RE: Madp - Firm Figures29 Sep 2020 16:03
1) IMHO Uncle Sam and FRR were waiting for the election. The lobbying has been going on for years, it just increased in the run up to this time. Due to the Texas case and the timing of events both SN and ZM needed to be incommunicado.
2) SH/O were trying to takeover FRR by restricting avenues for finance. IMHO I wouldn't call that petty.
3) It would be impossible to farm out with the arbitration ongoing. They were being hampered from selling oil by the GG, so IMHO FRR could have been expecting to pay off the interest.
4) YA sell the shares in every company they lend to and possibly before they get them (this time they were presumably caught by FRR, hence the court case and quick resolution). There was no increase, it was constant for months when they were allowed to convert the preference shares.
5) If bank accounts are frozen and FRR is prevented from selling oil, then staff have to go. If the court cases needed stalling, then it was essential for the need to be incommunicado.
6) By the final round of the arbitration, FRR would have had a fair idea of the result of the arbitration and the incommunicado was possibly more important. It would also be difficult to pay their share of the costs if bank accounts are frozen and possibly lawyer's fees.
7) Eldari B was a gusher flowing at 250bbls/d from only a 3mm aperture. As it was flowing unaided and with associated gas it is unlikely to decline and possibly even increase, as when the gas gets carried along, bubbles that block the fissures are removed. Ditto answer 3). No the arbitration is now over and the main obstacle is the length of the PSA.
8) If FRR haven't informed SH's of events since early 2019, then why should the Dolphin bid be different?
The 1% has most, not all of the value. Plus as the resource is so huge, the sweet spots would be extracted from first and possibly for many decades, and these will recharge from further afield (even from outside the 1%). The other areas will probably never be developed, as the move towards renewables increases over the coming decades. It is always a juggling act as whether to spend on proving up a larger resource, or spending on getting those reserves proved booked.
The oil and gas is hard to get out in volume as it needs a shed load of money spent on infrastructure. The gas requires processing facilities and pipelines and as the Eldari B has associated gas it is the same. While the Eldari A oil doesn't require as much infrastructure, it only flows at low volumes.
IMHO the silence by both sides in Georgia suggests a deal is being negotiated.
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