RE: About Invesco19 Feb 2020 07:48
Selling securities before they matured is a guaranteed method of losing money.
There are numerous reasons why people sell their positions. In Woodford's case he pretty much had to sell everything that was liquid, regardless of maturity. A substantial portion of his portfolio was illiquid -- which is what landed him in trouble with the regulator.
BUR had a very nice run, even though it received a haircut once MW discovered the leadership with "their hand in the cookie jar."
It all comes down to a few simple things.
A) do we need to adjust our estimates of intrinsic value and does this adjustment still make it an attractive proposition (I answered that with yes)
B) Is the company's business model broken? (I answered that with no).
Although difficult to understand and predict, the court sheets don't lie and BUR has shown some rather amazing performance. Their challenge is how to account for their business activities so it gives a fair view on their intrinsic value. Which is where MW attached them and managed to stir huge sentiments against their operations.
If I am right, then this is a nice opportunity to buy into a rather phenomenal business at a discount. Over time this will lead to market beating results.
If I am wrong than I may lose my money, but that's a bit difficult to see since the security trades near NAV.
I would have never bought into BUR at previous (lofty) valuations. But at these levels it's certainly worth a wager.