RE: Only a matter of time4 Feb 2026 17:36
As SB has mentioned Boeing 2 or 3 times in recent interviews, it's worth looking at a similar direction of travel on the other side of aerospace with Airbus, and what that tells us about where we could eventually sit in the value chain.
They recently signed a multi-year titanium supply agreement with ATI Inc., which is a good reference point because it shows how Tier 1's are thinking about securing the metal side of the titanium supply chain and what could eventually happen around Boeing further down the line.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ati-signs-multi-year-agreement-with-airbus-for-titanium-plate-sheet-and-billet-302466655.html
ATI don't mine but they do buy titanium metal feedstock, mainly titanium sponge, and convert that into billet, plate and sheet for aerospace and defence customers, which is where their Airbus contract sits.From research, ATI source sponge from Japan and Kazakhstan and while Japan is already viewed as a secure and trusted supplier, Kazakhstan sits in a less friendly category, particularly when compared with Australia, which from a Western supply chain perspective would be viewed as significantly lower risk given its rule of law, long mine life and geopolitical alignment.
ATI are focused on sheet and plate rather than producing titanium metal from scratch, so the idea of us supplying ATI directly today doesn't really apply given we are currently a high-grade titanium feedstock story rather than a sponge story, which places us earlier in the chain but entirely possible to add to our string of options.
I see 2 options for us, firstly TiO2 feedstock. This is effectively already defined for us today and, importantly, it represents roughly 95% of the current global titanium market. While sponge metal naturally attracts higher headline prices, the reality is that the pigment market is where the scale and volume sit, and that is the market we are fully aligned to serve through high-grade feedstock at the moment. It's also where early offtake agreements are made, with pigment producers / processors looking for secure, long-life supply. Companies like Tronox are the main target.
Titanium metal is option 2.
This is where ATI sits and where TiCl4 to sponge is a possible route to market for us. Yes higher prices, but also also higher costs, greater complexity, so it is not the be all and end all, but having that optionality, which SB has referenced repeatedly, would be commercially prudent as it provides exposure to both ends of titanium demand.
The direction of travel for the titanium industry is clear for me anyway, with growing demand across pigment, aerospace and advanced industrial applications over the coming decades, some applications haven't even been created yet.
DYOR
ML