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Posted Moleinahole on the 25th August :-

Well the most likely person for us to hear is a liquidator unless they get their act together. If its not a liquidator then the first word should be sorry - followed by explaining the reason for the extended bumpy off road experience, where the dog is and where the golden age has gone. In all seriousness the only answer I want is whether they have a way forward to recapitalise the company. I'd then wait with baited breath for how much its cost me to repair the damage. The silence indicates to me that we haven't yet got an answer.

The reality here remains unless they really have a deal under wraps (which these days I find hard to believe) - the company is either insolvent or they will have to give away alot of whats left to bring in new investment to pay for development and pay creditors. But you never know they could win a court case to get some value back but even then we still owe a huge amount of other creditors and if they lose the damages would finish us off even if the legal expenses don't!

As they only have 1bn shares left - intended to settle YA - equity cant be used without them calling an AGM. So they are more likely to go down a deal which they can control.

So I would say high chance the company folds, reasonable chance we get a dillutive rescue (that helps creditors not shareholders) and low chance something left field like an offer. Based on the accounts alone it would be 100% probability of insolvency and without the political cover 100% of loss of block to government and then insolvency.

Its a total mess - I'm really puzzled how the group company is still going. They may be able to limp on a bit and hope for the best after the elections but that does not solve the financial problems which for shareholders is what really matters and which will eventually stop any company with low revenue and high debt.

At a corporate level the Outrider/Hope cases need to be resolved I think before we hear anything - that is where our delisting and silence was triggered and we won't hear anything till they have a way out of that. Outrider are debt/funding for equity swap predators so once they exhaust the insurance money to pay for litigation maybe they will come back unless they succeed in Block 12 remnants back into the insolvency pot in which case the group will be finished.

Posted Madpunter on the 24th August :-

'And if us taking action did jeopardise the company - what a perfect opportunity for a simple statement, light on detail, to say "company is aware that SH await a communication from the company and this will be dealt with when possible" or words to that effect.'
So you're happy to jeopardise the company as long as they promise a reply. In other words information from FRR is more important to you than the economic success and survival of FRR. After that statement from you I don't think I need waste my time discussing any of the other points.

Posted Looed on the 24th August :-

twist it all you want MP - What I am saying - which you know full well - is that if the company had any concern that any actions taken by SH might negatively impact the company, they could release a simple statement. As they choose not to, they cannot consider SH to be a threat to events on the ground, and so the 'best keep quiet' argument doesn't hold water.

Posted Madpunter on the 24th August :-

No twisting required. Your words 'And if us taking action did jeopardise the company'.
To jeopardize a situation or activity means to do something that may destroy it or cause it to fail.
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/jeopardize

Posted Looed on the 24th August :-

wow - talk about desperate.

As I posted earlier - "It does seem there are a couple of posters whose only aim is to stifle debate and throw anything into the mix to deflect and detract from the conversation. If only they would devote their time to finding credible info to help us understand our situation. So I do question their motives."

Posted OneDayRodney1 on the 24th August :-

It is understandable guys getting emotional over the communication issue given the amounts of monies that some of us have invested here. It has also been a huge rollercoaster of a journey to get where we are and almost all of the surprises along the way have been unpleasant ones. Moreover it is made all the more personal by the fact that many of us have met Zaza face to face and decided to believe what he said and trust him with our hard earned.
However at this moment it seems to me that we are in a delicate crucial phase and so I would support Jonathansxx, CF73 and others' opinion that we should adopt a wait and see attitude, until after the elections and then maybe see where we are.
GLA

Posted Kenco222 on the 24th August :-

I don’t think it helps to bickering amongst ourselves.

In my opinion, there is no excuse that Zaza cannot send something form of message, via some form of communication, especially since he has broken cover in the past few months.

Let’s get the election results out of the way 1st... Then we’ll ask ourselves some tough questions!

Posted Looed on the 24th August :-

Pt.2

Moles comments contd -

"Tsbs as I posted yesterday I' m very wary of the latest developments. Alot depends on who you believe but I tend to place greater weight on verifable information and over the past two years that has been from documents that form part of the litigation. The area that gives me he greatest concern at the moment (and I have many) is the status of transfer. I have just been on the registry site and the process remains terminated. Depending on whether you believe the leaked arbitration documents or not it seems pretty clear that the transfer formed part of the arbitration. The dates tend to tie in with the registry entries. As of today he transfer was not completed on the Georgian side you seem to have an odd legal position in that the asset has been transferred internally in Frontera to FR US but the actual asset remains on the Georgian side assigned to a subsidiary of an entity now controlled by the Liquidators.
The comments by the minister yesterday don't fill me with a great deal of confidence that what could now be happening is that the GG are going to leave the dismantling of Frontera to the liquidation process initiated by Outrider.
The liquidator could now have an asset close at hand to work with a sale beyond the control of Steve and Zaza."

These comments where made before the latest 'olive branch' but if the title of translation #29 (hopefully due today) is anything to go by it seems little or no talks have taken place. We know the offical GOGC position on the asset move - its on their website, but don't know if that position has recently changed.

Flakely said "No body is saying turn the screw....the company has shown a great disrespect to us PI's, from the last shareholders meeting if not before and to this day."

Thats it in a nutshell. Don't be fooled by those who try to equate asking questions with somehow being anti-FRR in bed with the enemy. It wasn't long ago a poster did a Trump by "just putting it out there" the ridiculous 'idea' that the translator was GD plant (just think for a moment. How did they find our translator ? How did they coerce him ? Cue rolling eye emoji).

And if us taking action did jeopardise the company - what a perfect opportunity for a simple statement, light on detail, to say "company is aware that SH await a communication from the company and this will be dealt with when possible" or words to that effect.

Trying to assert our rights and get some form of comment from the company be it directly, via Mole etc is completely reasonable. Zaza is talking to anyone he can, it makes no sense that he can make official statements to all the groups I reeled off yesterday but nothing to the majority of shareholders.

Posted Looed on the 24th August :-

Pt.1

The BB has been relatively quiet for a while so its great to see we had a good debate and some great posts yesterday.

It does seem there are a couple of posters whose only aim is to stifle debate and throw anything into the mix to deflect and detract from the conversation. If only they would devote their time to finding credible info to help us understand our situation. So I do question their motives. It's possible to support the company and be critical of aspects of it.

One thing about this topic that stands out to me is that the exact same argument in favour of keeping quiet. CF73 wrote - not unreasonably - that "If I was in ZM/FRRs shoes right now, with battle being what it is, I would not have time nor inclination to be dealing with LTHs." but you can turn that around and say well thats just proof at how despicably we have been treated, so why shouldn't our voices be heard.

Ziggy picked up on my comment regarding Zaza talking to Mole. BTW my point was in no way to critique Mole, but to point out that Zaza having comms with Mole blows a hole in the "no comms to SH's on legal advice" theory. Ziggy I had a quick look through Mole's recent posts and in a reply to Gipps on 7th Aug he posted - "I'm fortunate in having been able to communicate for longer but my frustration with the company now simply grows." I recall another post where he said he had comms until Q4 '19 but I couldn't see it in the quick search I did. Hopefully Mole can clarify exactly.

For the posters who asked if we would still be part of the company going forward. This is what Mole posted in reply to Ziggy and tsbs1 on 24/07 -

"Ziggy - the ownership is fundamental. Control of that legal entity holds the purse strings of the only real asset and the standing to manage/dispose of it. Outrider based on the 2017 bankruptcy case commentary tried to broker a deal to sell the asset to a company who happen to have also done work for SAOG in Georgia. FTI should be independent but Outrider had been funding their costs. I do wonder if it is FTI who have been chucking spanners in the works (freezing accounts etc) along with other creditors In Georgia as much as the GG - we know there are charges on some assets from the company registry documents most likely mortgages. But FRR have >$20m of debtors apart from Outrider loan notes - so FTI will be under pressure from all creditors and its possible the GG are one as well depending on how you interpret the arbitration costs - they could now be a liability of the entity FIT may be liquidating if its not FR US."

(Mole comments contd in Pt.2)

Posted Looed on the 22nd August :-

Creating 50 jobs over 3 years gets you a Minister and the US Ambassador
"US company Cerberus Frontier will construct a small hydropower plant, to be named Bakhvi 1, in the Guria region of Georgia, announced Georgian Economy Minister Natia Turnava today.

The activities of Cerberus Frontier in Georgia are very important for us, as it develops several small hydropower plants and has a very interesting portfolio..this is a new investment in green energy at a time when the whole world, including Georgia, is fighting against Covid-19...this is another successful example of our economic cooperation with an American company”, Turnava said.

The project details of Bakhvi 1 published by the Ministry of Energy of Georgia read that the installed capacity of Bakhvi 1 will be 12 MW, while the average annual generation should be 78.2 GW/h. The construction cost is $27 million and the construction period is three years.

Turnava said that the new project will create 50 jobs in Georgia."

And

"Ambassador Kelly Degnan: I am very happy to be here for the signing of the feasibility study about the Bakhvi One Hydropower Plant. It’s a sign not only of Georgia’s leadership in this area of green energy, but also another step in the cooperation between Georgia and the United States and Cerberus Frontier in a very important sector for Georgia’s energy security and independence. So, we are delighted to see this moving forward. There is a great deal of effort to coordinate with local communities and to meet very high regulatory standards, and we are very pleased that hydropower continues to be important source of jobs, as well as energy, in Georgia."

(Minster says it's being built, Ambassador says it a feasibility study)

https://commersant.ge/ge/post/natia-turnava-baxvi-hesis-proeqti-amerikul-kompaniastan-ekonomikuri-tanamshromlobis-kidev-erti-warmatebuli-magalitia

https://ge.usembassy.gov/ambassador-kelly-degnans-remarks-at-signing-ceremony-for-bakhvi-1-hydropower-facility/

Posted Moleinahole on the 21st August :-

We don't need to go to Georgia to start to unravel some of this - personally I wouldn't go I wouldn't want to get in the middle of this dispute on the ground in Georgia.
The problem is that its such a mess I have always feared anything unilaterally would further undermine the companies already precarious position. As I have said I do think they are actually still broadly aligned with us. It is the companies continued silence that puts us all in such a difficult position. It pains me to post these days - I think we all want to help the company in any way we can. Many of us have offered repeatedly and our patience is running thin as the board have decided to go it alone and chosen to not even politely decline but to totally ignore the shareholders. That is the behavior that I find unacceptable.

There is plenty of trouble we could collectively stir up but I doubt it will make any difference to the matter in hand. Frontera quite simply have to find a way to restart operations to pay off the mounting debts and or find a deal to bail them and us out. That has not changed since Dec 2018. In reality that was the same position in 2017 and 2016. The difference now is the loss of most of the block and paralysis of the company caused by delisting and running out of money and embroiling themselves in 2 major damaging litigations with their regulator and main bond holder!

I'm pretty sure they expected the GG to not proceed with the arbitration and thrash something out and for Outrider to back off and give them more time. Neither happened and both doubled down in their disputes which became dangerously comingled in May 2019 when FRR tried to move the Georgian assets. The wheels from what I can see really came off in that May to Sept period which is when the company lost its employees and eventually went into the final rounds of the arbitration with no legal team and no real answer to the requirement to surrender the undeveloped parts of the block and Steve hiding from the Texas notice being served.

With the benefit of hindsight its clear the investment risk vs reward here was impossible to calibrate and made impossible due to critical information not being in the public domain to all. The incorrect interpretation of the block 12 termination terms and concealed 2017 note terms were the key items. The 2017 note terms should have been noticed in the PWC audit of full year 2017 accounts (june 2018?) and that's where I feel most let down.
I think they hoped the 2017/18 campaign at UD2 and Taribani would get them over the line and they were well supported in raising the cash to execute the campaigns. That campaign allowed YA to exit but ultimately like the previous campaigns appears not to have generated the cash needed to service the debt. Fine margins but ultimately I still think its the geology that is still the real issue.

Posted Looed on the 21st August :-

Pt.2
More recently, there was the case of Frontera Resources, an American oil company that was granted the right to develop an area of over 5,000 square kilometres in Georgia. The company had drilled countless wells and invested approximately ?€485 million into the country since it won the contract 23 years ago.
In 2017, the ruling Georgian government accused Frontera of significantly breaching their contract and filed a lawsuit against the company. Legal wrangling continued until April of this year when the Georgian government claimed victory in the court case and announced its plan to end its lucrative contract with Frontera. As a result, Frontera is now only allowed to continue to operate within a fraction of the area that it had previously operated in.

The development of Western-style tourism and business in cities like the coastal port of Batumi (above) has stalled as both Europeans and Americans have largely left Georgia in recent years and have been replaced by Russian, Chinese, Turkish, and Iranian investors. EPA-EFE//ZURAB KURTSIKIDZE
Frontera drew strong support from the United States, where a group of congressmen and senators wrote in May to the Secretaries of State and Treasury to protest Georgia’s actions and drawing the American lawmakers’ attention to the “lack of good governance” in Georgia.

These cases cannot be viewed as isolated incidents, as the actions of the current government seemingly have a strong effect on the amount of foreign direct investments that are coming into Georgia. This has fundamentally changed the very nature of the government’s relationship with the country’s once-promising investment culture, which came largely from the West, for the worse.

Over the last two years, the amount of foreign direct investment, or FDI, into Georgia has significantly plummeted. According to the government’s own figures, Georgia attracted approximately $1.978 billion in 2017, while last year it attracted $1.310 billion, a massive decline of over $669 million. This year, Georgia is on course to perform far worse with only $171.8 million in FDI in the first quarter.

The apparent torpedoing of foreign investment projects and the pushing through of laws that could potentially curtail freedom is seemingly at odds with Georgian Foreign Minister David Zalkaliani’s comments last year wherein he said that “both EU and NATO integration are top priorities for the government and are reflected in our constitution” and that “with Georgia, Europe will clearly be richer.”

The simple fact now, however, is that Georgia has a potentially impossible uphill battle in its attempt to prove to Brussels that the statements of the foreign minister are actually true and that the EU should bother to lay out a path for further integration.

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/georgias-hostility-to-foreign-investment-is-not-fitting-into-its-eu-membership-goal/

Posted Looed on the 21st August :-

Georgia’s hostility to foreign investment is not fitting into its EU membership goal
Pt.1 - FRR is discussed

There is a growing concern in Brussels that Georgia is fast becoming an unwelcoming place for investors after the latest in a long list of foreign direct investment projects have been put in grave danger of being derailed by the Georgian government’s constant undermining.

The latest case, however, could have wide-ranging knock-on effects for nearly 2 billion people and a wider region that goes far beyond the South Caucasus.

During a series of late-night meetings in mid-July, the Georgian government passed amendments to their electronic communication legislation that gave the telecoms regulatory authority (GNCC) almost complete control over telecommunications companies and gave them the ability to appoint “special managers” with absolute authority.

Some other Georgian telecoms firms wrote a letter of protest, claiming that the changes contradict other laws and are potentially unconstitutional. Their main concerns were based on the real fear that the new law could be used to curtail freedom over the internet.

However, sources say that this law seems to be aimed at one firm, in particular – Caucasus Online, whose owners, Neqsol, hail from neighbouring Azerbaijan.

Neqsol is building a digital silk way project of fibre optic cables through several countries, a move that will improve internet access for 1.8 billion people across the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Central and South Asia regions.

When the decision was made to buy Caucuses Online in 2018, all parties met with relevant senior figures to the Georgian government, including the head of the GNCC, and throughout the series of meetings no objections were raised by the regulator or the government.

In August of 2019, after Neqsol had paid €51 million for Caucasus Online, the GNCC unexpectedly announced that it wanted to scrap the sale, supposedly because Neqsol had not, according to the GNCC, informed them of the sale in the proper fashion despite countless meetings between the two parties.

This hasn’t been the first example of Georgia undermining foreign direct investment.

One of the most notable recent cases involved Anaklia, a planned deep-water port project in western Georgia, which would have been the country’s largest infrastructure project to date. The investors behind the project filed arbitration claims against the Georgian government in July having accused them of undermining the €2 billion project. The Georgian government claimed that the investors had failed to raise sufficient funds, while the investors put the blame on the government for creating conditions that made impossible to attract any direct investments.

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