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Quincet8 says " with recovery rates of 45%", and then proceeds to value UKOG at this unrealistic rate.
If only they could be so high when worldwide recovery rates are 20% to 40%.
What makes him think that a little minnow like UKOG can achieve such stupendously high rates?.
Further he completely ignores the elephant in the room, SCC.
Looks like another ramper has joined the party.
I wonder what his previous monicas have been, as, with someone who profess to be so knowledgeable where has he been the last 4 or 5 years?.
I think that the rigs arrival for the next phase of the test will make maybe a small difference to the SP, as, even a blind eskimo living in the canadian wastes knows from the tests so far completed that there is a load of oil under Gatwick Airport.
What will make a vast difference to the share price is SCC coming up with a judgement on the planning application.
Should they decline the application, then, we will be looking at half or even a quarter of todays price Should they give the go ahead then maybe 3 times todays price.
Cos, all this as they move at glacial pace.
10 months from the original date plans were entered, and the best they can do is make a tentative arrangement for a planning meeting on the 22/09/19 after many many previous postponements and even this date will likely be moved forward another couple of months.
So, in my opinion, I fear we will not have to much to cheer about just on the rigs arrival and still not much to cheer about if the test is positive. Only if planning permission is obtained will the SP of UKOG make any significant upward move.
I think that the rigs arrival for the next phase of the test will make maybe a small difference to the SP, as, even a blind eskimo living in the canadian wastes knows from the tests so far completed that there is a load of oil under Gatwick Airport.
What will make a vast difference to the share price is SCC coming up with a judgement on the planning application.
Should they decline the application, then, we will be looking at half or even a quarter of todays price Should they give the go ahead then maybe 3 times todays price.
Cos, all this as they move at glacial pace.
10 months from the original date plans were entered, and the best they can do is make a tentative arrangement for a planning meeting on the 22/09/19 after many many previous postponements and even this date will likely be moved forward another couple of months.
So, in my opinion, I fear we will not have to much to cheer about just on the rigs arrival and still not much to cheer about if the test is positive. Only if planning permission is obtained will the SP of UKOG make any significant upward move.
mirasol "Could the reason for the delay be that they have purchased a rig?"
Maybe, just maybe, the rigs late arrival is so that the present EWT wants to extract the maximum amount of oil allowed for this particular test before moving on to the next phase, thus, maximising the income from the this particular test, given SCCs penchant for dilly dallying.
Only a thought on my part.
I have posted many times in the past about a need for caution.
Virtually every post was greeted with cries of derision, not least of all by DHC whose missives always said how wonderful it was all going to be backed up with cut and pastes taken from various RNS's usually taken out of context or overblown not least of all by SS.
Going on past performance the late arrival of a rig is pretty much par for the course with SS and ukog and should not surprise anyone.
I accept that part of SS's job is to get UKOG out there on a positive note and not to undervalue the company but DHC and cohorts, what's their agenda??????. Probably an attempt to try to raise the SP.
Several posters have suggested that I am some sort of troll and am not invested, well, I suppose you could say that I am not invested as I have not one red cent tied up in this having successfully traded my self down to shares owned owing me nothing and a small profit on top. Can the long and strong brigade whose shares have resided in the bedside cabinet say the same. Obviously not.
DHC, 255 "tmo,s" in 30 days, and few if any are less than 100 words.
The Man [?] has nothing better to do than post his opinions on LSE bulletin boards.
Give it a rest matey you are so annoying to ordinary readers of these boards, but then maybe thats your aim?
is that UKOG has a test well that will produce around 212 BOPD, and own 50% of that. The rest is only guess work.
Based on that assumption the share price at around 1.1p, giving an M Cap of circa £66m, is a tad over valued.
People can come up with all the calculations they like, but at this early stage that is the long and short of it. [Short, get the pun?]
This of course does not add in the unknown quantity, bit like the oil underground, of SCC and their reliance on their voters to whom they are beholden.
grevan,
Whether you use the original planning application date of 20/12/18 or use the end date for public consultation of 18/02/19 the proposed meeting, which will most probably be subject to cancellation, both fall out side of the statutory time scale of 13 weeks by the 18/06[?] by quite a wide margin.
Granting a production licence for HH, even before the latest green demonstrations, was never going to be a vote winner with the local population, not even with the lure of " filthy luca" and as I said before SCC are beholden to those that pay the council tax and even more beholden to those that voted them in and are bound to look at it in the light favouring the voters/tax payers..
As such it does not inspire confidence that SCC should see it the way of UKOG or, indeed, central government.
They will drag this out for the longest possible time in order that, when going round the doorsteps at election time they can say that they did their damndest to thwart the extraction of crude oil, no matter that it should and probably would have little or no effect on the life style of those protesting its extraction in the first place.
SILAS242 16.06 " On first reading, I really didn't care that SCC have postponed the planning meeting - it is irrelevant to the drilling plans for 2019 and the delivery of the two planned horizontal wells. They can delay it a few more months and it won't matter a jot. However, on reflection, I do actually think that it has placed an additional unexpected weight on the already depressed SP and to be honest I am grateful of that as it has enhanced the buy in opportunity. So thanks SCC!!"
I think you are misguided re SCC time table.
SCC are more likely to postpone this again and again ad infinitum until the cows come home, not just for a few months but for many months until forced by higher government to make a decision, and SCCs decision is likely to be FO UKOG.
One must remember that the advantages/disadvantages are nothing to a politician, just so long as they garner a few more votes for re-election.
Science and their beliefs are nothing compared to the primal urge to be re-elected, and as I have said many times before the SP is going nowhere until SCC say it is, side tracks, new wells or even trips to the moon will make no difference
If pushed, my money would be on SCC still prevaricating this time next year.
Thank the lord my little cache of shares owe me nothing as I have traded them on several spikes over the last 18 months-2 years.
SCC mate as I have been trolling [according to the rampers] for ages.
They can probably prevaricate for years over the planning application, and until it goes past them nothing on earth will move the share price from its present measaley rate, only in a downwardly direction.
Gatto, I'm not saying it is not a good investment, but it is not the nailed on certainty that DHC and others on this board seem to think it is, judging by their missives on this board.
A note of caution is all I am suggesting, but it would seem anybody suggesting this is some kind of numpty and a de-ramper with a hidden agenda.
Fact is some of the ramping on this board suggests a hidden agenda on their part.
Wake up DHC smell the coffee.
In this case wake up check the share price.
What does it tell you??.
This is fraught with reasons for caution.
Surrey County council, UKOG's constant fundraising, diluting those already invested.
Those who say the Kimmeridge geological formation is prone to serious depletion.
Why are we taking out 220 barrels per day when much more is available, to conserve the well.
Does that sound like a million barrels are there for the taking ad infinitum.
The same well conservation could well apply to the horizontals and new wells halving DHCs figures.
All this gives a clue as to the doubt surrounding this enterprise, and the biggest clue of all, the share price.
In the last 2 years, after all the good news we have had, all the tankers leaving HH, all the wonderful acquisitions which the stock market values so highly, there have been only 9 weeks out of 104 when the closing share price of UKOG has been LOWER than it is today.
I wonder what on earth might be the cause of this terrible blight for the long term holders.
Answers in no more than 2 words and should [probably] begin with F and R.