Member Info for Mamms

It's disappointing that, in the short term, developing our own gas fields are not under consideration in this article. We are importing 70% of our gas from the UK, itself a net importer from Norway.

It will take another 20 years at least to make the transition. We will be using a lot of gas and a lot of oil between here and there - whatever the optics are....https://www.irishtimes.com/your-money/2023/11/09/irelands-dangerous-reliance-on-gas-has-big-implications-for-the-economy/

So as expected (by almost everyone), all shareholders are wiped out with BOE going to Larry. Whether he is able to do anything with the shell remains to be seen. Personally, I suspect he won't be able to change the outcomes, but who knows. He could buy LOGP, merge the two into the UK operation and submit a bumper damages claim - if he gave £10m for LOGP and call it quits? I'm sorry for the BOE longs, at least they are being put out of their misery... a sad story all round.

Yeah, it's 'crazy' that two major oil mergers in the past month might signal a reappraisal of O&G, and guess who used to be a senior manager at Hess... https://www.ft.com/content/2f5bc085-6aac-431d-b0e1-812e809553ef

It takes very little to move the sp. I'd say it's just a reaction to the events of recent days, Chevron buying Hess, ESGs falling out of favour.... I wouldn't read anything into it. I expect a rollercoaster until March, then delisting, then.....?????

It's still a cash shell and will remain a cash shell until it is delisted in March - it's a straightforward bet on the outcome of litigation against the Irish State. The State will resist and delay and refuse to participate etc. for as long as possible, for a State, waiting 10 years, 30 years, 50 years is all nothing. If there is a result it will take at least 10 years to play out in my opinion. As with all these things, it can go either way and over time, it may be that the situation deteriorates (for instance there is a global renunciation of previous charters, particularly if 'climate events' accelerate). I expect that by the time 1 March 2024 comes around and then there are only a few weeks of trading left, the price will fall with many gyrations between here and there, all based on SFA. If you are prepared to lock up your money for a very long time and have no better uses for cash, it might be a good bet (there are a lot of 'ifs' there). I might wait a bit and think again on whether to buy....

Just to set expectations - the future business plans will make no reference to the Barryroe oil and gas field or any future business plans that involve LOGP or O&G sector generally. The receiver (the bankruptcy administrator) must show a credible business plan. We already know that business plan will be based on renewables. They cannot act simply to try to take a legal action. Once the court accepts the restructured business (with all existing shareholders wiped out despite what manyana seems to think) then it can also pursue (a) legal action and (b) any other course of action it chooses - since it will be a privately held company, that will be the last you hear about that unless LOGP are involved (but in future, LOGP will find out stuff after the event)

My view is that Ryan and co. have gone for the longest possible option- this would be the strategy if the instruction was 'kick the can as far down the road as you can'. They had 3 months and did not engage until the last day and only then to say 'let's talk about talks'. So does LOGP start formal proceedings or engage? They have to engage now so that will delay the start of formal proceedings for another 6 to 12 months. They are not actually looking to settle, just to delay.

The shell company and the need to reverse into something was flagged sometime back, there is no master strategy and LOGP don't have the headroom even to take advice. Since you can't just sit in the stock exchange doing nothing (in the same way that BROE can't exist just to pursue litigation) they have to leave unless they find a way to do something else. I'd say the price will fall precipitously as we approach 18 March 2024 (when LOGP will cease to trade on the exchange).

Flasher, that coin toss will take about ten years to give you a result, so presuming you have nothing better to do with your cash over that period, it has a 50% chance of being a good investment for you.

You're right, my mistake. Delisting happens 6 months from the 19th September unless they reverse into something or raise 6m quid (both of which seem unlikely but 6 months is a long time)....

I expect (a) the Government will not reverse its decision on the licence and (b) that LOGP will not do a reverse takeover or raise the £6m necessary to stay listed once it becomes designated a 'cash shell' on 14 September. The upshot is that LOGP will be delisted on 19 September if I understand the RNS LOGP issued in July. I'm not sure what the implication will be - last chance to cash out for 8-10 years for regular punters so maybe a large drop or people gather shares to take a position in the event of a positive claim. I'd expect some big moves over the last 16 trading days for LOGP.

PS to the previous poster - I believe the probability of a successful claim to be 50% (actually less but whatever). That has nothing to do with the payout. If LOGP wins its claim, I reckon 10-20 times the current share prices (I think 1-2p after expenses so £20-40m payout) - that will take about 10 years to play out. Of course, if they lose the claim then zero after 10 years..

The good news is that this BS will all finish in 16 days.

Rockhopper have received no compensation to date. It is still under appeal with years left to run.

I would expect any claim by LOGP to take a minimum ten years to complete and maybe longer. If there are a series of negative or positive results, this may alter the dynamic with a settlement in year 5 to 8 being on offer.

The probability of a positive result is at best 50% - anyone investing here would have at least as good a chance down in the bookies putting their money on a 10-1 or 20-1 shot - at least it would be over in an instant.

I'm curious how people view this stuff with LG and BEY. I am happy that LOGP pursue compensation. However, if LG wins through, then in about 2 or 3 years we'd get a new Minister being asked to take a new decision. In which case, he might come to the same decision but with the right basis and process. It will cause a big delay. I don't ever see the BROE field being developed for a variety of reasons. Hence, I'd be as happy if his examership application fails (which is eminently possible) and the firm just liquidates...

BEY looks like the wind up starts Monday. The principals clearly don't see any point in judicial review proceedings....

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2023/07/21/pessimism-mounts-over-barryroe-as-liquidation-vote-looms/

No, Mamms does not agree - BHC got out when it saw the dilution coming and knows that once BEY fold their tents, the sp will drop significantly again. This is a one shot game with a high likelihood of no return. If there is a return it could be a factor of 20-30 on today's prices (so 2p-3p a share) but it may take 10 years to realise it. Not for the fainthearted.

Once, Brandon Hill just quit LOGP.

Only 3 parties have that many shares and one of them (Brandon Hill) have exactly 100,671,158 shares - so they have exited - I wonder who has come in? Probably a vulture fund taking a punt on litigation, or maybe Larry?

10% of LOGP just changed hands less than a week before BEY has to decide on a voluntary liquidation....

Reverse takeover, allows him to sue the State?

Why would you try to ramp up like that? Are you nuts or is there some angle in this for you? It won't be more that they ask for and it is 50/50.

That commentary yesterday is very negative for LOGP. Any award will be almost certainly struck down as the court is 'unconstitutional' and will then have to go God knows where on appeal. Note also that the Department's line - we didn't trust that they could raise the money, comes against a very bad track record of raising finance and heading into bad conditions to raise finance (as firms have to show what percentage of lending is ESG compliant) i.e. the Department's defense is not completely without merit.

Ravenspads is more than a little optimistic in his assessment.......