Member Info for Mamms

If that's the view, it's a pity they don't do something to advance the project.

Shareholders listed on the website with more than 3% have 52% of the stock. LG was cutting them in, so what's the delay having an EGM and pushing it through? They mustn't be able to reach terms? I mean if even the top 4 agreed, they be more or less guaranteed to push it through. Am I missing something?

Battle, the Government gave BEY 2 weeks to come up with a commitment for the development cash and BEY came up with that commitment within the 2 weeks. All that's happening now is some internal company admin (including allocation etc.) but the company can draw down the cash tomorrow if it is needed. The ball is back in the Department's court for some time and they need to now take a decision one way or the other. I assume they are waiting for some big distraction (or a power outage or something) if they are going for a 'yes'.....

Thanks for posting JODO. I get what they're saying - LG went too far. If the other large shareholders participate then they can't vote so the deal might not get through the EGM 'cos all the little guys are being roasted. However, I'm not sure what the alternative is. If the deal is voted down, where else will they secure the funds? No funds, then no licence, then no company....

Anyone able to post the phoenix article? I'm abroad so can't get a copy.
The deal was so unlikely I'm not surprised it's coming with extraordinary terms. No cash guarantee then game over. Giving up most of the company (+ more on drawdown) for cash guarantee is not much better. In economics you are taught that for a thing worth X you should pay up to X-1 for that thing BUT in the real world, at a certain point people will judge a thing to be unfair and throw it in the ditch first. Larry is certainly testing the limits of that ....

Anyone able to post the phoenix article? I'm abroad so can't get a copy.
The deal was so unlikely I'm not surprised it's coming with extraordinary terms. No cash guarantee then game over. Giving up most of the company (+ more on drawdown) for cash guarantee is not much better. In economics you are taught that for a thing worth X you should pay up to X-1 for that thing BUT in the real world, at a certain point people will judge a thing to be unfair and throw it in the ditch first. Larry is certainly testing the limits of that ....

Notionally it's the department, not the minister that takes the decision. Still, I can't see the Department rushing to issue the licence. Goodman will need to get stuck in if this is to progress, else it will just wither on the vine....

Has anyone asked the department what the timeline on a decision is? A what point is the absence of a decision, itself a decision? Looks like we are going to find out....

BEY could try to take a mandamus action against the department - basically it would be asking the high court to order the Department to do their job. Courts don't like doing it but it looks warranted here.... Say 'yes', say 'no' but don't say nothing.

I guess the issue now is whether Ryan will ever allow a permit to be given, or even if the permit is given by the department which is 'independent' (yeah, right) that it won't be bogged down in the courts until it's all moot. I don't think a permit will be given in a useful timeframe - i think it would be the end of Ryan, and while I think he is a total moron, i don't think even he is that stupid. I haven't examined the deal Vevan did, i was wrong - i didn't think BEY would be able to raise money, it cost 90% of the company though as I understand it. I think the country needs BROE to work out in a big way - for all the talk of renewables, Ireland is the 4th most dependent on fossils with about half the EU renewable average of 22% in energy use https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/DDN-20230119-1 so anyone who thinks we don't need BROE and Corrib and more since is delusional.... sounds like the regular shareholders got done over here...

What happens if they get refused permission to do the appraisal drill? .0000000000000000007p a share will probably cover it.

It would be 'brave' of any politician to greenlight BROE in the current atmosphere (wall to wall COP27 coverage). I can't see it happening. If BEY or LOGP don't meet the conditions in their application, that would be a big help for their decision (save the Government from future lawsuits) but I don't see a permission to do the appraisal drill being given in any circumstances.

I don't disagree with the idea that its unrealistic to be totally reliant on renewables anytime soon. I'm just saying that's what Mary Lou (and everyone else) means when the talk about Irish Energy Independence.

A lot of people are saying that BEY and LOGP could sue if they are not awarded a licence - if the Govt refuse to issue a licence even though they meet all conditions, then yes, there may be a case to sue. However, if they do not meet the conditions (and it is shown that the Govt are right) then there would be no basis for a lawsuit.

When politicians in Ireland say they want energy independence - they are talking about wind, tidal, solar and other renewables. They are not thinking of fossil fuels.
https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/f4c68-ireland-moves-a-step-closer-to-energy-independence/

Yes, I agree. Sorry to suggest otherwise - it just looks bizarre from a distance.

Hi Swiss, the initial cost for 1 well is actually just over €80m - PVR's share is €65m. Remember, this is still appraisal work seeking to de-risk the project. If it all goes well, there will ultimately be an investment decision (or not) in 2024.
This is set out in a letter to the DECC in a letter last February:
o PVR’s share of the cost of the envisaged appraisal well and associated pre-development technical studies is currently estimated at $65 million, which will be sufficient to carry forward the Barryroe project until a Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2024.
o Subject to the granting of the Lease Undertaking, the Board expects to finalise proposals to fund its share of the costs of the Barryroe appraisal programme through 2023.
https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?hash_primary=96A51C3F716F226B393497CB50EA4D04BC506A82

So maybe BEY'll get a partner but if you look at what they actually say in that letter to the Govt, they say " PVR’s appraisal drilling is typically funded entirely through the equity resources of the licensees." which maybe doesn't require 5bn new shares @1.5p, just 4.3bn.

I saw the bad new issued on Monday and then saw loads of people on this board saying 'what great news'. Now, I don't know if they are in an echo chamber or are deliberately misleading so they can try to exit, but to be clear, what PVR/LOGP have been told is that the Govt want to see their money before they get a licence. The Govt have a 3rd party report to support that Govt decision and reasoning. BEY do not dispute this in their RNS, they simply say they will see how they can address the financial position. Whatever happens now, shareholders will get royally done over. It's a firesale to raise cash or they are gone. Even if they get 9bn shares at .75p, I think the prospects of changing the Govt position are vanishingly small - if Ryan is politically-suicidal maybe but otherwise no.

A final point here, no one will ever say in an RNS, 'that's it - we're donald duck ed' - they'll say things like 'it's an unrealistic timeframe' which means it can't be done, or 'we'll consult with our shareholders' which will be an extremely short consultation....
That's how I see it. This is VERY BAD NEWS and if you don't see that, then you need to question whether it is hope over logic.

Hi Swiss, the initial cost for 1 well is actually just over €80m - PVR's share is €65m. Remember, this is still appraisal work seeking to de-risk the project. If it all goes well, there will ultimately be an investment decision (or not) in 2024.
This is set out in a letter to the DECC in a letter last February:
o PVR’s share of the cost of the envisaged appraisal well and associated pre-development technical studies is currently estimated at $65 million, which will be sufficient to carry forward the Barryroe project until a Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2024.
o Subject to the granting of the Lease Undertaking, the Board expects to finalise proposals to fund its share of the costs of the Barryroe appraisal programme through 2023.
https://docs.publicnow.com/viewDoc?hash_primary=96A51C3F716F226B393497CB50EA4D04BC506A82

So maybe BEY'll get a partner but if you look at what they actually say in that letter to the Govt, they say " PVR’s appraisal drilling is typically funded entirely through the equity resources of the licensees." which maybe doesn't require 5bn new shares @1.5p, just 4.3bn.

I saw the bad new issued on Monday and then saw loads of people on this board saying 'what great news'. Now, I don't know if they are in an echo chamber or are deliberately misleading so they can try to exit, but to be clear, what PVR/LOGP have been told is that the Govt want to see their money before they get a licence. The Govt have a 3rd party report to support that Govt decision and reasoning. BEY do not dispute this in their RNS, they simply say they will see how they can address the financial position. Whatever happens now, shareholders will get royally done over. It's a firesale to raise cash or they are gone. Even if they get 9bn shares at .75p, I think the prospects of changing the Govt position are vanishingly small - if Ryan is politically-suicidal maybe but otherwise no.

A final point here, no one will ever say in an RNS, 'that's it - we're donald duck ed' - they'll say things like 'it's an unrealistic timeframe' which means it can't be done, or 'we'll consult with our shareholders' which will be an extremely short consultation....
That's how I see it. This is VERY BAD NEWS and if you don't see that, then you need to question whether it is hope over logic.

That's a complete misrepresentation of what has just happened. LOGP have said they can't raise the money by 21 November saying it's an unrealistic timetable - basically BROE is dead and you see this as good news?

I understand the desire to be positive but I think you are misrepresenting what has just happened. The department has said they have to show access to the necessary funds to do the 1st stage of development (circa €100m) before they will be granted a licence. Now, the not so learned may say that those rules (to show the money up front) were only put in place in 2019 after the initial licence was sought. However, they were in place when THIS licence was sought (sure, go to the high court and sort it out in 2025/26). Even if they have backers who say, we'll underwrite this by issuing 5 billion shares @1.5p or whatever is going to happen, LOGP have been clear to say, it's not going to happen for them by 21 November - they say, it's an "an unrealistic timetable" i.e. it can't be done.

So despite all the positive spin, this decision is the end of BROE- it's madness but there it is.

It's actually quite clever by Ryan, there will be no law suit either as the department aren't refusing to grant the licence, the partnership just can't come up with the development cash (and before you start talking about how easy it would be to get the money, they couldn't raise a few hundreds of thousands in the past and twice failed to raise the cash so there is a strong track of failure - hence the reason the Department can claim justification for requiring to see the money up front).

Run.

The thing is, I'm sure there is a lot of discretion in the award of a licence. You can be sure Ryan took advice before saying, 'show the money up front and I'll consider giving you a licence'. I can guarantee one thing, Goodman et al will not put 10's of millions on the line to protect a one or two million investment. It seems crazy to me, give them a a licence, see if there is oil or gas that can be developed for winter 2024 when things will really get bad, and it costs the State nothing. Instead, he's protecting his reputation with his constituency - so much for the good of the country. Anyway, I think I have said many times that Ryan would never, ever, grant a licence. I'm sorry to be right. It's a genuinely stupid decision.

I just saw this in the paper. Eamonn Ryan will not approve BROE now or in the future. It may be that the Government will fall or that some other event occurs but Ryan will never approve BROE https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/eamon-ryan-doubles-down-on-opposition-to-new-shannon-gas-facility-despite-crisis-in-ukraine-41960872.html