

and

"Avacta has established drug development partnerships with pharma and biotech... a multi-target deal with LG Chem worth up to $400m..."

You can't compare them, if you have any questions, you will notice a lack of willingness from @mart to provide further details on the aldoxorubicin thread. The use of pro-drugs isn't novel and has been around for a while, what is different about AVA6000 is the precision. It is markedly better than what has gone before.

It is undisclosed. However, the agreement was $55m in milestone payments for each new product and the deal was valued up to $400m. That gives an indication of the scales involved.

@mart,

You make the comment that it's comparable without looking at the original paper and make a statement starting with "you know what...". And then continue with further excuses. That to me is layman speak for either you are lazy or don't know what you are talking about.

Pro-drugs are not new entities and have been used in this context for a long time. The difference between AVA6000 and other pro-drugs is the precision hence the importance of being able to drill deeper.

"Why don’t you go look up the references"

Why don't you do your homework instead of copy and pasting from others?

End of subject.

@mart, that's a copy and paste session from a review. Can you provide something more comparable?

Whatever happens next week will be interesting, however this last week has really put things in perspective. The presentation and results have been well received and the share price and market clearly reflected that. Sir Al pulled it off quite well and the attendance of big pharma at the event underlined the importance of Avacta. Great news already.

@gje, it's the usual story, a lot of derampers going from one position to another to fulfil their aim of trying to dissuade people. The initial narrative was the Sir Al wasn't talking positively and his presentations weren't good. After his presentation the share price has gone up. The narrative prior to that was Affidx production was minimal and suddenly complete silence after the revelation of 1 million already in progress and increasing to 2-3 million for the UK alone.

@mart,

"Marik I never suggested for a moment that AVA6000 will not reduce the toxicity in patients. I merely tried to use Aldoxorubicin as an example of the fact that not all trials yield exactly what is expected . We can’t be sure of the outcomes no matter how good the data from mice."

So you have no evidence but just wanted to make a comparison. What's the pre-clinical data comparison between Aldoxorubicin and AVA6000?

The £6Bn will inevitably cause some anxiety for those shorting, with Phase II being pivotal this will be very telling as to how the shorts start going quite over the coming weeks and months.

"AVA6000 will be pivotal at phase II. No phase III required as there is a full body of data across multiple populations across decades of use. It is effectively a variation and change - not unlike putting it into a tablet rather than a capsule or vice versa. (I'm pretty sure the company stated this already anyway)

Ophidian"

@Ophidian, I would have to agree with you on this point.

The take home is that Affidx is being scaled up rapidly, HUA is in progress with Medusa19 in the picture and very pleasing and positive progress on AVA6000. In all, this will inevitably cause some serious anxiety for shorters. This was underlined with the share price movement from last week which went up instead. Furthermore, personal comments about Sir Al's method of delivery have certainly been put to rest.

"Clinical validation study of Avacta's AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 antigen lateral flow test carried out on 98 positive COVID-19 samples (31 with Ct<26; 65 with Ct 26-30 and 2 with Ct 30-31) and 102 negative samples demonstrates clinical sensitivity of 98.0% and clinical specificity of 99.0%. Additional data obtained post-period end from a further 134 negative samples has further defined the clinical specificity to be 99.6%."

It was very informative that the number of samples clinically tested has increased by 134. It brings the net total of samples to 236 and further lays to rest any views that this won't be sufficient for various governments. Secondly, the specificity has risen to 99.6% and implies Avacta is well placed for the future.

From expert opinions in the industry we are aware of three things, a) the use of lateral flow tests is set to remain in place for the next 12 months as a minimum, b) as the virus continues to mutate and cause issues across the world especially during winter season, the use of lateral flow tests becomes more main stream for beyond 2022 and c) the market for lateral flow tests in general is set to expand substantially beyond covid-19 as the necessary infrastructure for use and distribution has come on line due to this pandemic.

In all, this implies that Avacta are well positioned to benefit from this. There have been suggestions that the covid-19 antigen testing market will remain strong even till 2027 with a global sales still hitting over $8bn per annum. With Avacta being one of the best tests on the market and the current increase in production capacity in the UK, and market penetration in Europe and RoW, I believe that Avacta is set to play a major role in the diagnostics industry. The testing arm of Avacta will in my opinion return billions per annum similar to the therapeutics arm.

Good luck all.

"If the study shows that the pre|CISIONTM technology is effective in reducing systemic toxicity of Doxorubicin in humans, then that would open up an extensive and proprietary pipeline for Avacta of next-generation pre|CISIONTM pro-drug chemotherapies with significant clinical and commercial advantages in a chemotherapy market that is expected to exceed $74 billion by 2027."

I thought I would put things in perspective after the recent presentation, starting off with Al Smith's statement for AVA6000:

"very pleased with the positive progress"

A lot of data will already have been fed back and certainly will have informed the St James's University Hospital being brought online for another cohort. A further three sites will become available shortly with the sufficient patients to complete. By Q42021(end) to Q12022, the data will be extremely rich and if it continues in the same direction as we have already realised will result in a big rerate.

The chemotherapy market is expected to exceed $74 billion by 2027 and with positive data from AVA6000, this market size will inevitably increase as the number of patients being treated will also increase. My estimation would put this closer to the 1.5x to 2x increase in the current market or potentially more. My view is that this has a potential to for Avacta to gain over £6Bn worth of profits. This doesn't account for the other streams of revenue and implies that Avacta are fast becoming of interest for the Big Pharma. This was evident already in the attendees at the recent presentation.

Naturally the above information and the positive nature of the feedback on AVA6000 has caused some anguish for shorters and combined with the other positive news, it means positive news for LTH, i.e. Avacta are on an upward trajectory.

GLA

Conifer haven't gone and they are a supportive investor which was clearly stated during the presentation.

Didn't think you had a response @mart instead you are rattling on about smiths tune. As per usual the same old pathetic story.

An interesting post @mart, but unfortunately I don't agree with your narrative. What evidence do you have to suggest that AVA6000 will not reduce the toxicity in patients?

Have to agree @gj... I'm getting the same old from the same crew.