Member Info for MadMat

Still cheap, even at 1500

I also attended the Wizz presentation this morning. ( had to leave before the end so missed some of the Q&A)

I did leave feeling confident things were going as well as can be expected, give the various challenges

Main thing for me is that Profit is guidance is maintained for FY25

below are the notes I took.

-=========

- P&W

o Needed wet leases to maintain capacity, otherwise routes would be taken by competition

o Reassign fleet capacity

o Compensation deal is being improved

o Work is progressing but is still a way to go

- Operational Perf

o Fleet is increased 189 > 232

o Wett leases are ended

o 44 aircraft grounded, capacity protection is priority

o

- Financial

o Passenger numbers up, fare prices up

o Inefficient fleet

 Due to old aircraft and wet leases

 EBITDA down due to 44 ac grounded

o Crew costs

 Need to maintain crew capacity to ensure readiness for capacity growth

o Huge impact of grounded aircraft, spare engines etc. impacting efficiency

o Compensation for P&W H1 is about 146M€

 Negotiations continue trying to improve this

o Have reduced number of routes to focus on most profitable routes

o High one-off costs in H1

o Cash position is 1.59B, would have been 500M more but bond repayment was made

 Net leverage is too high

 Other debts paid back early

o Revenue performance is stronger

 Re assignment of capacity to more profitable routes

 Densifying existing markets rather than diversifying into new markets

 Move of HQ to Budapest is complete, the disruption is over and benefits are being seen

 Expecting 8-12% ish revenue improvement next period

o Cost focus

 Wet leases ended Oct 2024

o Fleet

 Airbus and other supplier issues causing delay in new aircraft delivery, impacting Wizz and whole industry

o Outlook F25

 Net Profit guidance remains unchanged €350-€450M

o Questions from the likes of JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Jefferies

 7% capacity reduction due to Israil.. that capacity is now reassigned

 Supplier compensation will continue at approx. current level

 Optimistic next fy

 Trying to add Gpay/Apple Pay. Removing credit card processing costs.

A key factor is whether they've improved efficiency around the wet leases and engine work. 3 months isn't very long to make any significant changes.

However passenger numbers are good and it was only a few weeks ago that Varadi was predicting 10-20% growth for next year.

The 44% profit drop in Q1 was mainly attributed to the Wet Lease costs, which were also stated to be one-off costs... so if I understand correctly we wont see these again in Q2.

I'm feeling optimistic, but would also like to know @boselecta, if there is any thought or rational behind what you sniff.

We've had monkey pox here since 2022, but its not the bad sort

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/mpox/#:~:text=There%20have%20been%20a%20small,1%20mpox)%20in%20the%20UK.

BVy that logic perhaps we should rename 'Investment Bank' to 'Gambling Bank', as I don't believe they put all the money in 0 risk 'investments'.... they are in fact gambling with it. Correct?

Gambling and Investing are fundamentally different.

They both have an element of risk vs. reward, however the whole idea of gambling that the house wins and the punter looses. Even with roulette its not just red and black (50:50), there is also green, sometimes two green. So the odds are always in favour of the house.

Not so with investing.

Just because an investment crosses a certain risk threshold does not make it the same as gambling.

55% spread atm... I've never seen anything like it

I'm expecting good results on the 7th... and I expect that to turn sentiment around; which will initiate the return to 25-30 levels.

Hi Swazers, how did you workout the Debt-to-Equity Ratio?

many thanks

Thanks APUL, its been discuss previously that the debt of Wizz look artificially high due to the accounting requirement of reporting future contractual hire commitments as debt. (Ifrs16 or frs 102... not sure)

However the point is we're not sure how much is real debt and how much is future leases... which in my view are just foreseeable Opex.

The Wizz EMTN programme was for 3bn, so can we concluded that the difference is the leases?

That of course is assuming earnings remain unchanged

Ticker PE Ratio

EZY 12

JET2 7.7

IAG 4.4

WIZZ 3.9

Any views on the huge disparity between PE ratio?

If WIZZ had a PE same as EZY then the WIZZ SP would have to be 3729

If EZY had a PE same as WIZZ then the EZY SP would have to be 169

Discuss... !

Its the Great Big War we need to worry about

Surprising the difference between Citi (1000) with say UBS, (2245)...

they're not in the same ball park

Hi OTCDS, any chance you can reference you sources.

So far I only found this... which despite the attention grabbing headline, is actually positive on Wizz.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/wizz-air-holdings-wizz-gets-a-sell-from-citi-1033820414

Can't say I know much about charts...

But if you look at the SP chart over the past few year you can see

October 2020, October 2022 & October 2023 were all relative lows followed by strong growth.

October 2021 was a bit different

Hi Beo, are the losses in other quarters so bad the fy results are pulled down to £350m. ?

ie if the q4 profit is 750m and the fy profit is 350m, then the q1+q2+q3 losses must be 400m correct?

I'm not an accountant.. so I've probably misunderstood something... I'd be glad if someone would enlighten me. thanks

Considering FY23 was about £350m, expecting £720 for q4 seems overly optimistic to me.

Is your aspiration based on anything other than hope?

Dont blame me... you started it.

.... and this is just the beginning. I expect strong growth in SP well into next year... and beyond.