Member Info for LWHL

Sandgrove did used to be listed on the Bluejay website under substantial shareholders. It currently says last updated on 16th July 2024 without them.

No idea when that changed. I have not looked at it for ages.

If they have exited fully now, they are legally obliged to notify the market and presumably the company as well.

The company has often made clerical errors when it comes to various things they publish, but in fairness, they seem to make corrections quickly after these errors are pointed out.

To be clear, I am not suggesting that they have forgotten to update the market re Sandgrove and M&G - I have no idea if Rach is right - but it is strange that they are not on the shareholder list now, when previously they were.

I am keeping back plenty of dry powder though. So when we get the next big hit, as sooner or later is inevitable, I will not be stuck all in, with no opportunity to buy some quality names at fire sale prices.

For example, I have locked in profits on three names this week. Two slices and one full exit. I have several other sell orders in the pipes for a few stocks and a few buy orders as well.

But maybe 35% in cash at the time of print (as far as the stock market stuff goes).

I was maybe 90% invested in March 2020, lol.

Lessons do not come free, but as long as you try and learn from them, then they can turn out to be an educational investment of sorts :)

Anyway, sooner or later you are going to have the chance to get back into equities.

As long as you do not fall into the trap, as some people did in 2008, of not trusting that the bottom was in....and still not back in the market all these years (and significant market gains) later. Which apparently is not as uncommon as it might sound. GLA.

I have set a book mark buy order, at a price that I think is still too frothy right now, but on balance am attracted to having some skin in the game here.

So, if it hits, I will mention it, then will look to potentially buy more tranches on the way down.

It does not sound like the conference call put minds at rest, and no inside buying yet either, so I am increasingly wondering if we are on the cusp of some boardroom activity here.

Paying particular attention to see if any TR-1's drop. I would likely be negatively influenced if certain major shareholders were reducing, for example.

Might all be immaterial of course and this might be the bottom, in which case, my research and musings will all have been for nought! GLA.

Yeah, I have been pondering that scenario too. A new broom can be a good thing of course, but it does add new risks.

You need to make sure the new guy/girl is a big hitter, especially for a large cap like this name.

Then you need to give them at least 12-18 months to hopefully deliver.

Their first market update is always a worry too, because you never know if a kitchen sink is going to be thrown, as they try to get any remaining legacy bad news, or hidden nasties, out of the way, to give themselves a clean slate. For obvious reasons.

Not that such negative things always happen of course.

Alternatively, you do have the potential take out scenario, but I am not sure what price would be acceptable to the key people here.

Ultimately, right now, I do not think that a potential bidder would be willing to go as high as they might want, so I do not think that should be part of one's thesis currently. But I could be wrong.

Still at the early stages of my research in this one, so just my basic musings/ramblings :) GLA.

Thanks FP. I had a little look into the financials after my (lazy) post. IMO, nothing unduly concerning on that front.

Plenty of debt maturing down the line and presumably lower interest rates baked into the medium term horizon at least.

If they cut the dividend, that would see a number of investors and some funds exit here, based on the criteria that this cohort follow.

So they should not do this unless absolutely essential IMO. It is only a trifling amount as it is.

Some notable inside purchases would not hurt though, especially by the key leadership figures.

Nothing speaks louder to the confidence of a CEO's words than seeing them put their hand in their pocket :)

Fatprofits (or anyone else) - do you know what the latest debt figure is here? Net debt ideally.

The trouble with that approach is that you run the risk of missing some material gains in the meantime.

If the Budget is not as bad (for this company and similar) as the market currently anticipates (which as I said before, IMO has already been baked in, more or less), then you could see a rapid move up here.

Not taking aim at your comment, but by that rationale, you should not be buying any stocks now until then.

Which may or may not be a wise decision. To each our own strategy etc. GLA.

JG68: Apparently, it is still on a normalised PE ratio of 21.69. Even after the drop today.

After that update and considering the macro outlook, IMO this one still has further to fall.

Having said that, it could be a good opportunity soon.

Never owned this name, but would like to have it in my p/f - at the right price - with a view to a LTH.

My price might not happen of course, but I am not going to chase it. Lots of attractive names are already appearing to be on sale or close to being on sale, IMO.

Always wise to be cautious in the month of September and October too.

Well, another couple of small buy orders triggered for me.

Still a very underweight position, but will probably sit tight now and see what comes out in the wash.

Plenty of capacity to add if the update merits it. GLA.

I expected another crack at 70p by now.

I also see a cup and handle pattern on the chart (from late July to now)...but I do not have much faith in my TA skills, so feel free to disagree if you think otherwise, because I am probably wrong :)

Anyway, as I said before, I am willing to be patient and give the BOD time to hopefully justify this faith. This decision is primarily based on the inside buying we saw quite recently. But time will tell. GLA.

Thank you, gulfharbour.

I decided to take final profits on the tranches that I retained.

Toss of a coin really, as I would not be surprised to see this one run up to retest the year highs before results, assuming the markets generally hold firm during that period.

And as I said the other day, it is the macro picture, rather than company-specific, which led to this decision.

I hope you all (continue to) do well here. I will be keeping a watch for those results later this month.

No reason to think they will disappoint. It is the forward guidance that will IMO determine the direction of travel thereafter.

Plenty of upside still if both are bullish IMO. GLA.

Yeah, although I think you are being generous with your 'generally useless' description.

Have any demonstrated excellent financial management and zero corruption? Or at least irregularities that give the impression of corruption. No doubt any corruption would be rooted out and dealt with robustly, so I am sure those that have/do are quaking in their boots! Lol.

Anyway, I just hope that Mobico refuses to even bid for any future contracts that do not ensure at least a respectable net profit for the business. Big margins of safety built into the financials.

No point whatsoever otherwise. This lot will not be around for long and if they are....well, even less reason to bind ourselves to a sinking ship.

The politicians just want to have someone to point the finger of blame at, when their hapless policies fail.

Been this way in the UK for decades now. Let us hope the management here do not give the losers any opportunity to make us eat any of the blame to this end.

Yep. Exactly. Part of the bearish macro picture and sentiment IMO.

Not to mention, a lot of people are rushing sales of various assets to lock in cap gains before anticipated hikes in the pipes.

Unfortunately, most of the people that vote for the uniparty (as some might see them) are either stupid, or sufficiently unsuccessful financially, to think that clobbering those who actually own some assets will mean more handouts for them.

How disappointed they will soon be, when they see that this will not come to pass. And that they will not escape (further) poverty.

But time will tell. GLA.

It is the macro picture (which is out of their control) that is making my trigger finger itch towards the sell button.

Which, if I pull it, will be a great contrary indicator, lol.

I stand by my comments here previously, but I am tempted to be honest. Looks like some others are as well.

Sitting tight for now though and will post if I do end up exiting prior to results. GLA.

I have taken a small position recently. On the basis that they should by now have let the market know if they were going to miss those full year targets.

Sub 50p will IMO look quite good if this proves to be reliable information.

Although if we see 55p before then, I will probably take (small) profits and wait for the update before taking another view.

I have actually traded this one a couple of times around the sub 50p level prior to this one, so it is not a maiden stake. Thought I would declare myself now, having been lurking, but not commenting, on this chat board during that time, lol. GLA.

Yes, I see potential value here too, which is why it is on my radar. Perhaps as a trade, perhaps for an investment.

I do think the fire cladding aspect is one concern for the market right now, but the big one is as mentioned previously (ad nauseam).

That could make this a terrific buying opportunity at these levels, if the concerns are overblown.

Sooner or later, we will find out. GLA.

I think that a lot of their cards are given in person, so the stamp price is less of an issue, as far as this name is concerned.

Annoying more generally, for the necessary card posting to various elderly relatives that you have to send in the mail.

Brokers are not going to be a source of valuable information in my experience.

It is like an employee of a company thinking that their employer's HR department has their best interests at heart, rather than realising that they represent the company :)

Anyway, as the SP action continues to demonstrate, it is currently impossible to call a bottom here.

IMO, it looks like one or more II's have been unloading, with the small rises/pauses in decline representing traders and PI's buying.

Then the unloading continues. I have seen this trend play out elsewhere before (and I currently have a small position in one US stock where it 'feels' similar right now as well).

I think they are still trying to secure the best terms they can for some loan agreement or other, but struggling to get something that is not too onerous. This remains a really tough credit environment.

I agree they are likely wanting to avoid a share placement, which at this price would be undesirable.

If they do go down this route and it gets announced shortly, this would look like forward selling, to some cynical minds.

To be clear, I have no opinion on that.

What continues to puzzle me a bit, is the lack of declared short interest here. After that update, were I a shorter, I would have absolutely opened a short here. Seemed a no brainer.

That also makes me think that shorts are too nervous to enter this one. Which could bode well for current holders.

See what Monday brings. Good weekend all.

Nope. I said a few weeks ago that a bid (from anyone) was not part of my long thesis here.