Member Info for LWHL

The latter, IMO. If this revisits circa 200p on no company-specific news, I am going to buy some of my trading stock back I think. Risk being if no deal comes to pass, the SP will return to pre-bid RNS levels, probably a bit lower. If it does, or even a higher offer, that would be a nice percentage win, especially in this climate. But this may be the bottom of course.

I am certainly not brave enough to buy until the US opens, even if 145p were to hit. Not saying it will, just my POV.

I was expecting a (dead cat) bounce this morning. Perhaps waiting to see how the US fares when their markets open? Any technical traders here? 145p looks like some degree of support to my unskilled eye, but I would welcome the opinions of anyone who actually knows chart stuff properly.

I am satisfied enough with that update. Still a market to be careful in, so while I am pleased to see the SP looking less sickly than before and still confident in the BOD here, which has proved justified to date IMO, I am holding, rather than adding, for now. No plans to sell anything before 20p either though and will add if market conditions deteriorate further and we revisit the 12's, or lower. Would rather not have the opportunity to do so however! GLA.

Yeah, not sure I would be too happy if I was a HSBC holder. Reminds me of those government approved/driven takeovers that happened last time. Maybe it will be different this time of course. So, the only losers are the SVB shareholders I assume?

Chris Whalen and Peter Schiff also offer some interesting (and differing) opinions on this topic. Advice: Do not listen to the latter if you are of a nervous disposition or close to your bedtime :) Yes, he is the ultimate perma bear, but I also enjoy hearing his take on financial stuff. Good to read as widely as possible, to avoid falling into an echo chamber IMO. Anyway, it will not take long to see if this gets contained effectively or otherwise. IMO, it might take a few days to see the direction of travel here, so not going to read too much into Monday market action, here or across the pond.

I remember reading somewhere that Lehman was technically solvent. Trouble was, everything was so convoluted and opaque that many, many months passed before this was discovered - long after the doors had shuttered there. If anyone is familiar with a youtube channel called Wealthion, they cover the SVB topic and some of the potential ramifications that may result in the weeks/months ahead. No shortage of media coverage I'm sure, but I like listening to this one, among others, for a weekly general market update (US focused, but often spans global financial issues at the time too).

That is true, Investing101. Vix still below 25 too, although that can change quickly, of course. Not long to wait to find out. Even if this does herald the next bump in the road (not sure it can be called a black swan, given that this was one of several banks under the spotlight for at least a few months already), then we all have some powder dry to deploy when we feel the time is right. Personally, I am not feeling nearly nervous enough yet! Some of the buys I made in April/May 2020...that was scary stuff! If the whole thing is going to collapse and never return, then a few quid in the stock market would be the least of our troubles. If it comes out the other side (historically far more probable of course), then the old buy when others are fearful mantra will work well again. GLA.

Having done a little more reading into SVB, baronbog is right to point that out. Still not saying it will necessarily be carnage on Monday, but I am now absolutely certain that the Fed and others will indeed be working very hard this weekend. This is a bigger potential threat to the banking sector than some may think. Not every one of them has JPM's financial strength...and the likes of that bank can only buy up/buy out so many of the more vulnerable financial institutions. People have been talking about the Fed pivot for months now. IMO, it is getting pretty close now.

I am not convinced that this is contained yet. Not saying Monday will see a spectacular market drop, but I remain very bearish right now. I remember when Northern Rock went down. After an initial flurry of panic, things went back to normal. For a bit. Then...we know the rest. Anyway, time for some good red wine and family time! Good weekend all.

Those are my thoughts too, Moneyman. Started off quick, short term trading this one, then did a bit more research and decided to build two pots. One for trading and one for the longer term. Hopefully both will yield fruit, but I take nothing for granted, especially when it comes to AIM. It is why quite often my posts may come across as bearish/de-ramping, which is not my intention! GLA.

Took another 5K. Like the risk/reward here as things stand, but not buying big anywhere right now, even those ones where I feel very bullish. To date, I still have bought more than Arun has so far :)
At the risk of tempting fate, IMO it feels like mid 14's is starting to show some strong support. Hopefully it is only a matter of a few weeks to wait and see if my buys were smart or stupid :) GLA.

Lets see how the UK market looks when the US opens. Agree with your points on SVB though. Whatever happens, I suspect a number of senior bankers will be working hard over the upcoming weekend. Probably some meetings with various central bank heads, too. I wonder if BARC will postpone the buy backs now? Not because they have cash concerns, but as a sop to any concerns about general liquidity. I guess that might run the risk of unduly raising concerns about the company though, so probably not a good idea all things considered!

Not just SVB, but fears over CS (still not out of the woods by a long shot, IMO) and a few other financial institutions not quite on the mainstream radar yet. Coupled with apparently some big shorts recently opened against the banking sector = where we are at the moment. Could be a buy the dip moment but I am going to watch for a bit longer personally. Might miss the opportunity of course, but so be it. GLA.

I would not be surprised if he has been dumping IQE today. Shows that even highly successful investors can have a bad run. Not sure how his other ones are faring. Anyway, the latest RENE update is neither here nor there really - Iain and the team pull a good deal or two off and we re-rate. No need to point out what the result will be if they do not. GLA.

That was pretty much exactly the number I had in mind too, JayK. Without the buy backs though, not sure I would chance it. Still pondering. Thanks for your thoughts mate.

Dodgy SPAC's put a few in the graveyard in the past couple of years.

Absolutely not, Stokey. If the BOD keep doing the right things, as they seem to have been in my short time here (I appreciate LTH opinion may be different), then eventually a move up to the main market might be both viable and sensible. In fact, if they did decide on such a route, prior to becoming a highly profitable company for example, then that would be me out.

This is nowhere near blood on the streets territory! But completely agree with the general notion. Vix still below 20, among other indicators that would suggest the storm has not even started yet. Of course, sometimes it strikes out of nowhere and fast, so this comment may be outdated within a few days or weeks, or even hours :) Or maybe years. I am very good at calling recessions. I have called about five of them since 2011 :)

While I completely sympathise with the views of LTH's here, from a trading perspective...this is starting to look interesting again IMO. What are your thoughts, JayK and Mr Wolf?