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Markets are getting more volatile. Still, I think this is just a tree shake in the absence of hard news. So far as I can make out the business is doing very well. As Peter Lynch reminded us, “in the long-term, there is a 100% correlation between the success of a business and its share price performance”.
While it always feels bad to temporarily relinquish paper profits, a bargain-basement price could solicit a cheeky bid. If SEE were to RNS it (hint, hint) I feel sure the share price would respond, as would other bidders.
Pv2,
Just to be clear: the press release from Smart Eye said: "Smart Eye receives a new design win for driver monitoring system (DMS) from one of Europe's largest car manufacturers. The estimated revenue for the order is SEK 50 million based on forecasts for the estimated product life cycle. The potential for additional orders for this new platform is estimated at SEK 500 million.
http://www.corp.smarteye.se/sv/press/pressmeddelanden/press-detail/?slug=smart-eye-erhaller-en-design-win-fran-en-ny-stor-europeisk-biltillverkare
It was Redeye who decided to guess it would be worth SEK550m. Given the failure for past contracts to grow (JLR + AUDI) you'd be unwise to make the assumption SmartEye has. I admire your faith in SEYE.
If it is Stellantis, maybe Chrysler? https://247wallst.com/special-report/2021/09/12/this-is-the-worst-car-brand-in-america-2/
Re. VW, my skepticism centered around comparing a first tranche of A$125m to this A$7.5m taster as if they were in any way comparable. And no I don't think it is VW, more likely Dacia. Time will tell I guess.
Separately, guys and gals, don't take it personally but I don't think anyone who has held this stock for less than 5 years has the right to ***** about the share price....lol.
The Redeye note defies logic. VW has the first tranche of A$125m then a 2nd at A$7.5m? C'mon Redeye.
Okay, second guess...Stellantis, one of its crap brands. SEYE investors should by now have twigged not to believe the hype.
The only good news is that even its young analyst doesn't dare mention the words 'King of DMS'.
See's reign will be short only because it will be taken over by a mightier power. Hard to believe it is currently valued at sub 9p but then we don't have very efficient markets. Proof of how crazy they are? This woman is selling her farts for US$1000 a jar: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2022/01/08/90-day-fianc-star-sells-farts-in-jars-then-suffers-health-scare/?sh=2846ea7036fc
Brockwl,
I wasn't arguing against having a model but, as you yourself have admitted, you don't have the necessary data for it to be realistic. Worse, you're applying share price targets on top which, while it may comfort you, aren't grounded in reality.
At this stage, you might as well get a fag packet out and scribble something on the back for it is likely to be as accurate as any share price target you come up with.
Brockwl,
I admire your chutzpah.
How can you be confident that you have created a financial model that can predict See's share price years in advance? Even trained financial analysts get it wrong most of the time and that is just predicting a year in advance.
Certainly, it's clear that as we grow revenues will increase massively later this decade. Where I really differ from you is the likelihood of a bid long before then. The Bosch bid being a case in point. If the price offered is attractive, say £1 for argument's sake, Institutional Investors will be happy to sell.
SEE are the best, I believe, as I've had it confirmed from a variety of sources external to SEE, some of whom have good, even intimate knowledge of their rivals. Colin Barnden also thinks so and he is the most expert independent industry analyst that I've encountered.
Re. takeover, I think it will most likely happen when the bulk of the immediate batch of our auto RFQs is assured, which is certainly this calendar year -- probably the bulk comes over the next 5 months. I think, as Paul McG suggested in a previous interview, that by this June future revenues stream will be far more transparent and predictable.
That said, Magna and QC have an inside track and know months before it will be RNSd the contracts that SEE are set to win. It would be odd if they didn't try and bid early before we rocket up on firm news. Still, as others have said, they are unlikely to be the only bidders; Amazon, Alphabet and Apple can all use SEE tech for everything from transport to robots. Intel, AMD and Nvidia also want a piece of this pie.
A$1bn auto pipeline, with huge Fleet growth, aviation to come and other sectors eager to take the tech. It is going to be a fascinating few months. Maybe we should have a bet on which month the bid comes in? This has to pop this year.
Btw, do you think a bidder will wait until we list on Nasdaq to make a bid? I doubt it.
Boris Johnson is a reckless, corrupt and incompetent bugger. A new Covid variant is a real probability, given 3bn unvaccinated people on this planet. GDR has the tech to benefit from this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/28/uk-covid-vaccine-stance-global-vaccination-levels-reckless-experts
Testing isn't dead. Indeed, the world may never be the same again.
https://www.understandinganimalresearch.org.uk/news/research-medical-benefits/the-increase-in-zoonotic-diseases-the-who-the-why-and-the-when/
We won VW, no reason to be concerned about the business. We'll certainly get more auto wins this year. Fleet is performing well and we've got very capable people running it. Aviation making steady progress.
Market players know how good SEE is. Once the order books grow a bit bigger the bids have to come in. A sensible bid will set off a titanic struggle to take this company over. Opinions are cheap but SEE has been working to a plan for years. Long-term holders who do research know what I am talking about.
Hold your nerve, don't invest what you need for the very short term. You'll sleep better at night. Soon it will be our turn to pary like Boris Johnson.
When Boris goes do you think it could affect the government approach to Covid? Testing capacity will probably be retained as Covid is going away for good. Indeed, it is rising and we can expect many more variants.
SEE is a sitting duck for any industry player with the sense to offer a decent bid. I'd like to start the bidding at 30p...the fat gentleman with the beard and the big balls at the back...Amon...35p.
Thanks for the reply Inphobe.
What's the assessment of holders re. this company? It seems to have top-class tech, yet been a bit unlucky re. achieving big commercial sales up to now. The ability to identify a gene that makes a baby susceptible to deafness from an anti-biotic was once the stuff of science fiction, yet it has proven it can do it. I expect that to be a big success in UK and Europe. Surely, in due course a US company would be happy to take that on and bear the expense?
The Covid tech seems to work well too and although approvals are needed, it is only our crappy government that is likely to hold it up. Happy to be corrected if I'm being a little too naive. Thanks for the quality debate from some of you ;)
It doesn't look to me as if Covid is over. The change of focus by media is all political as they try and convince us that Russia is wrong to try and defend itself v. NATO expansion. Here are some stats re. Covid: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=USA~ITA~CAN~DEU~GBR~FRA~JPN
Anyone know what the price target of Peel Hunt is on this stock? Thanks.
Hi All,
Thanks for the previous information. This appears to be quite attractively priced.
From the last FinnCap note issued on 9 Nov 2021 the target price for Genedrive was 85p. Does anyone know when the last Peel Hunt note was issued and what its target price was? Thanks.
It seems it is spreading quickly: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/ba2-omicron-variant-cases-england-b1998151.html
Clearly, Boris Johnson doesn't care how many Brits he exposes to danger if it maintains his grip on power.