RE: Next week19 Jan 2020 21:56
Uracca: you make a very interesting observation and theory in your last point as I also believe there has been meticulous planning, collusion and calculation here of certain events that have benefited certain investmt cos at the cost of the majors shareholders
I’ve had a good think about all the events over the past month and my personal thoughts and theories based on reviewing all the news and information that has come out since MW allegations are as follows:
First major question - with the major shareholders originally owning over 80% of shares , how did shorters such as AQR manage to build up such a massive short position of 4.69% in Dec 19 from such a limited free float.
Possible answer: Based on a major holding RNS since book build, Capital Group,was reported to show an increase in holding from an original 5% pre book build to up to 11%. This signifies to me that that Capital Group would have had the collateral in 2019 to potentially lend to shorters such as AQR prior to the MW allegations. I will pick up with Capital Group later, but Black Rock also increase theirtake recently , so they would have been the other potential big donor to shorters for this big shorting of NMC in Dec
Next major question: following MW allegations one of the key red flag call outs amongst other was a £320m debt figure which they alleged was hidden through false accounting practices. MW then proceeded to tweet responses to rebuttals from MW challenging thing like hospital space and also the robustness of doing an Indy review
Now here comes the interesting part for me on this
When the shorters dragged down the sp on run up to bookbuild and then announcement 2 major shareholders selling £370m of shares in NMC and Finablr, to clear indebtedness , it was notable by its absence hat MW chose not make a single comment on this when NMC looked to be on ropes with Sp at lowest for more than 3 years. Why did MW not comment?
Possible answers:
One of the key detailed figures MW gave around they’re was this £320m debt figure. I believe MW based this on researching and already knowing the total amount of debt pledged against shares which were owed to Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. They probably then found out clauses on this pledge that if the sp came down a certain level far enough this would trigger a margin call and thus would likely force a quick sales of shares to call these debts in by the banks. So MW continued challenges to rebuttals post allegations until Sp margin call levels were triggered
Now, with NMC announcing its book build on 15% holding and a call going to IIs to subscribe, we then find out on RNS that there were 3 major holding in company whose holding went up post book build . Norges Bank was one, but the two companies with biggest take up were Capital Group and Goldman’s. Their combined increased stake quoted on RNS equated to them practically meant they hoovered up. most of the 15% book build offered.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
