Member Info for LWHL

I think (and I guess you could also say I am also gambling) that the management will find workarounds, as will capitalists more generally, to make profits.

Even under a Trot sympathising, socialist government, and all the risks that that entails. Should we ever get one of those, of course.

Simon: in answer to your question 'when will they learn'? Well, historically, they do not learn. They just get replaced. Sooner or later. Some of the literature of Jared Diamond and Lord R-M (Jacob's father) I would say is well worth reading, although probably not if you need trigger warnings on your cornflakes box :)

To be clear, I advocate nothing in the above. Do not want to overstep into potential accusations of thought crime...

Meanwhile, getting really close to another buy order filling. Just another 400-ish shares, so a nibble, not a meaty bite.

Will add those to the others in the current batch with the planned sell around 400p or so.

No rush. No guarantees either, of course. GLA.

If that is the case, then it will be no different to the tactic (or perhaps coincidence? lol) that we have seen for well over a decade. Identikit politicians that occasionally swap one colour of rosette for another. Certainly when it comes to social and international policies that I care about largely.

I guess we get the politicians we deserve.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the US markets fare later, after they have digested the Nvidia update. Just shy of 7% down in after hours trading. Hardly a weak update, but that company is still pretty close to being priced for perfection right now, in my view. Even allowing for the buy back programme that they have announced.

Feels like we need another little pull back across the wider indices to work off some of the overbought conditions. Which would be healthy, to a point.

For those hardworking and successful guys and girls in this name, lol.

I particularly enjoyed the sentence about them forgoing cash bonuses to extend the cash runway. How generous of them.

A small bonus might have been merited upon receiving each of the Stalicla payments.

Speaking of which, has that been resolved yet?

Any new deals elsewhere that are going to extend the cash runway, by you know, bringing in cash that is not directly from shareholder pockets?

There are more similarities than differences in this niche space with the worst of the public sector mentality, than the corporate world, IMO. In the real world, you get fired for failure, not a bonus!

More front than Blackpool.

I welcome your thoughts and certainly do not dismiss them.

These chat boards are for sharing ideas, bulls and bears alike. Waste of time otherwise. GLA.

You make some excellent points, although I do not know if the NW is representative of the rest of the UK. Especially London and the SE.

Those I know who remain in the BTL game are gritting their teeth and making things as efficient as they can, planning to weather the storm.

Some of them are going to add more once interest rates drop.

If we did not have open door immigration, then the threat of a property crash might be quite high, given all the macro challenges.

As things stand (in their view) this risk is small. Anecdotal I appreciate, and a smaller sample size than you will have knowledge of.

I myself do not know enough about that space to comment in either direction.

As to other jurisdictions to flee to, well, there are not many that do not have similar issues right now.

Again, I know a few who are pondering a move to a more sensible tax regime, but even then, for many HNWI's, a move to eg Jersey is not that easy, insofar as family commitments, friends etc. UHNW is a different ball game.

Trust me, I am as bearish as they come (lol) but as part of a diversified p/f (I am not just talking shares - they are all one single asset class) IMO this is not a slam dunk sell. Not at this price. But not betting my house on it. The government will find a way to get dibs on that, no doubt. Was going to add an 'lol' to that sentence....but it might be a bit too close to the truth.

Politicians are full of it. I simply refuse to believe that they did not have sufficient access to the books prior to the GE. Otherwise, no party could provide a fully costed manifesto to the electorate. Not that they ever choose to deliver on said pledges, but the point still stands.

And the uniparty has been spending more irresponsibly than a drunken sailor on shore leave since Major left office. Some might be of the opinion.

Anyway, as I said on a different chat board the other day, IMO, CGT hikes are likely to reduce the supply of rentals and the number of landlords selling up.

I think most landlords are about the rental income stream, with the added bonus of cap gains when they sell. Not the other way around.

And what other asset class are they going to turn to instead? Government bonds? They have only been a worthwhile investment quite recently, for the first time in ages. And even then, you lose the best part of 50% of those profits in tax when the bonds mature.

Crypto and gold perhaps, but IMO not on such a significant scale that those asset classes will eat the lunch of bricks and mortar.

Farmland has already been snapped up (and appreciated in value considerably) by the wealthy in 2020 and 2021. They understand how money supply works, even if the BoE (and the other central banks) give a good impression of not having understood it. Again, an opinion that might be held by some.

And I also wonder if this government might look to remove the IHT benefits that currently exist within this niche space. That would be interesting to see. As would attempts to tax unrealised gains. Something that I suspect would struggle to get over the line from a legal perspective.

Not least because it would directly affect a significant amount of the politicians themselves.

But I could be wrong. Time will tell etc.

If the price dips a bit more. Might set a cheeky buy order pre-market and see what happens.

Indeed. Or even sooner. EVOK went from 49p to just over 70p in a flash, having collapsed from the high 80's to that low print in less than a month!

IMO, the best way to trade, or invest, is to have plans for several levels, not just all in positions in one go. Same for target exit points.

You can risk compounding losses that way too, but I have found, on balance, this strategy is quite effective. Fingers crossed naturally :)

It is possible. Fairly low volume though. IMO, more likely some PI's who lost patience with the lack of a continued rise the past week or so. Perhaps some increased anxiety over the macro stuff too, although the VIX is still under 16 at the time of print, so not that I think.

As long as we remain above 121p ish, then the upward trend remains very much intact, IMO. Maybe even a bit lower.

Although obviously in a few weeks, we will have the next update, so the new data will shape the direction of travel from that point. GLA.

Good post, Simon. I read a few of yours in relation to this name a while ago, and think you make some considered comments.

Subject to the obvious caveats, this is a holding that I am willing to bottom draw, if needs be. While trading around the sides hopefully, as I have done with a few other stocks at various points and in various trading ranges.

I also never like to see insider selling, but unless I am mistaken, they took place at a price materially higher than now.

I also think (but time will tell) that the fundamentals reflect most, and even perhaps all, of the risks that we can feasibly factor in right now. Including some hapless government meddling in the pipeline.

All that said, this is my second or third smallest holding, and I am not looking to 'promote' it much higher than that. Not until after the autumn Budget anyway.

I do not see a bid coming in before then either, but would not rule out such a scenario more generally.

That potential wild card is not part of my long thesis here though.

I am small time in this stock market stuff, Mary :)

While taking nothing for granted of course....I completely agree.

And like buses, my buy orders have all triggered today, after having missed virtually all of them before.

So I now almost have enough to make it worth slicing a few if/when that 400p range comes back into focus. Will take a view near the close, but no further orders in the pipes right now.

The buy backs should chomp through a nice amount of these sells anyway.

Not much support that I can see at this level, so we might be on the cusp of a new, lower trading range, if we do not close at least around the 385p ish mark within the next few trading days, IMO.

Will take a few more if we see mid 360's, then a slightly more meaty bite around the 350's, if either comes to pass. GLA.

Yeah. There is the low 370's I said would happen a couple of weeks ago, or whenever it was.

Fairly amazed it took so long to happen. Expected it very soon after ex div, not now, lol.

The chart did play out how I anticipated it would. Should have trusted it and been more patient.

Still, I got a buy order that hit myself and will add more if we go lower. GLA.

Not advice of course, PSK, but this one has seen some nice little trading ranges over the past week or so.

Good opportunity IMO to either look to accumulate with buy orders at the lower end of the current range (not that many of mine are hitting, lol), or if you already have enough, you can do as Mary has been.

Something that I also would have been doing here, had I sufficient shares to make it worthwhile for those small swings.

Many ways to skin a cat etc. GLA.

We must read different newspapers, because I am not aware of any landlords that raised rents due to pleading poverty during that period of time. I know a few who did so because the rising cost of materials, labour and government red tape necessitated it.

And some in anticipation of rent controls being rolled out. Like a few basket case countries have already done. With predictable results. None of which have benefited tenants.

They are not charities and furthermore, in most cases, are net contributors to the state coffers.

But do not worry, because soon enough virtually all landlords will be mega corporations, with complex financial arrangements. Many based offshore, I suspect.

Which will be bad news for the Exchequer, because they will pay significantly less tax than the small landlord cohort, along with providing inferior tenant service experiences too. AIMO.

Anyway, I see you have not answered my questions. Not unexpected. I would not be able to answer them either, from your starting point.

The really troubling thing though, is you probably share the same opinions and illogical premise that most of the current government (and a fair chunk of the current blue and yellow parties) believe as well.

No more de-railing from me here. I just saw that initial comment and could not resist responding to it.

GLA holders.

Ade1234: Why 30%? Why not 50%? Or 100%?

Do you include those who hold property in a company, or an offshore trust, or just the (tiny) number of individuals who have three properties or more outside of one structure or another?

How would it 'hand back' housing stock, exactly? And what is a 'decent price'?

Socialist economics at its finest :)

IMO, a rise in CGT, as seems to be nailed on, is more likely to reduce the housing stock that hits the market, not increase it. IMO, most who are concerned about CGT hikes have already sold, or in the final processes of selling up.

With the result being that the already challenging conditions for renters, and shrinking supply of rentals, is going to be squeezed even more. As Ireland are finding out too.

If you want to see house prices come down, you could advocate for a return to UK population levels circa 1960. That would do the trick.

JD was one of the positive examples I had in mind. And one that provided a nice few trades for me, although I did not stick with my original final target exit price on my last tranche in that one. Which naturally hit soon after I sold, lol. As so often happens.

ASOS has been a very good trading one for me though over a fairly short time-frame, and like I said, those inside buys, especially by Barker, are not to be sniffed at either.

This one, for me, is purely a technical trade play. Not least because I too have limited knowledge of this particular sector and zero inside knowledge of the company itself (more is the pity! lol)

Not ruling out actually investing here, rather than just said trades, but that would need to be driven by clear evidence that the strategy is starting to bear fruit.

Which would naturally command a higher purchase price than now. But that would be fine by me, and I suspect many others, who would also jump on board in such circumstances.

In the meantime, GLA and I hope to be a holder here at some point in the future again.

From what I have seen, from similar retailers here and across the Pond, it has been a mixed bag.

I am inclined to agree with you, but the wild card of course is whether ASOS is going to be one of the few who have bucked the wider trend.

If they have, then this one is IMO going to see a short squeeze, although the next update is far enough away (unless I am mistaken about the date) that shorts might have the chance to unwind in an orderly fashion before then.

From a trade perspective, I have not trusted my read on the charts here since my last position, so have remained on the sidelines.

And I cannot project what might be a good entry price if the next update is poor, although presumably if it is below guidance, then they will have to notify the market in advance.

But it has remained very much on my radar, not least as a result of those significant inside purchases, on top of the relatively small number of shares in issue and the small free float. GLA.

That is fair enough and I looked at your posting history and can see you are keen on this space.

Well done on some good choices and presumably some very good profits!

And your posting history suggests you know more about this particular space than I do too, so I never thought that you were one of the mindless cross-stock pumpers you see from time to time.

I do think MTRO could go either way, but equally, I have been looking at that chart and as I said the other day, it is an interesting one!

Anyway, see what this new week brings. GLA.