Member Info for Mamms

Against that statement, do you think he'll approve BROE for testing? Would he want to see it proved up, then financed and brought online? I don't think so.

I agree it's important to remember what happened. PVR drilled BROE with a really old and ill-maintained rig. While it drilled to the required depth (and hit oil again) - the rig then broke down before a lateral flow test could be done. A lateral flow test was needed to demonstrate whether there was compartmentalization or not. If there was significant compartmentalization then the field might never be commercially viable and compartmentalization was a major feature in the seven heads field that sits above BROE. PVR ****ed away millions taking a case they could not win against the firm that supplied the ****ty-rig. The upshot of the failure to do a lateral flow test is that the concern regarding compartmentalization never went away and basically, no-one would fund BROE's development. There has been a huge amount of BS about how technology improvements now allow mapping of the field and can allay fears over compartmentalization but that's not true. PVR also know that the field has big risks that need to be addressed - hence the need to do more appraisal drilling. And yes - they had the money to do this before and chose not to. They clearly weighted up the risk/reward and went for other projects. BROE has significant risks and is not the certainty presented here.

PVR want a permit so they can conduct an appraisal programme. The purpose of the appraisal programme is to demonstrate that the field is viable. I always thought this was done years ago but apparently not. The cost of the appraisal programme is €65m which they don't have but they think they could raise the funds with the permit. Goodman has invested about £4m in the company to date. He'd have to invest double that and hope all other shareholders take a punt with him to meet that €65m.
If the appraisal programme goes well, then PVR would farm out BROE to an oil development company and have the field developed to start production. Earliest estimate of starting production is late 2026 (assuming nothing is challenged in the courts and no faults show up in the field). The field has always been presented as mostly oil but some gas (they don't really know but it could be a lot of gas, the appraisal programme should determine this I guess). Let me know if there is a mistake in this summary.
In my opinion, I see everyone talking themselves into a frenzy about why Ryan must do this and must do that. I'd say it's not obvious. For a start he's a complete clown but putting that to one side, PVR does not have much credibility - look at the last three farm outs, everyone waiting for a monday morning RNS -at one point it was just a few hundred thousands. At another point in time, they had money which they spent on everything except BROE, why? Even if everything goes gangbusters there will be no production for 4 to 5 years. Will there still be a problem then? Maybe, maybe it will be worse or maybe there will be no problem and oil at $30 a barrel. I'd say Ryan will mull this for a year or two yet.....

It is interesting that Goodman has come in as a major player. The issues haven't really changed for BROE though - they are looking for a license and €65m to prove it up. The problem is that it would take years to get BROE into proper production and the current problems will have passed within 12/18 months. The UK have said that Ireland will be treated as part of the UK with respect to continuity of gas supplies (even if they block the interconnectors to the continent) so the immediate threat is not so severe.
In practice therefore, I doubt all the hysterics will change much. Remember as well, if the Department issue a license, the first thing that will happen is a trip to court as the challenges come in....
Who knows, don't PVR still own the old Kinsale field, could that be used for storage? That might be the play.....

The problem here is that while the Macro picture (the Green Deal v's an Energy Crisis and high prices for gas/oil) might tilt back towards PVR and BROE getting developed, the Micro picture of PVR (how it is run, it's assets and ability to raise funds, its track record) all mitigate against it. Even if they could raise the money to prove it up, they'd be trying to start a new industry off the coast of a relatively hostile administration.

From the PVR RNS: "One of the principal preliminary conclusions from the technical review is that the key uncertainties impeding the future development of Barryroe could be substantially reduced by further appraisal drilling."

They raised +/- £2.5m in 2021 through the exercise of warrants and we know from the annual accounts that "At 31 December 2020, total cash and cash equivalents were €2.110 million" so let's say they had £4.5m, running costs and that seabed appraisal etc. will have put a serious hole in that. They need funding to even drill an appraisal well. They probably need money just to keep the lights on - that sentence in the RNS is a killer - if they don't get a permit from the minister, or even if there is even a delay - it's game over " In the absence thereof, and indeed without receipt on a timely basis, the Board may not be able to achieve its stated objectives, with fundamental and serious consequences for PVR's future viability."

I saw the email, looked through it see that (a) there is no financing (b) there is no licence (I guess that's what they refer to in the 'lease undertaking' and (c) BROE is a long way from being actually proven up as an asset.
I then saw the article in the IT which should give everyone serious cause for concerns:
It said the granting of the lease undertaking for the Barryroe field, which is subject to ministerial consent, is “fundamental” to the execution of the board’s strategy.
“In the absence thereof, and indeed without receipt on a timely basis, the board may not be able to achieve its stated objectives, with fundamental and serious consequences for future viability,” it said.

So it looks like the last 10 years were all more of less bu11**** - the asset is not proven, hence no one will invest. So there needs to be further appraisal but they don't have the money for that. But, there is currently no licence so no one is going to fund a drill.

So, a little foot dragging from the Dept. or even a judicial review of any decision means PVR are toast according to the statement from the board. That's the most likely outcome now.

It is a terrible indictment of the stock exchange/company laws. There has been a real misleading of shareholders for more than 10 years. If there was a scrap of competence in the Office of the Director of Corporate Enforcement in Ireland, they ought to be kicking in the door of PVR and taking action against current and former directors....... it's a cluster****.

I have never posted under any other moniker. I got out of PVR about two years ago. I lost a lot of money on it and honestly, the lessons learnt were not worth it. Most of those lessons were about how we delude ourselves, about confirmation biases and so on. I pop back occasionally to see what's happening or today when got an email from shareholder services telling me Linn quit - which is how it was presented in the press.
I hope for your sake that something extraordinary happens (Goodman comes in, throws €250m at it and gets it over the line) but honestly - I don't believe that's going to happen (no matter how it is expressed). What bothers me is the way shareholders have been, and continue to be, misled. If they were honest, shareholders would have lost a lot less money. BTW I thought Linn was brought in to wind up the company. At some point they will have to pull the plug, will they go again (new share issuance) or pull the plug this time?

The dreamers are thinking this is good news, it's not. If it was planned in any sense, there would have been a replacement announced at the same time.

I really think it shows how poor governance is in Ireland and on the AIM. I would say that Linn recognises that they can't raise funds (now or in the future) and that they are bust. Rather than stringing it along, he's getting out now while the lights are still on - someone else can sit in the hot seat when it actually goes bust. This has been true for four or five years now.

Such a waste of time and resources on this board, with this share....

There are was a moment in time when, if BROE was what is claimed, when it could have been developed. I think that moment has passed. The IEA published a report today that says "that investment in new fossil fuel supply projects must stop immediately". I think it would be hard for Ireland Inc. to support a new project (even if not strictly banned under the current legislation, slow walking every step would be deemed par for the course).

The annoying thing is, PVR had the money in 2016 and chose to drill something else. That really suggests to me that BROE is, and always was, not really proven. If it was, PVR could have developed BROE and then drilled Druid/Drombeg. What they did made no sense otherwise.
https://www.ft.com/content/2bf04fff-5b2f-4d96-a4ea-ff55e029f18e
and the original
https://www.iea.org/news/pathway-to-critical-and-formidable-goal-of-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-is-narrow-but-brings-huge-benefits-according-to-iea-special-report

Were there zero shares traded today or am I missing something?

So 43m shares at 3p were left on the table.

Not good.

That's okay. PVR does 'far fetched', you wouldn't believe some of the things shareholders have seen. ToR issued a press release saying there was no problem and no fund raise envisioned and literally less than a week later he issued a notice that they had raised funds. They farmed out to a Chinese firm and signed over half their holding, never got a cent but extended the period for the delviery of the cash 5 times - then they got another party to sign up, backed by the Norwegian government but it turned out that they weren't really backing it BUT the good news is, that was really good news - it looked like another failure but it was really good news because the magic-finance trick works, it's just SpotOn couldn't manage the trick by Alan Linn has been watching them and reckons he has mastered the magic-finance trick. We also know it is really good news because an online news site says some firm owned by Larry Goodman bought £300k of shares and when mainstream press asked for a comment he said ..... oh wait I must have missed that. Anyway, whether Larry bought shares or not is immaterial - even if BROE is what it is claimed to be, given the environmental and political situation (never mind the need for magic) the prospects of anyone developing this are so low as to make its development seem far fetched....

It may be that Larry Goodman hasn't made an investment (or even if he has that it's not a commitment to anything). His rumoured investment is all that sparked a mini-revival/stopped a collapse. If SpotOn exercise the option and try then to offload them they'll find out pretty quick what the market for PVR shares really looks like... good luck with that.
If you are SpotOn you'd have to believe that someone else will raise the capital (which you couldn't), you'd have to believe that the permitting, authorisations and everything else would go through without major delays. I just think it's unlikely - remember the Greens have closed peat power plants and stopped BnM from producing peat briquettes BUT they are being imported now from Germany. It's beyond belief. Yet, Eamonn Ryan is the guy you are hoping is going to authorise BROE? He might have legal obligations but he knows that all he has to do it delay.

The notion that this latest manœuvre is actually 'good news' is a spin worthy of ToR but I'd see a big "Caveat Emptor" sign over the door of this....

No one can say this was unexpected. This was another 'Hail Mary' funding scheme, to be closely followed by another. In my experience, you find out pretty quickly the difference between positive support, strong backing and BS when people actually write meaningful cheques. No one has written a meaningful cheque here. From those of you taking comfort from Pageant's 'offer' I suspect Mr. Furling could be in a sunk cost fallacy trap. The environment is too negative, a rebel alliance will never deliver this - only a major weighing in and taking it on is a path to development (and I assume they've all said 'no' already. You'd have to ask whether someone ought to intervene (financial regulator or someone) to stop the charade.
Still, I'm sure the greens are delighted, no need to take hard decisions, just watch it die by itself.

No deal will mean no PVR. I don't think they would continue.

ps - I don't think that's the relevant assessment. What will it be worth with no deal? I'm very negative on its prospects...

They had to get an extension to produce €200k last May. I'd say the chances of them producing €166m are vanishingly slim.....

I don't disagree PS. I'm just making the point that Government will be under more pressure to transition away from fossils if they don't have their own. It's a good argument for never developing BROE or anything else off the Irish coast.