Member Info for lsetown

Looking at that list most of the licences expire in under 2 years from now.

Have Rockhopper done enough to automatically go to Phase 3 in all important areas, or are we to rely on FIG goodwill?

Yes, I personally think they are too cheap to sell now. I always thought that these should be bought and not looked at until 2025 or so. Problem is I keep looking!

I agree that the volume has been small and the MMs have wide spreads with only very little sized bids offered. Hold-on and forget these for a while is a good policy.

Cheer mikemike - I thought I was imagining things when it wasn't there.

Good luck to all.

Didn't you get a negative reply from someone for that one mikemike ? Is it deleted now?

Anyway, any holders are pretty much locked-in here.

It's definitely a 'die or do' share now.

Glad to hear everyone is okay.

I can get my head around Arg's cash and burn rate, their prospects and possible farm-in interest etc.

But, even after reading from ARG's website and Edison's (where they say there was a commitment to drill before November 2019??) I can't workout how likely ARG will be able to extend their licence of PL001 into the 2020s.

Anyone got any comments?

Is there a FIG page documenting the licence Ts&Cs ?

Good point - that made me think about this from Rockhopper's point of view.

From Rockhopper's/PMO's perspective, doing a similar deal to the one that Noble/Edison had with ARG offers significant potential value.

It would only cost a few years of $0.3 million per annum (which compared with the FID of $1500 million is insignificant). They would then own the rest of the 'Johnson' area in PL001 and should drilling commence in the NFB and exploration continue, ARG's prospects could be revealed.

This sort of deal could offer a very large upside with a very limited liability.

Personally I think ARG should hold-out until a FID from PMO / Rockhopper is announced.

The current £10 million market cap. is very small if development is going ahead nearby.

When the SP went to 15p or so last month I tried to sell some and they wouldn't take even a few thousand of them from me. That was Market Maker bluster with a wide spread I reckon.

I'd hope that the UK taxpayer's money would be carefully invested so any 'Export Credit' would surely only go towards realising bankable assets. ARG is a punt on any drill results in their licence, so I think using private capital is the only way Noble will be able to pay for it.

I reckon ARG is really a 'Do or Die' share.

The main pitfall for an investor here is to sell too early.

Invest money that you can afford to lose now, ignore it all and come back in ten year's time to see what happened.

That's the best way - Riches or Nothing.

Easier said than done though.

Came back here after the recent III debacle - I couldn't make head nor tail of it. I guess I'm not alone though looking at the paucity of recent posts. I hope they fix it, or at least the great and the good of Rockhopper posters move elsewhere.

I know that Noble are looking for investments outside the US. Rockhopper must be seen by many as a tasty target at the current oil price!

So are you saying that Argos would get the full $70 for each of their barrels? That is where I'm not sure what other costs will be expected of them? Just for optimistic arguments sake say that 500 million barrels of oil were found and produced in their acreage. 5% would be 25 million barrels. But how much would Argos receive in revenue at a $70 oil price?

The front page of Argos website says: "... an Overriding Royalty Interest of 5% of gross production from all hydrocarbon discoveries developed within the Licence. This royalty interest is free and clear of all future capital and operating costs for the life of the Licence." If say the per barrel market price is $70, how much would Argos receive for each of their barrels under this agreement?

Have you looked at the Kelly Criterion for ideal bet size Falklandinvestor? I reckon it is suited to shares like Rockhopper. A 25% chance of 800% return is my guess.

Thanks pijoe1212. Anyone know where we can read more about Rockhopper's claim here? The reports I have read from Rockhopper's website seem to only give a general description of the process. It is obvious I guess, but if we could be sure of a minimum award then this share would be much easier to value!

As I'm not a legal person I searched Google: "Arbitration A non-court alternative method of resolving disputes, where an arbitrator or panel of arbitrators is appointed by the parties to make a binding decision, from which there are very limited grounds of challenge." Is this the case here? If so, who is the arbitrator?

FalklandInvestor. Why do you think the Italian payment is pretty much guaranteed ? I hope it is, but can we be sure?

Thanks Wordog. Yes I was in TRP and was also burnt a bit! With the price of oil where it is I don't imagine ARG will rise much pre-spud, but long term will definitely be interesting. Today's Isobel result is great for RKH and the NFB in general. Chatham then Rhea....

I agree that if it is commercial it would make sense to hold-on until full value is reached. What about before. Do you plan on selling any before the result Wordog?

Boom today (but still small market cap.). It needs a lot to go right, but imagine the dividends if this block gets producing.

Thanks for the replies. Yes, so a good result at Isobel and a move above $50 will see this move!

Great posts today Rayban and Peteb308. Thanks. Rockhopper with its cash and soon to be merged assets from FOGL appears to me to have great potential. I guess the investor's question is how much could this be worth long-term? If oil was back at say $100 a barrel, have either of you an estimate for the profit per barrel Rockhopper could expect from Sea Lion after capex and opex ? A tricky question I know !