Member Info for Lutra

ColnePoint, I also wonder how long they can restrict the best tariffs to "dual-fuel" customers? Frustrates the hell out of me that I can see several Gigawatts of renewable electricity generation from my kitchen window, but pay more for my electricity because the gas grid doesn't come anywhere near me!

Yes, but if the main seller has been Ruffer and they are now down to zero, subsequent purchases might be increasingly hard to find.

The RNS announcing the purchase of Osprey was 25th August last year. They've not had a year of running that subsidiary yet, so it's a bit early to say whether the TPG management is on track to extract value from the purchase.

Boffin, thanks for that and the link. I'm happy to play the long-term game and leave the short-term concerns to the traders.

I like your analogy but I'd also liken my stance being climate, where the traders are weather!

Mainmane, your guess is as good as mine! But I suppose the argument would be that each purchase and its price is still governed by supply and demand, its only the information about the purchase which is delayed. If a market maker is having difficulty getting enough shares to meet the purchaser's requirements, then the price will still rise until supply meets demand.

Poole, I'm no more familiar with SAG than yourself, but it does look as if the figures that they cite are cherry-picked and perhaps not on a like-for-like basis.

I don't know the take-over rules, but hopefully having declared that they are withdrawing their offer and issuing a de-ramping RNS, they are barred from buying more shares at the inevitably reduced post-speculation share price?

"Would they go hostile?" They already sound pretty hostile to me!

"People buy lots, shares go up, people sell lots shares go down. That seems much more like manipulation than anything else"

...sounds more like supply and demand to me!

Quite so. What SAG fail to understand is that, while they may be offering a rosy future for the staff of TPG, they are offering very little to the owners of the company. It is clear, though, that SAG believe that they will get a return on their purchases at 6.5p, and happy to retain their stake at that price, so why would we want to agree to a cash offer? For my part, my average TPG purchase cost happens to be 6.5p, so if the deal had gone through at that price, I would have broken even. I still value the group at 9p, so hope that the offer continues to be rejected.

The official closing price for a London listed stock, is the price quoted by the London Stock Exchange at its 4.30pm close. All manner of overnight events might result in other prices being quoted by other parties, but the official closing price doesn't change until the morning auction results in the Opening price the following day, which may be different from the previous day's close. I would expect this site to use the official LSE closing price for its data, otherwise they would just be picking a random price quote, be it from Google, Tradegate etc.

You have to look at the date on the chart. That 61.1 on the historical chart is dated 18th August. The London Stock Exchange is showing a bid/offer close of 59.5/61.5, which broadly accords with the price further up this page, so I'm not sure where you are getting your 62p figure from.

But is this not a case where the strategy will actually be formally launched by Kwasi Kwarteng later today, with speeches and press attention at a suitably photogenic venue? Could he be in Sheffield...?

Yes, my estimate of the real value of the company is in the 9p area - and I suspect that SAG's estimate won't be far off that. They'll keep building their stake, though, and my fear is that the ii's will take the quick buck and leave us all shafted.

Yes, lots of Press Releases, but no actual link to the document! Is it actually released yet, or is that happening later today?

Yes, but the statement reads like hostile PR from a hostile bidder, and with bedside manner like that, I'm not sure I would be talking to them! They are the bidders and it is up to them to make the running.

Schrodinger, I think we agree! Hopefully, no way at 6p. My 9p would be a 50% gain on that but your expectations may be higher than mine!

But the SAG deal looks very similar to the PC plan to me. SAG can't afford the whole group without funding, and the maritime business doesn't match. If TPG had sold maritime and declared a one-off dividend with the proceeds, then the remainder would have been a perfect match both for SAG's business interests and their available cash. Instead, SAG could get the maritime bidder on-board to fund the maritime portion of the take-over and end up in the exact same position.

Schrodinger, I think that most investors who are underwater pray for anything that can lift them back into a decent profit! If that comes by way of a take-over by a similar (but a bit bigger) UK company, then that's Ok by me. As I say, my target is the equivalent or better than 9p/share, which is what I calculate the "fair" value to be. If that came as a cash offer, I would consider buying some SAG shares, because I still believe there is further mileage in the sector. If it was by way of a share offer, then it would save me some dealing costs.

Yes, but they don't have sufficient cash themselves for a straight cash offer. So they either need to raise finance or make a share/swap offer to TPG shareholders.

...and there is always the chance that other bidders might join the party!

I wonder who the major sellers were who provided that 10% stake to be bought yesterday? There have been a lot of reasonably-sized, round-figure sales over the last week, which looked like someone was off-loading and presumably the brokers were using these to build the stake for the one-off sale to SAG.

Certainly some interesting synergies between the two Groups and SAG appear to have a track record in turn-around and extracting value. But I'd still want any offer to be in the region of 1 SAG share for 50 TPG, as the back of my (rose-tinted) envelope still gives me a value of 9p/share for the component parts of TPG.

At the very least, though, I can't see SAG entering in to this if they didn't think that there is value in TPG and an opportunity to exert influence on the management of TPG to ensure that the latent value is realised.