Member Info for Lupidog

£18.36m per annum just from stage 1 (PEPR/Funding/exchange rate dependent).

Numbers and details in RNS Number: 2908U Strategic Minerals PLC 22 November 2019

Please feel free to do your own calculations and correct me if necessary.

Thank you Prop.

"with revenue commencing in the last quarter of 2021."
DVH and what an income that looks likely to be (what would an mcap be with this plus Cobre income?):

300 tonnes of saleable copper @ $10k/t = $3m pcm
Operating costs of $2.8k/t = $840k pcm
Income post costs/pre tax $2.16m pcm
£18.36m per annum just from stage 1. (unless someone calculates differently?)

"Lupi, who was for a long time a big critic of the BoD, but having bought in a few months ago, is now the biggest defender of them and seems to be inferring its long term investors that have got it wrong."
I am not defending anyone. I am simply trying to get the rhetoric to be more positive about the share. The negativity damages mine and everyone else's investment. There seems to be little focus on the massive positive upside if/when the PEPR is approved and plenty of negative focus on the past which none of us can change. As for inferring about long term holders, I'll leave that in your capable hands, as I inferred nothing. I just made an observation.

It is difficult accepting the loss on an investment and that is a substantial sum for anyone to be in a paper loss. Those continually complaining (yes, I had my moments) if invested, are hurting their own investments by the continual running down of the company’s leadership. If people have complaints, it is fair to voice them on a forum dedicated to the company. To do so continually for 18 months (not necessarily aimed at yourself) obviously does not fix what you think may be wrong. These issues should be addressed directly to those who lead the company that you are a joint owner of. I hear DVH when he says that he has not received replies to some emails, but that should not stop anyone from sending them or even registered snail mail to voice their concerns. People do read this. People have human emotions and human responses and it is not good to see this day in and day out. I think we all get that many are disgruntled and financially hurt by the expectations based on some of the communications. Communication is the key to resolving differences, it is the glue that binds. Part of that responsibility lies with the BoD and part lies with the individual investor, as it is a two-way process. I hope SML comes good and that you recoup your losses and make a return worth the emotional impact of the past 18 months.

I should have added "continual and sustained".

I am sure the BoD don't see the sense of humor. Public character assassination is rarely amusing to the recipients.

And with it? What do we become? The income from Stage 1 alone makes us a £50m plus company.
This is not a game to be played within opinions of the internet. We are a legal company operating within legal boundaries and dealing with government bodies in an affluent and safe country. We are applying for a PEPR though a government body.
Mistakes have been made in the past which can be put down to mismanagement through lack of experience, bad luck and bad timing, just as much as some excellent choices and forward planning have also been made with regards to foreseeing supply and demand of commodities. We all learn by experience every single day be it good or bad. There is a lack of confidence in the company shown by some on this forum which has gone past the complaint of lack of shareholder value and has turned into an obsessive chronic disorder to the point of stalking. This is just business and not personal even if there appears to be a lack of connect between saying “shareholder value” and achieving “shareholder value” and also a lack of willingness to publicly accept when mistakes are made, while taking curtain calls over any small success. We all “win some and lose some” and again a loss on paper is only converted to a financial loss if the shares are sold in that loss. I have bitten the bullet a few times on AIM and moved on.
I have invested (speculated) in the belief that if there was no chance of the PEPR being awarded, the SA, Energy and Mining would have shut this down a long time ago. Is the company not legally obliged to report news which will financially affect the mcap? The Bod have done an excellent job prediction the demand and price of certain commodities (think of the income difference lost if we had been selling the copper 18 months ago). I have confidence in their previous experience (anyone is only ever as good as their last job) and expect that to eventually shine through here in SML.
On paper this is currently looking really rather interesting.

RNS Number: 2908U
Strategic Minerals PLC
22 November 2019
“Stage 1: Restarting the existing plant at Mountain of Light processing plant and debottlenecking the plant to produce a sustainable monthly production of up to 300 tonnes of saleable copper (contained in circa 500 tonnes of copper cement) with a minimum grade of 70% Cu.”

300 tonnes of saleable copper @ $10k/t = $3m pcm

Operating costs of $2.8k/t = $840k pcm

Income post costs/pre tax $2.16m pcm

We have an mcap of $10m and expect an increase of $2.16m/usd a month (£1.53m) post costs into our coffers.

£18.36m per annum just from stage 1.

What does that do to the mcap, because this is the news we are expecting very shortly based on RNS releases and the Market is not responding. That is 2x macp increase in annual income just for the first stage of LCCM. That should give use 4x to 5x the mcap. How on earth is the Market missing this?

You have 25% to 30% risk versus 100% plus reward for LCCM alone? Even that is a good speculative punt on AIM.

We either get the PEPR, or we won't. I am of the opinion that we will, as a lot of time money and effort has taken us to this point. Working on "we will", does the way forward with a funding plan come with the PEPR announcement (I am still hoping for "free shares via listing"), unless a more beneficial way is forth coming? Where does this take us? The Market is still not responding in a way which shows any confidence that we will get the PEPR. I expected a gradual increase in mcap to reflect the forthcoming announcement as speculators do what they do and speculate. The potential returns are as good as any you can expect on AIM. Everything is well publicised, the operating costs, the price of copper, the NVP. Everyone with a calculator can calculate the return / lb at $4.5. Yet we 'languish' at an mcap well below that when we purchased LCCM. Giving us no real downside should we fail to realise the venture. So, what am I missing? What is the Market missing? As one of us is missing something.

Not really good business form to ignore communications from shareholders, given the amount you have invested in here. A simple response costs nothing but time and creates multiples in good will, even if it is just to say "I can't comment on this just now" or a reply from someone else within the company. To simply ignore you speaks volumes in itself and none of it is good.

The approval is reliant on the SA, Energy and Mining confirming the adequacy of our submission. They are approachable and I am sure they will confirm this with you as they have confirmed it with me. We will have to wait and see if the ducks are all lined up. I am also sure that there is a flow of communication between SA, Mining and Energy and SML. AB is an industry expert and must be in constant contact to make sure we respond correctly. JP is a financial wizard and will have found the best way forward to production, to release those millions from the ground. PW is polishing his silver tongue for the G7, to promote the tin/tungsten out of Redmoor. Who knows, if you venture to Cornwall you may even see our BoD? So, all in all SML is in the best possible place to make the most of this perfect storm of the rampant commodity prices/scarcity/green revolution/G7. This is the month when which we will all look back to and remind ourselves that we did or should have taken advantage of the current SP. For never shall we see the like again. Hindsight is only hindsight when it is hindsight.

This week? This Quarter? That is currently in the capable hands of SA, Energy and Mining. Copper heading the right way again makes for an exciting month. I would fully expect the SP to slowly rise into the month on expectation of a substantial increase in company value when the PEPR is approved. The figures at $10k put our value in a very nice place. The mcap will have to reflect this and a substantial re-rate on PEPR and way forward is due. Not an opinion, just simply based on the numbers. Copper is not valued on an opinion.

back over $10k again. Going the right way again. Leading us nicely into a beautiful spring bank holiday.

The last trading day of the month and then we move into the final month of Q2. The calculations based on given information cannot be denied. The probability is as higher than we have ever seen to come good. The realisation of the inherent value locked in LCCM is not accounted for in the mcap. Anyone with a simple grasp of mathematics can work out the NPV. This part should not come into question by anyone who believes in fact over opinion.
The kicker is the PEPR and then the necessary means to fund the production. As the PEPR is sitting being assessed by SA, Energy and Mining for adequacy. This is no longer in the companies’ hands unless there is a request for yet further information. SA, Energy and mining have no reason to delay or drag out their assessment. As a government body, they will do it in their own time frame.
Now on to the opinions. Everyone can post their opinions and be as polarised as they wish within the bounds of the posting rules. Opinions can deny facts but not cancel them.
My opinion is that since I started trading this share back in very early 2016. I have made money and lost money. This has not been so much of a rollercoaster as a pump and them slow decline to below audited asset value. The mcap is much lower than when we purchased LCCM. We are undervalued by asset alone.
(The big “if”.) IF we get the PEPR and a means to produce at LCCM there is a massive rerate due to represent the sudden added value of LCCM. This will come in at least two stages. The PEPR itself and the means to move forward to production (this could be one or two stages depending on timing of both). Then production itself and a production rate which may well increase over time.
Is the above ramp or de-ramp? Or is it simply a personal assessment/summary of all of the information available in the public domain on LCCM?

I would like to think it will mainly hold as we will be in a time of LCCM news flow. Once we get the PEPR we have a lot to do in a short time and news aplenty.

The breakout will be roughly 3x to 4x IMO. We will have opened the door some serious value.

It wasn't me, but sometimes people just need to release funds. The Market removes £1m from the companies mcap on £22k worth of trades. Maybe they just want shares. How many can you sell?

Now sitting at $4.50 / $9868 down $900 from 2 weeks ago. You have to be in the game to take advantage. Still an excellent uplift on $3.00 from Nov last year. Which way is it going to go?

A well written article (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4430814-strategic-minerals-is-reaching-an-inflection-point), thank you Dave. I do believe that the author is being overly conservative. But a lot of validity to value in that article.