RE: Might sound like a cliche, but its time to accumulate21 Jun 2022 13:21
Cvm9999 - to use historical facts as a basis isn't a bad thing, its one of the key measures that investors can and should use to determine risk vs reward, so I'm in agreement with that, but for me the risk is worth taking for couple reasons:
1. Historical facts do not dictate future events. This stands true to both failures and successes, therefore even includes my point of kefi doing a 120% from 0.6 to 1.4p, there's no certainty in either, both are speculative. However I would agree with you if you said keeping trust in him is the issue here. It is broken to pieces I concur, but for me, the kefi deal is bigger than Harry, this is why it isn't hinged on Harry alone which is why I can stomach the historical failures of the financial signing.
Do you see that point? If it was down to Harry alone, I think I would've reduced my holding to a few thousand quid only since he himself has failed many times, but here what we are talking about includes the government, mining ministers, corporate banks, private financiers who ALL want to get this over the line.
They too will be pressuring Harry to do his part.
Some failures were also not related to Harry's false promises or placings to be fair, but security issues which were not his doing. We have to take into account those factors too.
2. If we look at risk to reward based on current Mcap and SP then this makes the past failures less riskier now since the discounted SP now has accounted for that e.g. if we were at 1.5p or 2p and at this very stage then yes, there is huge downside since historically the company has hit its highest at approximately 2.5p so there's more chance of dropping heavily on news than at 0.6p. But because we have had a recent placing at 0.8p where ii's have bought, and we've never been this low since covid days, in my eyes there's more upside than down. I bloody hope I'm right thats for sure.
So for me, historical analysis has its pros and cons and cannot be used as a definitive basis when deciding investment, its all a risk.
Question is, is the risk worth taking when the worst case is paper loss?
As long as I'm working and earning a salary, I'll be averaging down in any negative scenario, the motivating factor being the Jorc assets, JV with the highest institutions you can get, Saudi Arabian projects which is a first mover in the country with potential to dwarf TKM.
All of these things outweighs another potential **delay** to the finance signing, again I emphasise delay because its a matter of when and not if.
GLA
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