RE: Bounce29 May 2025 14:33
I’ve always been surprised by the MTL SP tbh.
The MM’s always seem loathed to take it up but are always happy to take it down based on a few sells. I guess we don’t have the visibility of what they are holding or being asked for.
My take on the lack of serious money piling into MTL, and this is just my personal opinion of course, is that they are too predictable. The timelines and growth have been laid out by the BOD’s and historically MTL have always worked to (or before) anything RNS’d. At least since DB has had the helm.
Investors can therefore be as sure as these things can be that nothing stratospheric is going to happen until La India starts producing - the Philippine opportunities are not going to suddenly start producing FCF tomorrow. Similarly, a one-off dividend is unlikely as DB has said as much.
Maybe a buyback would help nudge this along quicker but who is going to sell a serious chunk if it’s been held since the turnaround?
Smaller investors are probably happy to keep buying into the steady rise but the big money? Buy on the news is probably the mantra, they can see bigger short term returns elsewhere probably.
We’ve had a few chunky buys recently which is good to see but MTLs growth is only slightly better than most established producers.
For me every 1% growth is appreciated, I’m here for the long term and don’t want to risk chasing rainbows elsewhere.
This is as surefire a thing as I’m likely to find and has been for sometime now.