Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
rosscorp, pretty much agree with all that... except I'll not be "content to accept ZERO rather than accept the offer presented."
I will stand my ground in the belief a better offer will come... but if it doesn't and we loose all then I will be far from content.
I have absolutely not said "we will get an upfront offer"...
I may have suggested the fact Kinross got one increases the prospect that we might....
To which you said "Cash upfront aint gonna happen.." and now we understand the basis of your view... so thanks for that.
JEZZAC, why do you think a cash up front offer wont happen? It happened for Kinross that we know of and possibly others that we don't.
If they want the assent then a better deal will appear as it seems unlikely the asset will be nationalised...
I'm considering the 680M as a fair valuation at the time, in the same way our NPV is also a fair valuation at the current time.
So if they got half their fair value maybe we can get half of ours too.
Personally I see the payment terms as part of the deal. So when the payment terms are improved, massively such that most of the cash is paid up front, then in my view so is the deal.
I take some comfort from the facts that
a) the Kinross deal was improved
b) our TEO based, conservative NPV is know out there... and this must surely be considered a fair valuation
So an offer at 50% NPV with payment upfront would work for me... just...!
Otherwise I'm prepared to wait it out.
Whilst not holding my breath, I do take some reassurance from this that a better offer will arrive.
Also, I cant help thinking that Russian buyers will see the current situation as an opportunity to buy up cheep western assets... so they will want to get these deals done before the situation improves.
" it must all be paid out to shareholders guaranteed."
I think many of us... myself included... assumed that's what would happen. But really when you think about ... why would it?
The job of CEO is to run and grow the company and create shareholder value through running the business. So actually if the main asset is sold then looking for a new asset to develop and further explore... while perhaps returning some cash to shareholder.... seems to me like the right thing to do. (unless of course AMC was bought which would be a different scenario).
I'm comfortable with this as the asset we have is hard to value... hence the wandering SP. If it was sold and we then had 100M cash in the bank... then that's quite easy to value.. and the SP should reflect a MarCap of about 100M. At which point the share holders can decide if they wish to stay or not.
“We take good care of those foreign businessmen who stay [in Russia]. We have extremely great respect and the same care for those businessmen who, under pressure, are now forced to wait it out, but who have already said that they will resume their activities here as soon as possible,”
Well that is nice to know...
Now if you'd just stop bombing your neighbours and murdering your political opponents... activities should resume all the quicker.
I cant help suspecting that AMC have been pushed/forced to use very conservative prices and estimates, in order to get he TEO "approved by the Russian Federation State Committee".
This is as much stated by RY in his comments. (comments that read like a criticism of the TEO.) i.e.
"Necessary adjustments allowing for the identification and approval of operational parameters and considerations, associated capital / operating costs, the revenue generation from the sale of individual nickel and copper concentrates and selected commodity prices were defined. "
Its as if the RF have pushed to make a low valuation. But then they would... wouldn't they!
The key takeaway for me is that even with these very conservative estimates the mine is still viable, and with potential for significant upside from the TEO NPV.
as TD2 already pointed out...
"the $6.56 per pound nickel and $3.07 per pound copper utilised in the TEO Project," are way out of date.
I wouldn't necessarily expect todays price to be used... but clearly the TEO calculations are very conservative.
Today Nickel is around 12.9 and copper is about 4.3
"I don’t think the publication of the TEO will make any material difference. the buyers will already have seen the detail "
Given what's happened with the price of nickel... I think knowing what we have and how the financials now look is vital. We don't really know what we're trying to sell at present...
We should see the TEO IMO.
husato.... well said... we should email Robin and tell him exactly that... perhaps propose a resolution for the marketing focus on China other non- west places...
Bod needs strengthening in the regard ...