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Some nice details in the appendix, i will also read before bed aha. Looking forward to your estimate commentary Bamps, you've put out some great work on that front. What's your take on the numbers?
So finally we have reached the anticipated Initial MRE for Havieron - 3.4Moz of Gold and 160Kt Cu. When broken down into the dry tonnes this estimate includes:
SE crescent zone - 18Mt @ 3.8g/t Au, 0.61% Cu
Breccia zone (SE breccia and part of the Northern breccia) - 34Mt @1.1g/t Au, 0.15% Cu
This is based on 125 drillholes and does not include the newly defined eastern breccia, the rest of the Northern breccia and NW crescent zone.
Despite numerous posts by many people on here including myself about not getting carried away with what to expect at an initial MRE, I can see some people have gone into meltdown because this isn't 10Moz or something ludicrous. For an inferred mineral resource, this is more than adequate. High grade, good tonnage and a clear plan to improve the estimate with three additional zones and we are still open at depth and along strike at pretty much all these zones! Newcrest have pretty much confirmed the block cave approach in their reports as the plan for this deposit which = low AISC.
Lets not forget the additional drilling results they have published, all showing excellent widths and above 1.5g/t Au with the stand out being HAD103 with 90.6m @ 2.3g/t Au from 776m in the Northern breccia. I'm not sure if those ones were included in the MRE but they weren't published beforehand. When you consider the journey GGP have been on since June 2019 since the first drilling started (I think it was this date?), there has now been over 126,000m of drilling and a 3.4Moz inferred MRE published in 1.5 years and an astronomical increase in share price. I've been involved in this share since around March this year so have only captured part of the move but just take a moment and realise what an absolutely astonishing achievement GGP has made in a year and a half. All of this in a covid world too. These sorts of discoveries and the time frame it takes to take a prospect through the value curve to this point normally takes years and some companies don't even make it this far because they run out of money or mess it up.
So am I happy with the Initial MRE - yes. Do I think it can be improved upon? - yes. Is this economical? - yes, certainly from the gold price at the moment. The big question is, how big can this become. That's a tough question. I'm no resource geologist however given the three additional zones including the higher grade NW crescent zone, this will surely exceed 5m Oz no trouble. I think this will get closer to 10Moz nearer the feasibility study next year. If any satellite deposits are found, that shouldn't be out of range.
There's a few extra geological details in the report that I won't get into here. In terms of the market tomorrow, I have no idea how this will play out. Historically, news seems to drop our SP but the reaction seems good over on twitter so I dunno. Personally, I will continue to hold especially given the direction of the company outlined at the AGM
ATB
Magic
Agree Paddy, any extra information of the aforementioned Eastern Breccia zone is what we want to see. Callum mentioned that the discovery of that zone has changed their understanding a bit because they thought mineralisation was only contained within the ovoid shape. So any further confirmation the footprint exists outside of that would be interesting
There was that question asking about divesting assets and I noticed he never mentioned the Tasmanian locations. I think if they are looking to offload any, it will be these ones. Obviously there would have to be a sensible reason to; maybe to fund another acquisition, or fund further exploration at the ongoing projects or maybe they get a great offer. Either way I think Tasmania is firmly on the back burner
I listened whilst teaching some 1st years how to identify minerals today. I'm liking the plan for 2021. Plenty of drilling on all manner of targets, development of Havieron to feasibility and the ongoing box cut/decline. Lots of positive langauge, it had a good feel about it and why not! Not many companies have had a year like this. Excited to see what NCM have to say on Thursday. Obviously lots of speculation its the MRE which could be Xmas come early. Scally results is out of their hands as its down to lab turnaround times but that's on the way. Overall pretty happy! Only wanted my question answered but we'll get em next year bois XD
Remember an MRE is an initial resource estimate and often these things increase as more knowledge becomes available. I haven't done the maths but if you hit a 5m oz gold deposit, it gets people talking. So if we surpass that figure, the market will reward that with time and I think justifies the SP because ultimately 5m Oz will produce returns over a long period of time and if you believe in value investing principles, a company should be worth the total amount of earnings it's going to produce in it's life time. I can see the MRE causing some volatility in the SP but i'll be very happy if its over 5m oz
Difference is this time he's an investor (or so he says) in the same company we all are and has absolutely no say in the running of the company or what it does because he's not on the board. His involvement in this company is irrelevant other than as a shareholder. Don't let any individual investor change your opinion on this company, that would be foolish
Firstly the outline is an inference as indicated by the dotted line. They've connected the two drill hole intercepts in 2D space but mirrored the shape of the main crescent. So it might not be this shape in reality, its a best guess i reckon. Secondly, I think because NCM are the main operator at Havieron now, they possibly don't want any 3D images published? SWAG and up until recently PRE is all ours with no JV so we can do what we like. Havieron has been in JV with NCM for a good while. I don't have a problem with there being no 3D images but personally I wanna see more core pictures because you know rocks hahaha
I think until you drill it, you can never be sure. At those depths, you might be intersecting a different lithology not necessarily a breccia. The weaker signal could be interpreted as background noise possibly. It would be tough to release the images, proporting to confirm more breccia mineralization at depth to only then drill it and discover it's not that at all. Best to keep the 3D mag images in house, firm it up and then publish one at a time. That's what i'd be doing if it were me in charge haha
My dissertation project isn't on GGP aha. It's focusing on a different type of deposit called sediment hosted copper. Basically I study the Zambian copperbelt since its the best example in the world of this type. Not many aim listed companies in that area though
I'm only 2nd year PhD guys, still a fair way from getting the Dr at the front of my name. Been alot busier with it the past few months trying to play catch up from the time COVID took from the project.
I forgot to also mention that we're due a rebalance in one or two funds? I think its the gdxj fund but maybe somebody can correct me on that? Either way, that's likely to be positive on the SP as well. Bamps21 correctly says that 2021 is going to be a busy year with Paterson Range East and Black Hills being targeted under the new JV agreement with NCM
The share price rise in the past few days has been brilliant and not long overdue imo. We have on the horizon the hotly anticipated MRE and overdue scallywag news. From what I understand and aligning well with the comments made by GH about assays, the labs in Australia are extremely busy with samples at the moment. There is so much activity out in Australia gearing up before Xmas and because they are entering the summer months. This explains why the Scallywag results have been a little overdue but I do believe we will get them shortly. Good SWAG results only further strengthens the value of the company especially since it is 100% owned. It should also put us in the crosshairs of some more institutional investors hopefully which would be a bonus. All we need now is a strong MRE and significant broker update and 2021 will look very rosey indeed.
Fantastic announcement to go to be to from NCM last night. It's not often you get to invest in a junior with so much support from a major and the financing to go with it. Really great news
So Artemis' report is decent. They too interpret a deep granite body. One thing I forgot to mention is the fact Havieron appears to be an anticlinal structure trending NW-SE. Artemis have also interpreted this and I know others i.e Hydrogen, Paddy etc have said the same thing. An anticlinal structure is a compressional feature. Anticlines are often not exactly perfect and often are fractured/faulted under brittle deformation. The sulphide zone extends down to depth rather vertically and so doesn't appear fixed to a layer. So I still favour the interpretation that the sulphide zone is concentrating along "cracks" within the overall anticline structure. Bloody complex ore body haha
Hi Bamps
I think after the breccia has formed, regional compression has caused a process called basin inversion. During this process, there is movement along pre-existing faults and weaknesses. When this happens, fluids can move any metals or sulphides present and deposit them into these cracks like you say. So if i've read your question correctly, then yes,
I think if we got two stages and the fact that Scally looks even more structurally controlled than Havieron, then I would say there's a good chance the remobilization is greater at Scallywag and could lead to higher grades. I can't say for certain but the proximity to Havieron, it's geophysical responses, similar regional geology and structural geology makes it a very good target. If i'm right in that the remobilization is linked to folding etc, Scally looks quite strongly folded and so we may get significant vein type mineralization and remobilized sulphides. This would be fantastic!
Just seen Artemis have something. Will take a read and see what they say. They seem very clued up on the geology and put out ideas.
Sorry Spinrock - the last paragraph is kinda all you need to know anyway. The rest is me waffling and writing like a scientist haha! Basically - we make the breccia, we deposit metal, we then remobilise that metal into the crescent zone and create the higher grades. Two stage system hypothesis.
So looking at the new updated cross sections of the Havieron deposit, we can see an inner zone of mineralised crackle breccia enclosed within a wider crackle breccia using the geology given on the diagrams. The high grade sulphide appears as a set of shoots occurring close to the interpreted boundary of the breccia zone. However the occurrence of breccia outside of the crescent sulphide zone such as the new potential Eastern Breccia target has got me thinking about the relationship between the two.
This is just a hypothesis based on the data so could be wrong. However, it looks to me as if the crescent sulphide zone is cross-cutting the breccia. This would suggest the breccia formed prior to the sulphide zone. Further evidence is the fact the sulphide zone appears close to the margins of the breccia. If we place that in the overall tectonic framework and the ideas we've come up with regarding a possible structural control, this might make sense. The hydrothermal fluids sourced from a nearby granite generate a breccia through overpressuring of the rock and possibly dissolution of the carbonate within the sediment host rock. The fluids contain metals which deposit in between the breccia fragments after cooling and/or reactions with a different fluid composition. This is followed by remobilization of the pre-existing sulphides in a 2nd stage related to some compression in the region into the sulphide crescent zone. Since the shape of the crescent sulphides appears vertical, this could be concentrating along pre-existing weaknesses such as faults or fractures. I originally thought there might be a porosity control on the sulphide crescent but that looks a little less likely now in my view.
What this suggests (if correct) is that Havieron might contain two mineralization events leading to breccia associated Au mineralization and the Sulphide crescent zone. In the geology section of the appendix, it mentions massive sulphide replacement as a style of mineralization which kinda adds further weight to a remobilization event in the deposit. Sorry for the long post and the technical information. Happy to answer any questions
Magic
Well I certainly cannot wait for Greatland to put this out at 7am tomorrow morning to see what the market makes of this! We have intercepts of 100's of metres exceeding in some cases 9g/t Au average. That's a joke. Plus like Paddy highlighted, we are open at depth and multiple directions. Just when you think you get a handle on the scale of this deposit, we get new information that blows that out the water. Genuinely might struggle to sleep with excitement tonight. Please announce some Scally update tomorrow, that'll be the icing on the cake!
Just reading through now and will post some more extensive thoughts in a bit but all I can say is WOW. The best intercepts to date and a new exploration target (Eastern Breccia) - this is what we're here for.