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First RNS is meaningless as it just confirms of a takeover approach and nothing more. The second can be interpreted in a number of ways and accordingly how market will react

1: This confirms the MW tweet last week and downward price movement thereafter and therefore price drop could have been factored in sp already in advance of this belated RNS

2. Freeh is doing job as an independent reviewer and putting this company back in order and the results from review will indeed be transaparent and warts n all and the company will need to make fundamental changes

3. Directors have used their to power to remove Shetty and Arab owners from the board with immediate effect while investigation are ongoing, suggesting no more interference From them during rest of investigation.

The first 3 points above could be seen in a constructive light by market as all is laid bare and may not see a relentless drop!of scale of last week

The only question is the financials - will they stand up to the same level of scrutiny scrutiny that is now being witnessed by this invesitgation.

IMO Cash and debt will most likely be restated,
profits over the last few years ? - who knows.

On e thing for sure and what I mentioned before is that this company will at the very least go through a restructure as a result of this review and assets may need to be sold to cover debt and the company downsized.

On Either outcome, this sp won’t be going anywhere near £20 for a long long time imo

This is what the loaded Tweet MW put out last week alluded to
They definitely know what is going on here and what Freeh is unravelling.

Nope- heavily down

I’ve spent more the clan William on this and written off a big chunk so far

If Freeh and NMC between them can’t produce a paper on cash or debt position by Monday I have no more sympathy what happens to this sp

Apologies - I meant the 500m in bank being used to plug loan repaid.

I understand loan has been repaid, but don’t know what the loan was intended for and what agreements have been put in place to protect investors. . If repayment of loan has purely come out of pockets of the 2 Arab owners and they are ones that take the hit fair enough, but to my mind these 2 Arab were major investors and probably injected cash into this company to help fast expansion in the form of personal wealth and borrowing from banks.

If money is due back to them based on some sort of pre Agreement and Shetty has to buy them out he will need funds. But this is pure speculation on my behalf and nothing more.

But FT article on Friday definitely alluded to the fact Shetty was actively invovled and planning to buyout his Arab partners. What that buyout looks like, I have no idea, but Hseety will need to find funds form somewhere to do it

I suppose It all depends whether £400m undrawn cash that is meant to exist had to be drawn to replace the £400m loan paid back by the 2 Arabs pledged on shares if these loans were originally used as an investment into expansion of business.

If no news comes from from Freeh or NMC on cash or debt then £3 i reckon by Friday

If news come out, maybe £10 if lucky

If a rights issue gets announced Monday to raise funds at this sp level then the dilution levels will be enormous and this sp is f*cked for years. But more importantly signal cash and / or debt is screwed also. This is a last resort play by company if it has to do this imo

PreserveCapital: appreciate the mention.

I reduce 70% of my holding at that point when sp was 14. But my losses were still massive nonetheless as I have been in this stock since early 2019.

What happened since is incredulous verging on insult to investor confidence

Hynix KGI the only investment house announcing this. Why is Capital Group so quiet with 12% holding. In theory , they are making a massive loss, right?

With all due respect to KGI, I’ve not heard of them so don’t know how big or much influence they have. There is HSBC investment and Barclays Capital who have 1% holding in this company why aren’t they more vocal. KGI also mention have an audio conference with NMC- what during independent review period? Was it just a 1-1, what about Barclay Cap and HSBC were they not invited.

I think this is more speculation from a big investor trying to drum up positive sentiment rather than anything concrete to go on.

We first need concrete news on review findings and results and then you can go over after MW et al once you have good reason to.

Just saying that based on their own research and a supposed conference call with NMc mag they (which I find hard to believe) everything stack up and investor get together should take out court action against shorters is at best hopeful and nothing more.

Any news put in Nmc is now meaningless unless it can be backed with properly audited evidence of fundamentals. It is that simple now

If no concrete news out Monday, I’m out. Simple reason being ,based on the shocking collapse of sp last week based on nothing tangible the minimum the company needs to do is get tangible , concrete news out there to give as a minimum some certainty and if we are lucky hope.

. If they are unable to get anything out then they are either negligent or this company is indeee to got its back against the wall and has.limited outs eg ov er leverages in debt, cash is not what is, and the company is unable to refinance its debts
There may be brief respite based on FT article which may let it touch 800 early AM but if no concrete news form Freeh this will go down to 600 or high 500s. That has been the trend the last couple of weeks. Shorter pumping on speculation and then dumping later on when nothing concrete materializes has been trend the last few days
I see This stock continuelally reducing every day down to 300 and may even touch high 200s next week on no news if shorts continue what they were doing this week.
If i can get out @ 800 rather than still be holding at 200 or 300 mark this time next week I will.

And don’t forget AQR the single biggest short and Psquared have had postions opened for at least 12 months and they have barely reduced over last week and they still hold over 2% short, plus any other shorts below 0.5. This,also still bothering me with me with how low the sp is currently is at .
Omens looking ominous.

NMC and Freeh can see this relentless attack on sp on no news and their action Monday or lack of will tell me a lot. If they let this sp go down to 200 next Friday on no news and based on what we saw this week, I can’t put into words how this would make me feel....

The key for me in this article and the case study used was the comments highlighted in bold half way down and at the end
Quote
The answer, as you may have suspected, is to provide a false signal to help drive the share price down. It would appear trivially easily to arrange for very low UT prices on a small block of shares simply by selling back to yourself or a connected party. This of course would be considered market abuse, and would be illegal. But this does not mean that it can not happen - let's inspect the data to see if there is any evidence that it may be happening.

And then at the end I father article

Quote
Whilst one of these low offers, marked in bright green, did not result in a UT trade the question remains for the ones that were successfully executed - are these genuine trades between independent DMA participants, or manipulated by connected parties to generate trades at prices below those of the Market Maker operated market ?

Of course the information that the market makes public makes it impossible to answer this question via a simple inspection of the publicly available data. However the true identity of the DMA participants will be available to those who operate the market and the FCA, should they wish to investigate further.

What can be said categorically is that this pattern of auction bidding does seem suspicious and is consistent with the hypothesis, suggested by the previous weekend's intense trolling activity, that the stock is currently being shorted.


Don’t get me wrong I am not thinking in the conventional way anymore, I’m thinking totally unconventionally and out of the box here, but my belief is that all the big buy trades and UTs last week are all connected and done by only by finite number of connected parties (namely donors and shorters). i know this implies illegal behaviors, especially if this done using UT but unless court proceedings are taken we will never know one way or the other.

But the exact 900 UT for 11m on Thursday and 11m buy on Friday for exactly 700 is uncanny. Two big players at work during those 24 hours. Everthing else in between was small fry

And for anyone out there interested in reading analytical research in trade pattern manipulation including UTs, try this...
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/auctions-uncrossing-trades-and-evidence-of-manipulation-291

UT is a by AND sell at same time.

In this case study the sell is the donor and the buy is the short trader.
P

Don’t forget 99.9% of trades are all automated they could easily reconcile balance up before makrket close. These are not normal trading conditions imo what we have seen this week

Anyway, no-one has put a theory that can explain the big buy trades at market close all week ( with no supporting RNS announcement of changes in holdings) vs subsequent the tanking of the spam. So let’s agree to disagree on this one

Correction: sp will not grow back as fast as it did before. So effectively those that bought in 20s can whistle

It amazes me of how sentiment quickly changes from the same commentators and timing of their press releases

Back in Dec, when MW put out allegations FT followed up with an article supporting claim of £200m deals being done behind closed doors and debts not being what they seem. They constantly put doubt as to the companies fianncial well-being. Other commentators were also joining band wagon.

Now all of sudden, the company has had the **** kicked out of it, sp has been obliterated and they now put out an article following up closely behind article from II , when price is on verge of collapse, now basically saying that company is unlikely to go bust nowso please reinvest and pile back in, but it will grow back as fast as it did before, so those that bought in the 20s, can whistle.

What an industry of crooked deal makers

Correction: Burford clearly convinced of market manipulation but cannot prove it

Autonomy1: you state the obvious no-one has any evidence of the stock market. If every trades was transparent and itemized with the person or entit doing the trade this would be much clearer.
Burford for example, are clearly convinced of market manipulation but can prove it and are having to take LsE to court to obtain the detail of these large trade patterns. The same will likely follow with Nmc if Burford are succcessful.

I am an bank analyst by trade, albeit not in stock market trading, but my main skills are data analysis and problem solving and all I’ve been trying to do is analyst the data acailba,e and also used research on internet of analysis of shorting patterns in trades and graphs to help with my analysis.

If you have a different opinion to explain the big fall in price last week and massive market close buys I would be open to hear it as it’s good to openly share constructive views here and not just ramp and deramp for the sake of it

The 3rd option I failed to mention is what FT have alluded to Shetty is looking for for new investors to replace the 2 existing Arab partners as presuambky they won’t have the credit worthiness tight now reborrow the £400m they had to pay back.

So if investment can be drummed up via Saudi Royal family which has been mentioned or other big IIs who can be. convinced of the stabiility of this company, then this renewed investment could help its medium and long term debt mgmt and that would be the best chance in terms of upturn in sp as fundamentals and future growth would in theory require the least adjustment in this scenario

There are host of factors that can manipulate share movement.

The UT is always post market closed typically at 16:35. It is where the money is lent out short. So it will have no impact of that days sp. you would need to look at subsequent days to see how the shorter is buying back the stock. Shorter could close in 1 day or 100 days time, the short position does not have a timescale unforunaltely

You can not compare,a UT in Sept 19 , to one now as market condition are totally different and sp is under considerable pressure now. This is why the trends and transactions at market close are so overt.

In normal circumstances, a stockmwill have a balance of automated trades buy and sell and ordinary trades and short will borrow stock and wait for the right time to short

This week, in case of Nmc, the sp has been put under so much pressure due to artificial manipulation. You can see big trades side by side outside of market close hat are both (steel and buy UT) and ordinary buy trades

Then in between during market open period you have mainly Low volume automated trading buy and selling by MMs trending the stock according to pre agreed deals that have already been placed early for market close eg big buy order with target price of 700.

So if you take last night a 11m UT was taken out for shorting @900and trigger signal that this short was being closed out the next day at a target price of 700 so MMs trended the automated trnactions with aim manipulate t he sp to fall to allow for the big buy close which we saw the 11m buy again today plus other big buys which would have related to UTs of previous days.
With the sentiment of this stock being that of fear, free float and ordinary buy and sell transactions will be in the minority so automated bot trading could totally control daily trend of sp especially on no news and then if there panic sells , or stop losses triggered by IIs and PIs even better as this would make lower target SP at end of day even easier to meet. Which is what probably also happed a bit today as sp actually even went below 700 mark for a time, so buy order could have been put even lower if they wanted to be super aggresssive. But 20% drop in one day, on low volumes and no news is mighty impressive but totally manipulated and only possible when you have such extreme market psychosis and fear that allows MMs and shorter to do anything they like.

This is why it is now imperative news come out from Freeh and NMC by Monday am as another £8m UT has taken place tonight and is being readied for next week