Member Info for Malik-

This follows his exercise of expiring options yesterday.
Typical transaction just before Christmas: Look back at historical press releases at this time of year.

What an awful discount.
That said….
I am going to load up tomorrow.
It’s a BARGAIN

Pasting a good comment from one of our friends on Hotcopper:

“ VUL offtake with VW is for c7ktpa. So this is equivalent to something like 30% of the lithium need for ONLY 1 of their gigafactories on Europe. Remember they are planning 6 gigafactories in Europe.?I actually read this as a POSITIVE for EMH; since it shows there is PLENTY of scope for more offtake agreements by VW - and shows too that 1) VW os is finally feeling a sense of urgency and getting active in securing their lithium requirements and 2) Plenty scope for more, 3) they have yet to take a direct stake in lithium mining - something which their management recently reiterated is a probability.?At $30k hydroxide… EMH trades at a ridiculous 12% NPV.?BUY.
“

Stock on sale again!
Currently discounting a ridiculous £6m valuation (c20% of mcap) for the group wide hydrogen opportunity (!)
How do I get there? Deduct £7m of cash on balance sheet, deduct £6m legacy biz valuation and say £1m for what’s being discounted for critical minerals upside.
As I said yesterday, the sole port contract alone on super cautious assumptions is worth at least £40m.
BUY

It’s a you call a total bear case

To show how undervalued the stock is here, consider this Black sky/bear-case valuation:
*Shoreham project: £2m EBITDA/year for Getech share. At say 20x multiple = £40m. (Note that’s equivalent to a super conservative 8x sales multiple; which compares to 20-30x sales for hydrogen stocks - FYI at 25x sales you are looking at £125m valuation for this project)…
*Legacy oil&gas: £1m EBITDA at 6x multiple = £6m
*Expected EBITDA from critical minerals offering: £1m at 10x multiple = £10m.
*Assuming zero value for SGN MoU and Eversholt to show how ridiculously undervalued this stock is…
* Add cash: £7m
*Deduct expected capex/debt for the projects.
Total equity value: £c50m = 75p

BUY

UK govt awarded funding for first of kind hydrogen storage project in Scotland (see link to article below). Similar type project as Getech working on with SGN….
This project per se in partnership between ScottishPower and ITM.

UK government's energy and climate change minister quoted saying “it had never been more important to "champion" projects like this, which embrace new hydrogen technology while creating highly-skilled jobs.”

Bullish for Getech prospects! Recall, Getech currently bidding for hydrogen site contract tenders.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-59365823

https://twitter.com/sgngas/status/1461630709286813699?s=21

FYI. This is precisely what Getech/H2Green MoU with SGN is about.
Part of a huge multi billion project, with a utility partner with very substantial financial resources.

Again nonesense decline and a buying opportunity. The rise since the announcement implicitly prices the port opportunity at a ridiculous 2x EBITDA multiple.
People don’t quite grasp the multiples hydrogen stocks are trading at….
Eg: AFC Energy - £5m of sales and has a market cap of £430m.

Solid interview by CEO.
Suggests a 8t hydrogen facility at the port would generate £2m/yr EBITDA. (This is of course before any expansion to ammonia which would take the economics at whole new level).
Just fyi - hydrogen stocks typically trade at 15-30x sales (so much higher multiples of EBITDA)… you get the idea of upside just from the deal announced this week… and that’s just 1 of their projects/mous in hydrogen…

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/6192687641216a596aef5107/getech-group-company-update/

*sorry if already posted - seems like LSE board having some technical issues.

Solid interview by CEO.
Suggests a 8t hydrogen facility at the port would generate £2m/yr EBITDA. (This is of course before any expansion to ammonia which would take the economics at whole new level).
Just fyi - hydrogen stocks typically trade at 15-30x sales (so much higher multiples of EBITDA)… you get the idea of upside just from the deal announced this week… and that’s just 1 of their projects/mous.

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/6192687641216a596aef5107/getech-group-company-update/

Stock remains a no-brainer here. Mcap up only c£5m (!) from time pre publication of 2020 annual results back in summer.
Since then, we have had yesterday game changing announcement which itself is worth numerous times the mcap accretion I just refer to; a board upgrade; the launch of the critical minerals product offering to widen the legacy offering to things like geothermal and lithium in addition to oil&gas; and finally a return to growth of legacy oil&gas activities.
BUY

Great buying opportunity on weakness today.
Stock effectively at levels pre the publication of the 2020 annual results back in June. Since then, the company has been delivering plenty. We ve seen continued board upgrade; H2Green proving they are set to become a serious contender in the space being highly vocal into and at Cop26; confirmation of return to growth of legacy oil&gas; and the start of the new product offering of critical minerals, in addition to oil&gas.
Cash making up a big 40% of mcap.
This stock is significantly undervalued. BUY

Stock on sale again; and offering great buying opportunity.

1) Significant undervaluation with cash making up close to 40% of mcap.
2) hydrogen opportunity could take this to the hundred million valuation - juste look and hydrogen stocks’ sales multiples... 3) the company’s new critical mineral product offering which is just launching - and particularly geothermal&lithium could easily double the legacy business’ revenue base, in my view. 4) the oil&gas legacy business is back to growth and benefitting from resumed capex spend in the industry thanks to high oil p.
BUY

Well said.
Directors buy.

.

Bought £20k here.
Stock completely oversold with RSI weakest since 2018.
Trading on bombed out valuations.
The CHEAPEST hydrogen play.
Plupower currently has $14bn mcap. They expect sales of c$450m this year => Trades on 31x sales.
AFC valuation range:
*LOW case: say very conservatively sales of £30m in 3 y time. That’s 0.15% market share of diesel generator market and NOTHING else.
31*30m= cUSD1bn valuation in 3y. Discount that back to 2021 at 8%: USD800m => £600m (we re close to HALF low case valuation).
*BLUE SKY: say £300m in 3y time. That’s 1.5% market share of diesel generator market and nothing else/more.
USD 10bn valuation in 3y. Discount that back to 2021 at 8%: USD 8bn => £6bn.

Say 90% chance of a) and 10% chance of b).
Weighted average valuation/price target: £1.15bn
2.6x UPSIDE.

Solid set of results today. Revenues £2.4m up from £1.5m in H2 last year. EBITDA flat vs -0.6m at H2 2020.
Clearly the business has seen an inflection point, as I had been arguing.
£7m cash in hand.
Recall shares had dropped from c25p after the publication of 2020 full year results earlier this year. No reason why we shouldn’t be already back at 25, before their next leg up.
Cheap!

Your numbers are of course rubbish.
35% of the BCN stake is held by institutionals + industrials .
Those are smarter won’t sell; and in fact will likely buy from the little flippers who have no clue about how to value a company.

Below my thoughts on the Zinnwald investment case.

-Stock trades at mere 16% NPV (assuming $16k hydroxide). This is CHEAP in itself - how about when you start pricing in Lithium at $20k?
16% is c HALF what Vulcan trades on - a company for which geothermal technology isn’t proven as yet and for which there is a mammoth >$2bn initial capex program. Also note Zinnwald is an advanced DFS stage vs Vulcan at PFS.
-16% valuation is far from pricing in ANY M&A optionality. For comparison purpose, M&A transaction have been carried out at 4x that multiple.
-This multiple DOESN’T event account for a v substantial 50% increase in group wide Li resource from recent granting of nearby exploration license - effectively valuing it at ZERO. Of course, ZNWD’s zinc and gold assets are also valued at zero in shares and in valuation described above.
-Look at Uranium sector - quality assets there trade at 80% NPV and that’s on a uranium price 50% higher than spot. You get the idea of how low such multiple is…
-Shareholding structure about to improve considerably with high profile investors entering and DILUTION-FREE. Ganfeng will have 10%, while prominent funds in BCN will too take be joining as well as Daiwa.
-Ganfeng moving to 10% is likely politically motivated. EU unlikely to want a Chinese company controlling a lithium resource in heart of Europe.
This opens to possibility of transaction with Geomet (51% owned by Cez/49% by EMH) and even another party (eg VW?).
Recall Cez has previously talked of synergies between the projects, and in my view there are plenty. German President just visited Czech R, and discussed green revolution and transport infrastructure. Could they have discussed consolidating the assets?
-Key catalysts: 1) Opening up to new shareholders this year from BCN transaction => retail led discount to disappear. 2) Gigafactory consortium to be formed this year with Cez in Czech R, opening way to offtake for Geomet/EMH, ZNWD’s next door neighbour. 3) Lithium p expected to soar later this year on market tightness - big leverage to this. 4) Any JV agreement/sale of zinc and gold assets currently valued at zero in shares.

Conclusion: ZNWD is the cheapest Li play on Europe given its advanced stage and M&A prospectivity. What’s held its valuation back is that it’s been under the radar and retail held. This is about to change with the arrival of big funds and industrials in the shareholding register. It will also benefit from catalysts at Geomet, being its next door neighbour.
It offers great leverage on rising Li prices. BUY