Member Info for Lupidog

US$500k a month is only £5m, over the 12 month period. Add £5m to our mcap? This would possibly take us to the high 0.5's. This is also providing that we do not "splash the cash". I would love to say we will have positive sentiment and this should push us much higher. But this has been lacking for years and not even the diet PEPR (which confirmed LCCM as a tangible asset IMO) cause nothing more than a momentary blip and now we languish yet again at £6m mcap, or more painfully sub 0.3p mid point. We appear to stuck with an mcap based on Cobre income and market assessment of our assets. I thought we would see a good increase on the diet PEPR and I was wrong. What sort of response do we get from the BoD to this current valuation? We get a Chairman talking spin and billions while not purchasing a single share on the open Market. At least JP puts our money where his mouth is.

Yes and no. What would 500k a month add to the mcap, before we look at any outstanding debt liability (even if payments were being made). Remembering that the 500k is only for 12 months unless the expected sulphide is found and permissions received to recover it. Which is why we need a JV IMO to mitigate the risk.

Are you calcs based on cement price or the copper live price? You then deduct 50%. Is the 50% the finance payments or JV share? Or is the 50% all costs and taxes? 50% deduction for all costs, taxes and JV share or finance seems a tad conservative. IMO If you were to get cement sales at 80% of copper live, then you may be in a better ballpark. Then Costs, taxes and loan/JV share costs at 75% and we may be getting towards a better ballpark of where we will be. Which is why we are having this discussion. To stay invested we need to understand the reality of where the company is. Not the spin we are getting. Please refute my calcs based on best known figures. That way we all learn and win.

Well I was hoping someone would constructively reply and refute my EBITDA calc of $46m down from the Dec RNS value of $68m. I am hoping I am wrong, I want to be wrong. So engage with me and calculate it for yourself and tell me what you think our mcap will be with the new figures and a JV or finance partner taking 50%?
We will not get paid on the outlook. We will get paid on the current and the current is not good if we have to borrow so much.

and the USD - AUD exchange rate is currently 0.67.

Anyone else care to do the math? What is the new EBITDA, reflecting a US$3-27 lb copper price and an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.6700?

Some of you may notice that the Copper price is still falling. Some of you argue correctly that it is global market forces that dictate/manipulate the price. It may well continue to fall or rise once again. Some of you say that it will recover and move to new heights.
The reality is (as far as we are aware): It is still falling currently. We are trying to negotiate a JV/finance at the current collapsing copper price, not the future possible price. If we ever get to produce the Oxide (we are told that we will do so as soon as finance is arranged), then that means we sell/share the profit at the Copper price on the day and not the Copper price in the future. We and any financier/JV partner are relying on the Oxide to cover us for just 12 months. While we find/reach the "expected" sulphide.
Just a quick reminder:
“Negotiations have been based on the Company's internal forecasts of the Project's expected EBITDA of US$68m, reflecting a US$4-25 lb copper price and an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.7500”
And another reality check: Copper is now $US3-27 lb and falling.

So, here's hoping for a JV to share the risk.

IMO The Market has once again shown its lack of confidence. The Market has to gain confidence to improve the sentiment and create growth in mcap. We have a PEPR for Oxide. We have a history of failing to produce when we had both permission and finance. So now we have to get finance and prove we can produce. Finance that will tie us to finding Sulphide so that we can repay it. Already we are planning to use or gift any profitable return from the possible Oxide production by funding to finance another unknown.
We have even been told that the Sulphide is an unknown and yet we will borrow millions we do not need to look for it, when we could simply fund it from the production of the Oxide.
There is a reason that we have seen little uptick even after making LCCM a workable asset. Why is that?
We have already been told the reason via RNS:
How many "expected" can you fit into one paragraph?
"a new "cloned" PEPR will be submitted for the mining of the transitional copper sulphide material expected to be encountered towards the bottom end of the Paltridge North open pit. It is not expected that the clearance of this PEPR will hold up current expected mining arrangements as it not expected that the transitional material will be encountered for at least a year. This material represents approximately one third of expected copper sales from Paltridge North."
So the funding we seek for Sulphide production may be the last nail in the coffin if any of the “expected” do not happen to allow us to repay it.

"what RichyP is telling us will be factually correct" It is clear this is not the case. There may be some fact, but it is interspersed among opinion and falsehoods.

It would have been nice to get some balanced feedback.

Over borrowing will basically confirm that the strategy is life style, to be dragged out as long as possible and not business
for shareholder value driven IMO.

You get fair terms from a position of strength. Unless they have changed the finance required, we are in a position of weakness. To be able to fund from this position we have to offer excellent terms which will see our return diminished. Borrow just enough to produce the Oxide and there will be no need to borrow any more as the production will fund everything else. Borrow any more and I fear that we will not be the ones to see the profit.

When statements are made that are factually incorrect. That is certainly opinion. When it is not made clear that it is opinion, it is misleading. When non abusive posts are removed for highlighting this, that shows that there is intent to mislead.

But he is allowed to mislead, unintentionally or otherwise.

The "trolls" used to go to AGM's. You may have to ask them individually why they stopped going? Was it the inconsistencies in what they were told versus reality? Is it the lack of culpability? Is it rewarding failure with our money? Is it the total destruction of peoples investments? I don't know, I will let them answer for themselves.

"The board and Charles have been super supportive buying when they can"
I may have to ask as to whom "The board" pertains? As we all have a clear view of share purchases by "the board" .
JP has purchased shares at market value.
PW purchase from a discounted placing once in the last 19 months.
AB took salary shares and warrants 19 months ago.

No. Unless we wish to redefine "produce".

Been hearing that for too many years. Now lets get this placing out of the way.

Last piece will not be funding. They need to prove they can produce this time, after failing so badly and causing this mess last time.

and falling Copper price due to global recession fears? China's attempt to collapse commodity prices or the general fear of LCCM flooding the Market with Oxide?