Member Info for Mamms

The question is whether they can get the bond away and financing in place before the end of April. Larger investors will be having sit downs with Department officials to get a steer on the Irish Government's approach. It seems to me that the general investment environment just got worse - and now all Government parties are on board (with the opposition going apoplectic that they didn't go further). One of the key investors for SPotON has already pulled out leading to the current delay - the bond of course will all be subject to getting permits and permissions, all of which will be dragged out in court, a process not covered by any funding so will be a separate expense. I would not be surprised if more investors withdrew and SpotOn's financing failed - it depends how far it had gotten and the guarantees that investors will get that they can get their money back easily and quickly according to certain deadlines etc. (which will create big incentives for court cases). It's a real mess, ToR could have developed BROE and been a hero back in 2015/2016 but he chose to invest the money available elsewhere..... Even if BROE is all that it might be and there are no problems with the field, I just don't see it ever being developed.

I think it should be developed in the National Interest but the counter arguments are not the nonsense presented here. If the field is developed, Ireland's push for renewables and carbon reduction will weaken. The exchequer will get used to the cash and have no rush for the transition. On balance, the likely outcome is that Ireland will use far more fossil fuels over the next 30 years than if it has to continue to import all those fuels. The point is, there is no likely Damascene conversion ahead - this will be the long term investment environment.

It doesn't look good. Ireland must be a tough sell on bond markets with the hostility to oil and gas etc.

Set backs like today will make it harder to get that bond away. Did someone say the bond was already done?

I read those articles and I understand that it excludes BROE. The problem is the requirement that Eamonn Ryan or his successor would have to issue a development licence before BROE can go ahead - the Indo article rightly points it would be very hard politically for him to do that but on the other hand the Government would face a compensation claim if they don't. The problem for BROE (and the reason I'm sure Lynn issued his press release through IOOA today) is that I'm not sure big funds will be lining up to invest in a bond that might require a compensation action to get your money back (plus interest) if the Minister of the day refuses to grant a development licence. Regardless of the rights or the wrongs of it, it might be politically popular to refuse - and because of that, it will probably never happen because who would invest in a bond in that context? It's a hell of a punt even for a gambler. It's a tragedy because if BROE had been PVR's focus even 5 years ago, they could be in production now. The ghost of ToR strikes again.

I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news but I doubt that bond raise is going to go anywhere. This isn't Brid Smith, this is from the minister of the day https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/revised-climate-bill-to-ban-oil-and-gas-extraction-goes-before-cabinet-1.4473426
It's a toxic atmosphere for oil and gas.

I thought they had got the assignment of interest back from APEC? Now they say it is 'nearing completion'....... There will hardly be much happening until they know who has what...... The consortium must be confident or they wouldn't be exercising warrants but at the same time, that could be a very easy way to balls up the whole thing....

While the farm out is all suppliers with capacity idling and looking for something to do with it, it is keeping the project moving forward and once it is proved up they can get a development partner. I think it's a good result for PVR IMO. There are huge challenges ahead in terms of political and public resistance but at least they move forward and if it is what it says it is, then someone will take it on. When you consider that ToR achieved nothing with BROE over 8 years in difficult but not terrible circumstances to Linn achieving this in the teeth of an apocalyptic investment environment you start to see what a tool ToR is....

My guess is that the only name you'll recognise will be COSL.

I have low expectations. There is a term sheet, no contract. There are 6 consortium members who for now are keeping quiet - if one of them was Statoil that would really be something but I strongly doubt that they are a member. What i expect is that we will see that a bunch of firms who have assets idling (support vessels , inspection, maintenance and repair services (IMR) for drilling and subsea equipment). COSL Drilling Europe are in the same building as SpotOn energy so I expect that they will do the actual drilling. I expect someone will jump up and down saying CNOOC, but it's not, it's COSL and we already had dealings with them. I expect it will the proverbial rag-tag bunch of rebels - I'd imagine they won't have the resources to get past a very hostile public position and the odd periodic judicial review of permits etc. Let's see but I have low expectations.

Just saying....

Like I said on my last post, it would be a very, very brave soul that invested to appraise broe for development.
No new infrastructure (so you can forget oil or even gas). Would they blink if they found (after challenges to every possible permit by an taisce) that there was loads of natural gas that could use some of the Kinsale field infrastructure? Maybe ,but maybe not even then.

In a much better environment they couldn't make progress - don't forget you'll have a Green minister, that lad in An Taisce challenging everything - no, Barryroe will never produce anything.

Before you all jump down my throat, I think it's stupid and it's all about the optics (which matter in politics).

I've lost a fortune on this dog. The sooner the wrap it up the better.

I see the reemergence of delusion. PVR will struggle to ever produce anything. Don't get me wrong, I think it's a missed opportunity and not just the gas - if anyone really believes we won't consumer 500m barrels of oil before we transition to 'fully green' energy (whatever that is) then they are deluding themselves. It's all about the optics. I just read the Irish Times today about the Government formation talks. There is no chance that any Government with the greens will grant a licence. It's just not possible - they're even blocking the LNG plant. Any developer thinking of investing in PVR (or any consortium being cobbled together) will surely reach the same conclusion. Perhaps they will go ahead and play for compensation or something but it all looks highly unlikely. I'd say 2 cents is a lot more likely than 2 dollars. Even if the Greens aren't in government, it is unlikely anyone else will encourage or welcome a development because the political cost will be too high regardless of the impact on the Government coffers (these are the people who won't take Apple's taxes and are in court trying to find a way not to take them - that would be way more acceptable than allowing oil and gas production off the coast). Good luck to all longs, you're going to need it. I'm outta here.

In fairness I would say ToR got a few assurances the last time too.....

What happens if there is a further delay?

Hilarious. Couldn't even get 200k together https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/PVR/14551192.html

What a balls

Notwithstanding the fact that there is some bounce in oil, there is still a massive oversupply driven by a collapse in demand - I reckon a lot of shale will disappear though they've proven resilient in the past, they require a lot of capital and i doubt it will be forthcoming. I also reckon demand will be permanently lower. Macron in France has agreed to bailout AirFrance but only on condition they end internal flights, he has agreed to bailout the French Auto sector in return for an accelerated move into electric and so on. The trend is accelerating to renewables and away from oil and gas. Again, I suspect these will be medium term effects. In the short term I expect there will be a lot of caution with the recession coming so I think Linn will have his work cut out. The other thing is, if the Greens get in, there is no way they will let Broe go ahead - I understand it would be better for the environment etc. but that is not how politics works. They'll just refuse so the big thing I'm watching is the likelihood of the Greens getting into Government (which I judge quite high). I lost a lot on Broe, worst investment decision ever. The question is, would I invest today albeit with better management - I'd say 'no'.

And that's all before that guy from an Taisce spends €1000 and appeals the site survey.......

I don't think it will ever be produced.

Manyana, I always assumed you are Irish but now I see you are not. Where are you from? England, Wales, Scotland?

Looks very bad for PVR. Orderly shut down is most likely outcome. Even if BROE the greatest thing ever, it will never be developed. What a balls.

When will the EGM be and what will be the subject? I guess whatever the plan is will be presented and presumably we'll be asked to approve whatever fund raise is issued (I assume hundreds of millions of 4p shares will be issued if anyone is prepared to buy them...) as well as Linn's options etc..

It would be interesting to know who introduced APEC and did they get paid for the intro?

Anovas, normally all options would vest immediately in the event of a sale. Let's say he sold it for 24p a share, then he'd recieve 20p×15m=£3m which would make it a good pay day for everyone...

I saw the news today. It's about 2 years too late for PVR - he really is a shameless focker. By the way, it's clear to me that the only reason he has left is that he can't raise the money - if he thought they'd still be paying his salary in March he'd still be there. PVR is finished - I'm sure the large shareholders will try to offload it to recover something but it looks unlikely..... ToR will go down as one of the worst CEOs ever based on any metrics you care to use (tangible metrics such as shareholder returns that it)....