Member Info for magictrades

Hi everyone

This has been a terrific week and a great day so far for the SP pushing above the 9's. We've had the NC presentation and QnA session following on from Callum's GGP presentation last week. Hannum and Partners have released their analysis and imo provide the best pre-maiden resource estimate valuation we have from a reputable source at 12.9p and as discussed is a rather conservative standpoint.

I've decided I will be doing another presentation to assimilate that information alongside some more details and understanding I have gained on the mineralization we have at Havieron. A quick warning though. This next presentation is going to be more in depth and "heavy going" than the last one. I will of course do my utmost to make it as accessible as possible however its impossible to simplify some concepts without sacrificing the quality.

One point I wanted to make about just ore deposits in general is that in my experience each deposit is unique in its own way. Many deposits have major differences between each other. Equally, some deposits have lots of similarities in completely different parts of the world. Over time, Geologists have defined a set of deposit type classifications based on these similarities and differences. Once we characterize a deposit as a specific type (e.g Porphyry Copper), individual deposits of that class often have subtle differences that make them unique. Havieron is just the same. So when we compare Havieron with other prospects and mines such as Telfer, Winu or any other, its important to bear this in mind.

Thanks
Magic

Corradus - That must have took some time to pull together those figures and numbers. I appreciate the hard work put into those estimates and the care taken to use the most accurate assumptions you can. Prior to this the only real guide we have to a target SP was the Numis target and that is just a broker target which is just one estimate. Here we have multiple scenarios. As we get more information through about the depth etc, we can update this to reflect the new information. Bravo on your work here :)

I'm currently going through some past reports including the Sprott note. The Angry Geologist blog may or may not make a leapfrog model on the Havieron prospect and then there's the Newcrest presentation material recently. Once I have fully read all the material I'll likely do another presentation to assimilate it all together. I understand in the early days why they may have speculated Havieron to be IOCG considering Australia has a history of IOCG mineralization. However it doesn't satisfy many of the criteria. The evidence more points towards intrusion related Au-Cu mineralization like Telfer with local granites playing an important role. I haven't gotten to the part about the different geophysical signatures at Telfer vs Havieron. I wondered if that might be because of an upgrade in technology being able to penetrate deeper cover and because Havieron's morphology is different to Telfer?

I'll be honest I'm not much of a resource geologist or accountant so doing these calculations I always think I've missed something. As far as I'm aware and maybe someone out there can correct me if i'm wrong, but I believe tonnage is in tonnes not tons unless its a USA or Canadian company. So 2MT = 2 million tonnes. I googled oz to tonnes and it said 34.23 which is the same on the website I used for the method. The AISC value was on a slide in Newcrest's presentation.

You make a good point about the mining/milling costs Corradus. AISC may go down with higher grade like you explain. Good post :)

Yeah $540m turnover a year if I have done the calculation correctly XD. Obviously you have a cut-off grade and a breakeven cost. Not entirely sure how to get a value for that but Telfer is at $1300 AISC. SB mentioned that Hav would be less due to infrastructure already in place among other things. Bottom line is we won't know exactly until the PFS comes out but early calculations look nice haha

Also a quick note to say that 2MT value and thus the calculation is a per annum figure (See Paddy response to Launder in another thread) - forgot to include that :). Also i'm not a resource geologist so this is my calculation to the best of my knowledge haha

So pretty much upon a 2nd watch through here is what the deal is. The mineralization at Havieron is as SB states "10x" the grade at Telfer. This is hosted in the "parabola on its side" as he puts it which translates to the sulfide zone on our diagram. He mentions mining that with a high grade stoping method. The breccia is lower grade but most likely larger in tonnage and surrounds the sulfide zone. The breccia may be looked at being mined via their bulk underground methods.

Like Paddy says below, SB quotes an arbitrary value of 2MT high grade ore from the stoping operation. To calculate the Moz value we need an average grade in g/t of Au for the system. I'm going to use Had005 results and take the average between the intercepts. This is approximately 5.45G/t Au. Taking all that together we get the following: (see this website for further detail https://undervaluedequity.com/mineral-deposit-value-how-to-calculate-the-potential-value-of-a-mining-project/)

2Mt X 5.45g/t divided by 34.2857 (conversion of g/t to Oz) = 317Koz Au within the sulfide zone. This equates to $540m at a $1700 Au price today and on estimates from HAD005.

Note this calculation does not include copper and does not include the breccia and as such is only reflective of the Au contained in the sulfide zone. This calculation also assume an average gold grade which may be underestimating the grade hosted within the higher grade zones. I've made this calculation using the method on that website above. Higher grade in the breccia nearest to the sulfide zone makes sense with lower grades towards the centre. The overprinting of the breccia mineralization that Paddy eludes to could be a result of remobilization of sulfide zone mineralization into the breccia maybe during the brecciation process but that's only a theory.

ATB - Magic

Other key points were:
1. Reiterated the farm-in agreement earning up to 75% when pressed on possible takeover of GGP. Stated "can't speculate on the future" and mentioned ROI is a big factor
2. 9 drill holes on site and drilling as fast as they can to bring the pre-feasibility study as early as they can

Ooh I love a good leapfrog model. Great to see somebody out there doing this

The parabola on its side to me represents the arcuate sulfide zone that we see in our diagrams. That's the highest grade area and then lower grades within the breccia but as already stated that's still open at depth at the moment. Will re-watch later for any other points I may have missed. Overall very happy with what I heard

ATB - Magic

Sorry started a new thread above but will place here instead. Sentiment is good from what I've heard and Sandeep like you say was talking about a mine at Havieron in the present tense which is always a good sign. My question about the mineralization at Telfer was answered in terms of grade which he mentioned is much higher than at Telfer. My player started buffering a bit after that but later on in response to another question he was quoted as saying "If I could start the decline tomorrow I would" which I think highlights Sandeep and Newcrest's position on the Havieron project in that it is viewed very highly by the company :)

What did we all think those that were listening? I had my question answered around the mineralization in terms of grade and that they have the technology to be able to mine that material (high grade stoping). I saw that there were other questions around the scalability of Havieron. My view is that Sandeep is pretty excited about Havieron, they've now started the pre-feasibility study and the key quote I took from what he said was "If I could start the decline tomorrow I would" which tells me that Newcrest are very happy with what they have seen and continue to see from the project. I'm going to listen back once it is done as my player was buffering a bit but overall I felt that the sentiment was good.

The JORC code is clear in parts and not clear in others haha. I would be happy with a MRE in that range. These things aren't precise calculations and are done by a "competent individual" so it depends what assumptions they use etc. Just to clarify, are we talking about the MRE being equivalent to the pre-feasibility study?

Yeah its a good slide Espadrilles. If you read the small print on the mine life estimate it gives some more info on how they calculate it. It's worth keeping that booklet in a folder somewhere for future reference

Also just to clarify, download the May 2020 briefing book from underneath the presentation on their website. That's got the havieron stuff in it (pages 37-38), the main presentation for BAML 2020 listed doesn't have Havieron in it and is more of a summary of Newcrest as a company and some KPI indicators for this year. One thing the book has done is provide a mine life estimate for the reserves at Telfer at ~3 years (page 36). That is now essentially our lower limit on mine life for Telfer :)

Looking forward to watching this over lunch now. Good find there Paddy. Obviously it's not all going to be about Havieron, they're going to be talking about all their other projects too especially their recent acquisition of Fruta del Norte. However for the parts about Havieron it will be interesting and to see what they are doing with their other projects. Always good to learn more about the farm in partner imo

I agree. I'd take my mine life estimate with a pinch of salt as I done that with resources instead of reserves from the data I could find. I'm going to do one with reserves instead as I think that's a more accurate way of doing things. Consensus on the board currently is 3-6 years which still fits in nicely with the plans at Havieron.

ATB Magic

Hi VanV

I did briefly open it. I have a lot of content that I have found and has been sent to me to get through and its in the folder haha. However a brief look it appears as if they are targeting the NNW-SSE trending magnetic feature as their main focus. The other priority 2 targets don't sit on this trend or produce a weaker response. I suppose the main thing I see with regard to SW is that the magnetic feature appears to be folded into an antiformal shape trending NW-SE. The relevance of that is unclear but given Telfer is hosted in two plunging anticlinal structures, it's obviously worth further investigation to see if there's structure there.

Great explanations there Hydrogen. Good to see SW is under less cover so the mining economic would be better. Not sure on the timing of the Thrust fault but could be a result of the Paterson orogen bringing up the already mineralized basement

Thanks ManFromUruguay! Appreciate the feedback and you watching

Thanks for sharing Paddy :)