Member Info for LuckyLaurie

Interesting price action…

Helikon added size around ~60p and we’re now pushing 97p. That’s a decent move against part of the book.

They’ve already reduced once, wouldn’t be surprised if some of that weaker short has been taken out already.

margin calls… we’re definitely getting closer to that conversation ☎️📈

Watch The Squeeze 💩😱

Great summary Mariusz, really helpful to see it all laid out like that 👍

When you step back and look at it in the round, what stands out is the scale and geographic spread now building simultaneously:

• €420m Chile programme already moving into delivery stages

• $5m Indonesia production line fully partner-funded

• €1.75m Senegal JV now in implementation

• €114m Albania/Kosovo production pipeline developing

• $65m Sudan project funding two additional production lines

That’s not a single-project story anymore, it’s clearly evolving into a multi-region rollout model with local production hubs.

Also worth noting how much of this is partner-funded or deposit-backed, which is exactly how you would expect a capital-light global expansion strategy to be structured.

The really interesting part is that several of these projects are now moving beyond agreements and into implementation / mobilisation, which is typically where things start to become more visible to the market.

For a company still sitting around a ~£16–17m market cap, the scale of what’s being assembled here across multiple regions is pretty striking.

Feels like the pieces of a much bigger picture are steadily being put in place.

News very soon ⬆️📈

Interesting work Eastwood 👍 although from FCA disclosures Helikon Investments Limited only first crossed 0.5% around Oct 2022 (~0.51%), so that’s really the earliest reliable starting point. Anything prior isn’t visible, so averages based on earlier data can get quite skewed.

I actually tracked the build from that point using % changes and estimated fills around the trading ranges at the time. Not exact of course — intraday spreads and execution will always move things slightly — but it gives a reasonable directional view.

From that, most of the position appears to have been built in the ~70p–£1 range, with a known meaningful increase around ~60p. Even allowing for a fairly wide margin of error (say 15–20%), it’s difficult to see how you arrive at an average anywhere near £1.79.

Not saying my numbers are perfect, but directionally they’re in the ballpark and probably closer to the actual build profile.

The Pressure Is On - ☎️ Margin Calls - They Have A Big Issue

😂😂 Fair play 👍 nothing wrong with de-risking. I just tend to focus on what’s changing, shorts reducing, price strength building, and contracts gaining traction.

That setup often signals the beginning of a move rather than the end… so interesting timing.

95p to buy ….. We’re In The FUN Zone ⬆️📈🚀

Helikon Short Position – Some Context not exact (From Previous Workings)

Some may remember I tracked Helikon Investments Limited short position step-by-step through 2022–2024.

Not an exact science (placings, changing share count etc.), but it gives a much clearer picture than just today’s %.

Key points:

   •   Built from ~0.5% → ~3.3%

   •   Majority shorted between ~70p – £1.00+

   •   Additional size added later around ~60p

   •   Partial reduction late 2023, then increased again

Important:

Because ITM Power issued new shares, a “flat %” doesn’t mean a flat position — often it means active management to maintain exposure.

⸻

📊 Estimated Average Short Price

➡️ Low end: ~75p

➡️ High end: ~90p

➡️ Midpoint: ~80–85p

(Not exact, but a fair working range)

⸻

📉 Where we are now

At ~90p:

   •   Lower entries → around breakeven

   •   Mid-range → modestly underwater

   •   Later adds (~60p) → clearly underwater

And now:

➡️ 2.91% → 2.63% (-0.30%)

So they’ve already started reducing (~2m shares covered).

⸻

⚖️ Balanced view

   •   Not panic covering

   •   Funds manage risk over time

BUT:

   •   Still a large position (~18m shares)

   •   Some of the book under pressure

   •   And importantly… they’ve started to move

⸻

🎯 Bottom line

Not perfect, but directionally clear:

👉 This isn’t a perfect short

👉 It’s a mixed book

👉 And early signs of unwinding are appearing

If momentum builds, this could get interesting… 📈

A bit of perspective on the funding debate

Having read through the Geomet accounts and the various posts this morning, the reality (as usual) sits somewhere in the middle.

• Deloitte signed off the accounts as a going concern

• Both shareholders have confirmed their ability and intention to fund

• €13m pre-FID funding is being progressed from existing partners

• Significant capital has already been invested into the project

• Substantial grants remain in place and still to be drawn

That doesn’t point to a company in trouble.

At the same time, it’s also worth being realistic:

• This is a pre-revenue mining project, so ongoing funding is normal

• Future financing will form part of the path to full project build-out

• That could come from a mix of sources (as is standard in this sector)

The “economic dependence” point being highlighted is simply how projects of this nature operate before production.

The more interesting takeaway for me is that both CEZ and EMH continue to support and fund the project, and the relatively modest size of the current €13m requirement suggests this is routine pre-FID progression rather than anything more concerning.

Feels like a lot of noise around something that is actually fairly standard for where the project is in its lifecycle.

As always, the real value inflection will come from the bigger milestones rather than interpreting individual accounting lines. 🥳 💵

Thanks Rpks another excellent find and very reassuring 👍

A few key positives from the auditor note that shouldn’t be overlooked:

• Shareholders confirmed ability to fund Geomet removing any funding uncertainty

• Both partners still fully aligned CEZ 51% and EMH 49%

• €13m pre-FID funding underway clear sign project advancing toward FID

• CZK 800m (~€32m) JTF grant confirmed for 2026 to 2028 drawdown

• CZK 8.48bn (~€340m) additional subsidy allocated significant state support

• Grants not yet accounted for meaning future balance sheet strength still to come

• Auditors signed off going concern no financial stress at JV level

• Funding being progressed for the pre-FID period shows continued momentum

This reads like a project steadily moving through pre-FID toward financing and construction.

Thanks again Rpks great research as always.

81.75p to Buy 🫢⬆️📈🚀😭

A great sustainable rise this time, just hang onto those 💧 tickets they’re looking golden ⬆️📈 🚀

The feeding frenzy has just started and the margin calls are beginning to hurt 😭 🩳

Just hit 78p ….. She’s going to blow 💥

77.50p on the buy 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

• DFS completed

• EIA submitted (approval expected May / June 2026)

• Czech Government backing

• ČEZ JV partner (51%)

• EU strategic project alignment (CRMA)

• Up to €360m government funding identified

• EU considering €50Bn critical minerals reserve

• Central European location near battery plants

• Hyundai manufacturing in Czech Republic

• Mercedes expanding EV footprint in region

• Strong EU lithium demand growth

• One of Europe’s largest lithium deposits

• 28+ year mine life (DFS)

• Large resource with expansion potential ~100 Years

• Battery-grade lithium carbonate production

• Lithium + tungsten by-product upside

• Brownfield mining area (lower permitting risk)

• Existing infrastructure at processing site

• Rail transport planned from mine to plant

• Government utility partner reduces funding risk

• Potential OEM offtake interest

• EU prioritising domestic lithium supply

• Close to European gigafactories

• Project moving toward financing stage

Timing Is Everything In Life …..

ITM Power - Right Place - Right Time - Right Now!

The Future Is Bright - The Future Is -💧 ITM 💧

Next week will be interesting 🥳🥳 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Mixed feelings on this RNS, strategically excellent, but 55.56p feels cheap!

Let’s be honest , issuing ~10% of the company at 55.56p (13.7% discount) isn’t exactly generous to existing shareholders.

On price alone, it’s not a great deal.

But step back and look at the full package:

• £40m strategic investment from Great British Energy

• £46.5m non-dilutive grant from DESNZ (subject to June approval)

• UK Government effectively validating Chronos after third-party due diligence

• Funding for 1GW automated manufacturing line

• FY26 cash guidance lifted to £210–£215m

• Stronger UK positioning ahead of HAR3 and domestic projects

This is not just a placing, it’s government-backed industrial scaling.

The UK Government doesn’t take a 10% stake in companies it doesn’t think will matter.

Yes, 55.56p feels cheap.

But in return ITM gets:

   •   credibility with customers

   •   credibility with financiers

   •   credibility with policymakers

   •   accelerated Chronos rollout

   •   scale manufacturing funded largely by government

That’s a powerful combination.

Also worth noting:

GBE is locked in for 12 months, this isn’t fast money flipping stock.

So my take:

Bad price. Excellent strategic deal.

Short-term dilution, long-term acceleration.

If Chronos delivers on lower cost + higher efficiency, this announcement will look very smart in hindsight.

And having the UK Government as a strategic shareholder… that’s a serious vote of confidence.

Exciting Times Ahead 🥳 🥂🍾🥂

Good discussion and fair points LukasK.

Just to clarify one key thing, there’s no contradiction between EMH confirming the EIA was submitted in December and it not yet appearing in CENIA.

Submission and publication are two different stages.

After submission, the Ministry carries out a completeness review, may request additional information, and only then formally registers it in the system. That’s when it becomes public and the formal timeline starts.

For a project of this scale, with multiple components and potentially now being assessed as a unified submission, it’s not unusual for this stage to take some time.

In fact, if the project has been refined or combined into a single EIA, it makes sense to finalise that properly before publication rather than submitting revisions later.

The key point for me is this:

• EIA has been submitted ✔️

• Government and regional bodies actively involved ✔️

• Project still progressing across multiple fronts ✔️

So this looks far more like process and refinement than any kind of problem.

Timing is always something to watch, but nothing here suggests the project isn’t moving forward.

If anything, the level of coordination being discussed points to a project being worked through properly, not one that’s stalled.

Fair and balanced post LukasK, appreciate the insight.

I don’t think anyone serious doubts the project, it’s clearly now about timing and process, particularly the EIA.

And even your own view is key here:

👉 Approval expected, likely with conditions

That’s exactly how projects of this scale usually progress.

Yes, there may be administrative delays or pressure around timelines, but this is a CRMA Strategic Project, backed by ČEZ and the Czech Government, with funding already linked.

That doesn’t just get left to drift.

More importantly, look at what’s actually happening:

• Hiring underway for both the mine and processing plant

• Preparation for construction and operation clearly in motion

You don’t move into execution-stage hiring unless the project is expected to proceed.

So for me, this remains a question of when, not if.

As for Skelly…

If posting nonsense moved projects forward, we’d be in production already. 🥳 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Some fair questions being raised, but it’s important to separate process noise from actual project risk and try not to sound like that idiot from the past ‘Earache’

On the EIA point:

Large-scale EIAs don’t just appear in the system overnight. There is a validation and completeness review phase first, especially for a project of this size. Thousands of pages, multiple studies, cross-department input.

So “not yet in CENIA” doesn’t mean stalled, it usually means still being processed before formal registration.

Also worth remembering:

• Cínovec is a CRMA Strategic Project

• Backed by ČEZ (state-controlled)

• Linked to government and EU funding timelines

Projects like this don’t just sit idle because of internal reshuffles. At worst, you get administrative timing slippage, not a fundamental issue.

On the political unrest:

The protests in Prague are domestic political demonstrations, not related to lithium or mining.

The Czech Republic remains a stable EU jurisdiction, and strategic resource projects like this transcend short-term political cycles, especially with ČEZ involved.

Most importantly, look at what is actually happening:

• EIA submitted ✔️

• Strategic designation secured ✔️

• Government alignment ✔️

• Hiring underway for both the mine and processing plant ✔️

You don’t move into execution-stage hiring across the full project if things are “stalled”.

Short-term noise is normal on projects of this scale.

But the underlying direction here hasn’t changed.

You don’t designate it strategic, fund it, partner it with ČEZ and then let it fall over because of admin delays.

Geomet (ČEZ) are now hiring senior managers for BOTH sides of Cínovec:

👉 Lithium Chemical Plant (Head Metallurgy)

👉 Underground Mining (Preparation & Operations)

These are 10+ year experience, execution roles, not early stage hires.

Plant role includes:

• Permitting support

• Engineering and contractor coordination

• Moving into construction, commissioning and operation

Mining role includes:

• Permitting for underground extraction

• Mine design, infrastructure and budgets

• Moving into development, construction and operations

Both roles clearly include:

Build phase

Commissioning

Full operations

This isn’t exploration

This isn’t theory

This is full project execution

Both adverts even reference:

“Launch of a completely new project”

So while some debate articles and hypotheticals…

The reality is:

• Mine being prepared ✔️

• Processing plant being prepared ✔️

• Permitting in motion ✔️

• Contractors and suppliers being lined up ✔️

You don’t hire to build and operate a mine and plant unless you expect it to happen.

Good to go 🚀

She’s going to blow …… 💥 🚀

£1 incoming