Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Trading stops on 21 March 2023(at which point, the register of shareholders in the event of a compensation payout will be set). Some have said there will be a secondary trading window somewhere but that seems unlikely - you'd have to believe BOE will somehow reactivate and/or LOGP is readmitted to the aim. Looks unlikely. I think anyone who stays in now will be in for the long haul. It's a long term punt that is taken out of your hands insofar as you can't decide in 6 months, 'Oh, I'd like to cash in my LOGP shares now'. Might be a stampede for the door next week or who knows, maybe some gamey lad or lady will hoover up all that's going before the watershed.....
I guess delisting happens on the 15th March? (or suspension and delisting on 15 September). Anyway, the point is that for most punters, that don't have access to secondary markets, they will need to decide to stay in or quit in the next days. I'd expect to see even more volatility but trending down. Personally, I am taking a punt on a successful ECT case and outcome and so will just squirrel away the shares and see what turns up (but am under no illusions, this is at least a 10 year punt). I guess many will just throw in the towel in the coming days....
Some parties on here seem to think that the LU is still under active consideration ('in the bag' has been said) - I don't think that is realistic. That ship has sailed and the Government will not reverse themselves. LOGP is about to leave the stock market - it is taking a legal action for compensation which may result in a payout 10 years from now. I think anyone who thinks LOGP will still be actively trading in a few months is kidding themselves (at least).
I can't see SF changing tack on Barryroe either. It'll take a court to overturn it (vanishingly unlikely) or a major supply disruption this winter to cause a change.
I reckon there is a chance that the ECT thing might deliver a result (but not for a long time) - the time value of money means it's a tough bet to make. I'd expect SP weakness ahead of the delisting.
Hard to know what to make of that - my summary would be: we're progressing the ECT claim. You're energy policy is illogical. If you'd cop-on we'd be prepared to discuss a way out that is good for everyone but especially Ireland - but no one will discuss or engage with us in any way. Sounds a bit like a cry in the wilderness - no one to hear it.
Ryan is a moron but politically, he's dead if he even entertains the idea of issuing a license. Short of Russia/China cutting the interconnectors I don't see a change on the license.
I don't want to burst any bubbles but there will be no settlement with the Irish Government expect one forced on it after every possible legal avenue is pursued. I am betting on that outcome but I am shelving this thing for 10 years and hoping against hope that by the time there is a result, that shareholders have not been diluted to nothing... I suspect everything else are fantasies.
FFS. Why are expenses so high? They are issuing 200m new shares every 6 months (plus warrants etc), how long will that continue? We had 1bn shares in issues, then 1.2bn soon to be 1.4bn (has anyone any idea what the level of warrants that will be converted are if there was ever a settlement?). Seems to me that Boldy and co. need to either settle soon or else pass it over to a 'no foal no fee' legal firm that goes after compensation.
As it happens, I picked up a few last week. The point here is that, holders will have to take a decision (in or out) in the next few months, after which, there won't be an option any more and it becomes wait and see.
And yes, if it goes the Charter Treaty arbitration/appeals/etc. route, that will be at least 10 years.
It would be a hell of a result to overturn the permit and get it to development - I just can't see it being possible, even for LG.
It's disappointing that, in the short term, developing our own gas fields are not under consideration in this article. We are importing 70% of our gas from the UK, itself a net importer from Norway.
It will take another 20 years at least to make the transition. We will be using a lot of gas and a lot of oil between here and there - whatever the optics are....https://www.irishtimes.com/your-money/2023/11/09/irelands-dangerous-reliance-on-gas-has-big-implications-for-the-economy/
So as expected (by almost everyone), all shareholders are wiped out with BOE going to Larry. Whether he is able to do anything with the shell remains to be seen. Personally, I suspect he won't be able to change the outcomes, but who knows. He could buy LOGP, merge the two into the UK operation and submit a bumper damages claim - if he gave £10m for LOGP and call it quits? I'm sorry for the BOE longs, at least they are being put out of their misery... a sad story all round.
Yeah, it's 'crazy' that two major oil mergers in the past month might signal a reappraisal of O&G, and guess who used to be a senior manager at Hess... https://www.ft.com/content/2f5bc085-6aac-431d-b0e1-812e809553ef
It takes very little to move the sp. I'd say it's just a reaction to the events of recent days, Chevron buying Hess, ESGs falling out of favour.... I wouldn't read anything into it. I expect a rollercoaster until March, then delisting, then.....?????
It's still a cash shell and will remain a cash shell until it is delisted in March - it's a straightforward bet on the outcome of litigation against the Irish State. The State will resist and delay and refuse to participate etc. for as long as possible, for a State, waiting 10 years, 30 years, 50 years is all nothing. If there is a result it will take at least 10 years to play out in my opinion. As with all these things, it can go either way and over time, it may be that the situation deteriorates (for instance there is a global renunciation of previous charters, particularly if 'climate events' accelerate). I expect that by the time 1 March 2024 comes around and then there are only a few weeks of trading left, the price will fall with many gyrations between here and there, all based on SFA. If you are prepared to lock up your money for a very long time and have no better uses for cash, it might be a good bet (there are a lot of 'ifs' there). I might wait a bit and think again on whether to buy....
Just to set expectations - the future business plans will make no reference to the Barryroe oil and gas field or any future business plans that involve LOGP or O&G sector generally. The receiver (the bankruptcy administrator) must show a credible business plan. We already know that business plan will be based on renewables. They cannot act simply to try to take a legal action. Once the court accepts the restructured business (with all existing shareholders wiped out despite what manyana seems to think) then it can also pursue (a) legal action and (b) any other course of action it chooses - since it will be a privately held company, that will be the last you hear about that unless LOGP are involved (but in future, LOGP will find out stuff after the event)
My view is that Ryan and co. have gone for the longest possible option- this would be the strategy if the instruction was 'kick the can as far down the road as you can'. They had 3 months and did not engage until the last day and only then to say 'let's talk about talks'. So does LOGP start formal proceedings or engage? They have to engage now so that will delay the start of formal proceedings for another 6 to 12 months. They are not actually looking to settle, just to delay.
The shell company and the need to reverse into something was flagged sometime back, there is no master strategy and LOGP don't have the headroom even to take advice. Since you can't just sit in the stock exchange doing nothing (in the same way that BROE can't exist just to pursue litigation) they have to leave unless they find a way to do something else. I'd say the price will fall precipitously as we approach 18 March 2024 (when LOGP will cease to trade on the exchange).
I expect (a) the Government will not reverse its decision on the licence and (b) that LOGP will not do a reverse takeover or raise the £6m necessary to stay listed once it becomes designated a 'cash shell' on 14 September. The upshot is that LOGP will be delisted on 19 September if I understand the RNS LOGP issued in July. I'm not sure what the implication will be - last chance to cash out for 8-10 years for regular punters so maybe a large drop or people gather shares to take a position in the event of a positive claim. I'd expect some big moves over the last 16 trading days for LOGP.
PS to the previous poster - I believe the probability of a successful claim to be 50% (actually less but whatever). That has nothing to do with the payout. If LOGP wins its claim, I reckon 10-20 times the current share prices (I think 1-2p after expenses so £20-40m payout) - that will take about 10 years to play out. Of course, if they lose the claim then zero after 10 years..
The good news is that this BS will all finish in 16 days.
Rockhopper have received no compensation to date. It is still under appeal with years left to run.
I would expect any claim by LOGP to take a minimum ten years to complete and maybe longer. If there are a series of negative or positive results, this may alter the dynamic with a settlement in year 5 to 8 being on offer.
The probability of a positive result is at best 50% - anyone investing here would have at least as good a chance down in the bookies putting their money on a 10-1 or 20-1 shot - at least it would be over in an instant.