The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Very decent RNS yesterday, looking forward to tomorrow's presentation and the coming months as the story unfolds.
Also news from Cipia:
Tel Aviv, November 23, 2021 - Cipia, CPIA, an AI computer vision in-cabin automotive solutions provider, today announced that it has raised $22M as part of the company’s initial public offering (IPO).? Cipia is expected to start trading on the Tel Aviv Stock (TASE) under the symbol CPIA (????).
Cipia has a strategic partnership with Mobileye to integrate the Driver Sense software on Mobileye’s chip. The company estimates that the integrated ADAS and Driver Sense DMS solution provides the market with a more cost-effective offering compared with alternatives in the market, and can assist the company in reaching substantial market share.
Seems it's all kicking off!
Hello S2020, hope all is well with you too.
A Mobileye comparison is also a very fair comparison.
The usual caveats when using the terminal FCF method apply obviously. I.e. everything is an estimate and timing wasn’t stipulated.
Even discounting £4.15bn back 5 years (implying $500m USD PA revenue from 2026) at 9% suggests an estimated 67p current value.
We need to start announcing some significant wins!
GLA
Aljess, £1 per share is within the realms of possibility based on Auto only.
Let me explain.
Paul has mentioned that the DMS market will be worth $1bn USD PA.
Thanks to Investopedia a terminal value for SEE can be calculated using the following formula:
(FCF * (1 + g)) / (d - g)
Where:
FCF = Free cash flow PA
g = Terminal growth rate
d = discount rate
If SEE take 50% Market share (achievable and potentially conservative) with 80% Margin.
FCF =($1bn USD x 50% x 80%) = $400m USD/ 1.4 (FX rate) = £285m
Cenkos have terminal growth at 2%.
Currently Cenkos has the discount rate @ 12%, but its not unreasonable to see this drop below 10% once a few big contracts drop. So lets say 9%.
£285m x 1.02 = £290.7
£290.7/(0.09-0.02)= £4.15bn terminal value for Auto
We currently have 3.9bn shares in issue. The Management will no doubt issue a load of shares to themselves before any takeover, so will probably be slightly over 4bn. Even so, £1 isn't a huge stretch.
As always just imho
We use a Servcorp 'Rent a space' office for our registered address:
https://www.houjin.info/detail/9010001194559/
I also wonder if we have another location in Tokyo, as I dont think the Senior Director is located there.
But I think we spend most of our time at customer sites.
We now have a Senior Director in Japan who was the Automotive Project Manager of Nexty and a Field Applications Engineer/Manager from Xilinx, both started in March 2020. Along with our first Japanese head count who was a Senior Manager in Sony.
If it is, it’s a seriously delayed response!
Up 60%+ and only 4 messages on the bb, completely under the radar of most PI’s
18p to buy atm, very respectable rise
So if Auto revenues are locked in to double every year from now until 2025, that wld suggest a total of A$558m of business won, yet the company has only ever confirmed A$200m.
So does that mean we have won $300m+ of business that they have not yet disclosed?? Maybe one joint Euro contract for $100m+ and a $200m extension on one of our US OEMs?
I look forward to those RNS’s.
One of the main reasons for the delay, in at least one new OEM, has been due to the OEM repeatedly reopening the RFQ to add more models.
This potentially meant Tier 1’s needed to adjust and resubmit their tenders each time.
As for the other new one... it wld be pretty embarrassing for one of our competitors to lose, but will the OEM wait for them to catch up? Probably not, how much can competitors improve their offering in a few months? More likely coming down to politics.
Thanks Schlemiel.
Wasn’t trying to make anyone feel guilty, just didn’t want us to get over enthusiastic. Sure posting senior manager professional details no probs, they will influence the business etc, but software engineers/Team leads? Let’s leave those guys alone
Just imho
It looks like about 5% of SEE workforce have worked at Continental (in various locations) at some point.
There are at least 12 former Continental employees @ SEE. 7 that directly moved to SEE with 5 others indirectly. Thales 2 direct & 1 indirect & Xilinx 4 direct.
I think its ok to have a table with a total number of employees from another company, but not appropriate to start publicly posting employee names on a BB
Just imho as usual