The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Agreed, Chris Witty also talking about the second wave in winter potentially being worse and will be crucial to distinguish between seasonal flu and covid for quarantine purposes. I personally expect sales to continue for at least 12 months. Countries are already being criticised for not having adequate testing in place, hopefully lessons will have been learnt.
My interpretation is the same as Nova, that the wording states that it is only what PD have sold, and I was expecting the US sales revenue to be additional. Given that they were going to update us on the US OEM and haven't specifically as yet, I took that to mean this revenue wasn't included.
The US info is therefore extremely important in understanding the true value of the company
VanV completely agree with that assessment.
Was up late for the GGP news, checked in here and wondered what had happened after I saw all of the negative posts!
They have just worked out the logistics of delivering the home based element of the trial that had already been planned from the outset. They obviously needed to ensure they were able to validate eligibility and put in place monitoring to make sure results will be robust.
All positive in my opinion and nothing materially new to what has already been communicated.
Great to have you here from all of your work over at NCYT
'The current trial allows patients to start treatment as out patients, however we had no workable method to confirm virus positivity or to start patients on their study medication without asking the patient to visit a clinic.'
I seem to be missing the negative interpretation of this expansion.
My understanding is the original trial design included patients in at risk groups who had not been hospitalised, which is what is now being rolled out. There was a requirement that candidates must have tested positive, and my reading of the NHS update is just a logistical solution as to how this will work in practice. Ensuring candidates are tested and then how they are monitored and assessed against the scale once taking the drug or placebo is crucial in ensuring the validity of these results and would have taken time to ensure the details were robust.
I would imagine from previous trial observations (and logic) that the earlier the drug is given the more likely it is to be effective.
The fact the home based element was included at the outset tells me this isnt a knee jerk reaction to a failing trial. The home based element must also have significant cost and time factors (the video calling of each patient, monitoring outside of hospital environment) so can't imagine it is being rolled out as a last ditch attempt.
I would also assume that there would be a wider market for home based treatments so from a commercial perspective it makes sense to pursue this route and to cover both routes under the trial.
All imo and happy to be corrected if I have missed a crucial point here?
Dominic Raab committed to funding for any vaccine for the next 5 years to help poorer countries.
Lots of talk of Germany maybe needing a second lockdown and testing being at the forefront of plans going forward. Unfortunately this isnt going anywhere anytime soon and these tests are going to be needed for a while....
Absolutely, and not all of the staff that have lost their lives will receive it. Quite a few have been locum doctors/nurses or had returned to the NHS to help with the pandemic. At the moment the payout is only available to 'employees'
Great work VanV, great exposure.
My thoughts for what they are worth is that the RNS was a turning point for the company. It is safe to say some potential investors have had concerns about the market becoming crowded and longevity. The RNS and news today dealt with both.
The 6 month order proved that testing will be required beyond the short term and Chris Witty today talked about 'first wave' and noy going anywhere anytime soon. He also stated testing will be crucial as lockdown is lifted as part of track and trace.
Secondly of all the larger companies and tests in the market pur test has been selected to fulfill the majority of the UK's daily testing target, a ringing endorsement for the gold standard test.
It is also anticipated that this week news on the modified version will alay any doubters that 'faster tests will come along' or that lack of reagents will hamper manufacturing capacity.
Additionally the current sales will generate profits many multiples of their previous years' turnover. Whether some is distributed as a special dividend or not, there will be plenty to expand the company beyond where it was previously.
This rollercoaster of a ride has certainly taught me not to underestimate the company, they always seem to pull a rabbit out of a hat and is a larger one every time!
With so much news still to come, WHO orders, details of the US OEM as well as other partnerships, the list goes on!
I originally haf a target of £5.70 but genuinely feel based on the ongoing potential here this journey is far from over!
GLA
It has been incredibly steady this afternoon considering the news. Large delayed buys after close?
With so much news wonder whether we will get it all in one RNS or drip fed throughout the week....
I agree, I had my last top up this week at 354.
What I would say is that since I have been in from mid Feb there has been a lot of volatility (understatement!).
There have been times where I was 50% down and whilst it made me very uneasy I was confident enough about my own research not to panic sell and ultimately lose money. Those shares are now 100% up.
I would say there is a good chance we will see more volatility this week, and will be dependant on the arrival of the RNS and its contents (for the record I expect them to be good!).
So I would make sure you do your research and be comfortable in your own mind.
GLA
Having just re-read the RNS from 28th February it states:
'The Company also announces that it has signed an OEM agreement with a US healthcare group for the manufacture and sale of its RUO coronavirus tests.'
Interstingly this was on 28th Feb and TF then went on to get EUA on 13th March, approved that same day of application. 2 weeks would be a reasonable timeframe to prepare the documentation and sumbit for approval?
The key part of this phrase which I hadnt fully appreciated is that the OEM is manufacturing the kit branded as its own. So the manufacturing figures of 4-8million and the associated valuations do not include these figures.
They will obviously only be a percentage, but depending on the amount of tests they have sold since the agreement now 2 months ago, these could be significant, especially if it is indeed TF...
Thank you who have contributed research to this thread, which adds a while new dimension and potential value to the share.
My position now is that the sales figures are likely to be good, we know they are making them and upping production so safe to say we are selling them!
The details of the OEM are now much more important. FDA EUA was what six weeks ago now and the OEM agreed before that? Can we assume these figures havent yet been disclosed given we havent had any news re the OEM? So we could have significant £££'s to add on, and if it was TP they got the approval weeks before us so would have been a big player in the US market for a few months.
If this is the case, depending on the percentage and tests they are selling, at what point could it become commercially efficient for them to instead take us over?