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That was quite predictable. Markets are down and set to fall much further. Re. SEE dual listing, Stifel is motivated more by the fees than the benefits to us PIs. Besides, the time has passed for a Nasdaq listing being a golden ticket.
If SEE do need a raise - and the silence on that front is deafening - they should do another 'strategic' raise AFTER announcing further auto wins and Fleet partnerships. They then should do all they can to communicate near-term profitability. [SEE has previously claimed it doesn't need cash but its credibility is probably shot to pieces on that front (at least with fund managers), given previous assurances that were swiftly followed by fundraises].
The reason for haste is that it's clear things are going to get very ****ty from now on and into next year on political/military/economic/ fronts. Covid, climate change, proxy wars between US and those challenging its hegemony in Ukraine and elsewhere (Taiwan?) will all feed into increasing political /economic instabilty.
While the UK isn't the whole world conditions here are also going to deteriorate further and faster. The prospective Tory leaders seem determined to cut taxes and benefits and provoke a showdown with unions even while economic growth declines further.
IMHO, our best bet for a great exit is QC buying SEE after the auto contracts/fleet/aviation news establishes a) profitability close b) pipeline secured. If all the talk of a dual listing has encouraged Christiano Amon to get his wallet out, it was a great strategy. My hope is that it happens before Xmas.
I fear that if we are forced to hang about for another 2 years before a takeover, we risk a lot of pain/dilution. I'd rather avoid that.
SEE has China covered via QC. (Let's also not forget that MG, Volvo and Polestar are Chinese brands now).
India shouldn't be ignored. It's a huge market for cars and advanced driver monitoring is taking off there. Indeed, SEE relies on the efforts of many very clever Indian engineers! Useful interview here: https://www.autocarpro.in/interview/sachin-lawande-every-second-car-in-india-to-feature-touchscreen-82131
" ADAS is coming to India in a big way now. With ADAS and more driver monitoring, that’s looking for signs of distraction, fatigue, it can address the safety factor here in India. I think what we need to do in the automotive industry is own the responsibility of making the driver experience both convenient and safe."
This was so predictable. See just have no clue how to manage the share price.
The only thing that is yet to happen is some newbie, with only a few thousand shares, to come and tell us that this fall is a buying opportunity.
This fall isn't down to a market rout, as other stocks are going up. If PM or anyone who works for him is reading this: now would be a good time to release some positive news, SEE as PIs need reassurance. Reminder of news you could choose from:
- Another Japanese OEM win
- Fleet partnerships
- Fleet contracts - eg, Coca-Cola.
- GM Ultra Cruise
- Auto contract extensions - Ford.
- Rail
- Aviation
Nice post Seeing2020! I think the audience watching this now realise the takeout price for SEE just went up by a few billion dollars.
Next gen cars will have a captive audience for in-car entertainment and SEE-tech crucial to enable them to interact with the AR world. Watch the video from 20m onwards and try not to get excited about the prospects: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5iIQSYmYkE&t=1253s
Nick DiFiore is understated but you can feel the opportunity. See and OEMs developing the technology, implementation, how to use processing and memory to deliver the AR vision.
Apple certainly have a reason to want to own SEE and they develop chips.
Terry, I completely agree. Btw, news of the Cipia Chery win made me smile as it was a car brand I'd not heard of. As PM has said previously, SEE aren't bottom feeders they're going after the serious contracts and winning them.
SEE is tightly held and it won't take much institutional investor (II) buying for this to rise significantly. The catalyst for that is likely to be fleet or aviation news that brings forward breakeven. Together with additional auto wins pumping up market share and the overall pipeline all the brokers will adjust their figures and upgrade. (The risk is minimal, the trend is clear). The upgrade will encourage new IIs to buy in....which in turn will increase the share price. Call me an optimist if you like but that's how I see it panning out over the next few weeks. Paul McGlone still has an outside chance of getting his shares and what a legend he'll be if he does.
Even given macro market risks this is too compelling a stock to be out. Too much good news coming. However, DYOR.
SeeingTom,
I cite XSG in order to demonstrate that a huge share price rise is possible on news - there has been some debate about holding news back until markets stop sliding.
I agree, XSG share price has performed poorly, its market cap is low and SEE is a better business. That's why I hold SEE and not XSG. That said, XSG is an interesting company.
Maml74...I don't think "significant upside potential" really is as punchy as "transformational". When we win huge Jap+US auto contracts I look forward to seeing that word in an RNS. Perhaps our PR needs to take some lessons from a grade-A bull****ter...I hear Boris Johnson will soon be available.
Those arguing that SEE should hold news back because the markets are volatile need to realise that stocks rise on good news no matter what the state of the overall market. Just look at XSG today - its revenues are a while away and even its broker didn't upgrade today - though it will.
Given that our largest shareholder also holds a chunk of XSG you'd hope that our next RNS win, instead of focusing on giving minimum values might squeeze in the word "transformational" somewhere. Certainly are lessons to be learnt in managing the price. SEE need to keep up the newsflow, particularly as the word on the street is that we are winning everything.
That really was the worst interview I've ever seen Martin give. He's clearly a beaten man wondering when his investors will launch a class action lawsuit v. him. Even the so-called Redeye 'analyst' looked embarrassed.
The amusing part was hearing Martin running through all the names of car manufacturers that have been won by Seeing Machines...he stumbled over Volkswagen.
It's probably still not too late for SmartEye investors to make some money by switching to Seeing Machines but time is running out. Lots more wins coming I reckon. Of course, DYOR.
Hi Lewbo,
Thanks.
Thanks Lewbo. Great read. I'd forgotten so many details.
Btw, looking forward to a Fleet telematics section in the near future. I believe we already have Mix Telematics, Eroad and Geotab but expect some significant additions in due course.
New Euro NCAP assessment protocols, which come into effect in Jan 2023 should also give SEE a boost.
Look at 3.5: https://cdn.euroncap.com/media/67892/euro-ncap-assessment-protocol-sa-safe-driving-v1001.pdf
You and me both Terry.
I can literally feel the momentum building, either that or I ate too many baked beans for lunch. Just need Toyota and we have the full set in auto. Tesla can either come begging or look like numpties (no offence Numpti mate) when Fisker launch the Ocean later this year.
Well done Schnorrer and thanks for pointing it out Seeing2020. So we probably have big news coming in a few weeks. I can't SEE PM letting those shares go down the dunny when he and his team have done such a great job.
Cubo news is good but they're small fry. I want to hear about a fleet license deal with a huge European telematics company. That would boost revenues very quickly and really impact the share price. C'mon Paul, light up that barbie and I'll get the beers.
It seems there is a lot of scope for Seeing Machines interior sensing to be used in the marine industry, perhaps starting off in European waterways. This isn't pie in the sky as there are moves afoot to address this issue in Europe (which as we know has an appetite for using regulation to improve transport safety:
https://www.inlandwaterwaytransport.eu/human-factors-root-causes-of-accidents-in-inland-navigation-report-on-human-machine-interface-and-wheelhouse-design/
https://www.inlandwaterwaytransport.eu/wp-content/uploads/Intergo_Report-phase-2a_final.pdf
While this is certainly a few years away it's one more reason why a chip company would want to own SEE.
I used to hold this but sold out just before the share consolidation, luckily making a very small profit. However, I thought this a very interesting company and so have kept watch over the past couple of years. I thought it might have IP that was valuable as it did employ legal specialists to protect it. That's why I'm surprised at the statement that key patents have expired. Can anyone direct me to the source that states this? Many thanks for your time.
Before you let Mr Market have your shares on the cheap think about the news that is likely to come out over the next few weeks. This share is de-risked and clearly going to capture the lion's share of a fast-growing, global market in auto (not to mention fleet and aviation). This was 13p at the time of the Ford win in June 2018, when it was much riskier - Bosch was sniffing around then.
Its business is in far better shape now and I think we're seeing that with every month that passes. Remember Warren Buffett's wise words: "Price is what you pay; value is what you get." Have faith in your own research. If you've not done any, do some.
David,
There are various ways it will happen.
1) Brokers will raise targets on the back of contract wins, visible growth in revenues, and the prospect of profits. Similarly, more institutions will buy into SEE on this basis.
2) A bid will fast-track this process.
It's not rocket science.