Member Info for marik

@LiveLearn.
"...bringing capacity online is a very slow process as has been proved to be the case"
We are already at 1 million tests per month post validation of batches, we'll be at 2-3 million. We've been told that we are expanding rapidly. If it's taking too long then you should sell - as I said you sound unhappy and this doesn't sound like a share or in fact a market for you.

@RD, again not sure what you are getting at? Being vague doesn't add to your mysterious lure.

@LiveAndLearn what shares are you more bullish about?

"Firstly we need to get to that 2-3m p/th capacity"
GAD is already at 1 million tests per month and Abingdon Health are going through the validation batches - that's pretty much done (not slow slow, but fast).

"and then we need to sell at that capacity before we stand any chance of reaching higher."
M19 have taken a technical file through to a regulatory body in Europe, and are making good progress. Avacta are already selling directly to corporates and travel & testing in the UK and Europe. Calibre are already selling directly.

"The price of tests is coming down..."
This isn't something to be surprised at, it's already built into the equation. Last year industry experts were able to predict the price range that these tests will sell at. They are at that price point as we speak.

"... and the market will be flooded with quality LFTs..."
This is speculative, we know that Avacta is one of the best tests in the world. There are very few tests out there that are similar, so not really an issue.

"Yes, with APAC and HUA, high revenues are indeed possible but without........steady revenue"
Yes APAC and HUA are in progress to be brought online and revenues will be steady.

LiveAndLearn, from the sounds of it, this isn't a share for you.

Best.

I'm estimating profit from Affidx will be in the region of £150m-200m per year for the next three years or so. How this will reflect on the share price should be very positive.

@Doctor100 I'm quite confident in those figures. The presentation on Thursday was very telling. Although the market opened lower on Thursday morning, the sp went up overall and the market reacted positively. This was a resounding yes.

Although we talk of Affidx manufacturing as being 2-3 million per month, what is interesting is the scale up efforts going on in the background.

Currently Avacta have a manufacturing capacity with GAD at 1 million tests per month and Abingdon are bringing on line a further 1-2 million per month (t. 2-3 million per month).

Both GAD and Abingdon can be scaled up further (i.e. >2-3 million from the two). Avacta are also well advanced with putting in place European and Asian manufacturing that would very significantly increase those numbers when they are required to be switched on. In terms of sales as well as Avacta directly targeting big orders, Calibre are currently in the process of targeting other territories outside of Europe and Avacta are working with new distributors in the APAC region who are opening up the markets via regulatory approvals (which are not difficult). APAC represents approx. 37% of the antigen test sales and is a significant market (2020). M19 have taken a technical file through a regulatory body in Europe (which is with them for approval) and we are making very good progress.

With that in mind, it looks like Avacta are not aiming to settle at 2-3 million per month and are likely to expand manufacturing **very rapidly**. This could be many multiples of where we are right now of 2-3 million per month. This would certainly derisk the investment significantly.

I am not surprised in the slightest that Trinity Delta currently value Avacta at £710m (280p per share) - and we are trading remarkably under 2.5x that price. Any hint of further scale-up and/or Medusa 19 gaining self-test (home use) approval and their marketing and media machine kicks on, I believe this is likely to have a significant impact on the share price.

GLA

From Myles McNulty's tweet yesterday, it was interesting to see his opinion on how Avacta will fair a relatively short term:

"I see nothing remotely close to #AVCT, in having the potential to do 5x, 10x, 20x or more from the current level, in a relatively short period.

Most people need it spelt out in black and white."

In my opinion I think that it is being conservative with the multiples. Once AVA6000 Phase 1a pK data results are out and LFT sales are firing on all cylinders I think this could surpass the above expectations.

@gje I thought that was quite a funny play on words.

@Losta, I read this aswell and also found it very useful.

@Losta, I would predict that the valuation would be much higher. Taking both the therapeutics and diagnostics into account I would say a minimum of $8Bn

In a recent paper (September 28, 2021) from the Netherlands, affimers can now be used for the enrichment of monoclonal antibodies in the treatment of breast cancer from human plasma at clinically relevant concentrations. This encouraging application ensures that sufficient amounts of both therapeutic antibodies can be captured for further analysis, with little or no interference from plasma proteins. This adds to the growing uses of affimers in the medical and life sciences further underlining the future ahead.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.analchem.1c02807

ChiefHelmet and Timster, you've been hounding this board for while and the rest of the board has had to put up with your utter garbage for the last year. Give it a rest...
Cheers ;-)

@BITL. Thanks for the advise and offering your opinion. Again we all have our opinions of what is right and wrong and on a number of occasions I have wondered about your strange comments. Don't mean to give you a lecture on pot and kettles, but you get the picture. The breadth and scope of what I write isn't a matter for discussion and I certainly don't do so to gain or ask for approval. With that in mind I'll reiterate for you my previous comments - you are more than welcome to filter.

BITL . Should Jupiter jump ship, you will certainly see a price change when the other shorts run as well. You are entitled to you opinion but try and refrain from the dictating. You have an option to filter people and if you don't like what I have to say, you are more than welcome to use it. Thanks ;-)

The worst part is when they sit on their hands for no reason, for example Dialight they went short 1.42% at 265p it's currently 370p. You will have other examples where they literally reduce their short for no clear reason - naturally some of the unexplained movements will be due to a hedge, but all in all it's not looking good for them. What is amusing is that Blackrock have a short on Jupiter which shows how much faith they have in them.

Jupiters policy is erratic and they will jump without notice and sometimes without reason.

I can only reiterate, my conclusions which remain the same. Tomorrow we will be 1 week away from the next cycle for AVA6000. I maintain the following view. The strong conclusion we can draw from the last week is that both the therapeutics and diagnostics arm is about to announce news. With AVA6000 progressing well (Presentation), Affidx for sale to Gov. Departments (Medusa website), LG Chem providing a resounding endorsement of Avacta (RNS Wed), HUA submitted and ready to go, this looks like a very strong momentum.

blocked this clown as well.

LOL, as per usual nothing constructive from the crew. Look guys you shouldn't change jobs.