Member Info for lsetown

Quite positive RNS headlines :

· US$406,000 profit (2017: US$118,000)

· US$788,000 cash reserves at 31 December 2018 (2017: US$758,000)

· The Working Interest in the Licence was transferred back to Argos in February 2019

· The Group will continue to receive quarterly cash payments from Noble and Edison of £75,000 per quarter, for a period of 450 days after the notice to withdraw, until 27 December 2019

· The current Second Phase of the Licence expires in November 2019. Discussions about the licence term beyond that date are underway with the Falkland Islands Government

I agree that dilution is a key risk GreySquirrel.

I feel comforted that Sam and others have significant holdings and options and salaries. In theory they SHOULD want the same as shareholders.

The recent presentation on pages 11 and 12 says:

- Nanushuk Topset Play
- Gross best estimate unrisked prospective resource 400 MMBO

- Additional stacked potential in the Seabee and Torok Formations
- Further upside with targets extending southwest on lease

If 400 million barrels is the 'Best' case for only the Nanushuk then Winx could be considerably larger with the Torok. The 'High' P10 case could also be much bigger than 400 million barrels.

If Winx is a success then the rest of the lease could have significant potential.

Has anyone got a good link about Great Bear's Alkaid exploration and weather prone testing? (Google seems to give me more modern stuff). Thanks.

Sort of.

I think the message is that RMP have got their figures wrong and it is actually a 'Best' case they are quoting as used by the other partners.

I have no intention to discredit the figures - far from it as I hold!

In my experience 'High' figures can be significantly larger than 'Best' figures so I guess it's fingers crossed.

Thank JofHoggit.

So if this is a Best estimate then at least we know that any High case isn't included in it via an average. Better news then I hope.

The second example I gave adds up to 1100 not 1200 sorry, but hopefully you get my point.

A 'gross mean' can be made up from very different Low, Best, High values.

It's definitely not pedantic Chartman99.

It is material in the upside potential. We haven't been given the Low or High cases have we?

RMP mention the 'Gross Mean' so just as a guess 400 million could be:

Low=50mmb Mid=250mmb High=900mmb
or
Low=100mmb Mid=450mmb High=550mmb
or many others.

If, as 88E say, the 'Best' case is used then the 'High' case could be anything from the same amount to multiples of the 'Best' case.

Definitely worth knowing!

Thanks Moneyhawk.

Some people may not realise it ;-) but the difference in potential can be big.....!

I realise that my first post may confuse so have edited:

Our recent target depth RNS says:

"The Winx ..... with a GROSS MEAN unrisked prospective resource of 400 million barrels"

But the same target depth RNS from 88E says:

"Winx-1 ...... will target GROSS BEST estimate prospective oil resource of 400 million barrels"

'Gross Best' estimate and 'Gross Mean' are different things.

Eg. if you have three estimates:

'A' Low 'B' Best 'C' High
'Gross Mean' is = (A+B+C)/3

Do we believe 88E are correct?

"All 4 partners have a different % of the well."

Yes, but I am talking about the total 400 million barrel estimate for the Winx well. There are discrepancies on resource description between RMP and 88E.

Red Emperor's recent target depth RNS says:

"The Winx ..... with a gross mean unrisked prospective resource of 400 million barrels ("MMbbls") (126MMbbls net to Red Emperor) "

But the same target depth RNS from 88E says:

"Winx-1 ...... will target gross best estimate prospective oil resource of 400 million barrels of oil (144 million barrels net to 88E)"

'Best' estimate and 'Gross Mean' are different things.

Eg. if you have three estimates:

'A' Low 'B' Best 'C' High
'Gross Mean' is = (A+B+C)/3

Do we believe 88E are correct?

Our recent target depth RNS says:

"The Winx ..... with a gross mean unrisked prospective resource of 400 million barrels ("MMbbls") (126MMbbls net to Red Emperor) "

But the same target depth RNS from 88E says:

"Winx-1 ...... will target gross best estimate prospective oil resource of 400 million barrels of oil (144 million barrels net to 88E)"

'Best' estimate and 'Gross Mean' are different things.

Eg. if you have three estimates:

'A' Low 'B' Best 'C' High
'Gross Mean' is = (A+B+C)/3

Do we believe 88E are correct?

I'm sure you know more than I do, but it is a bit of a racket if 30% fees on an award that then is halved remain!

To that extent a $100 million reward with $30 million fees would give the legal team $10 million more than the claimant!

Sorry. You are right Fernan10 - and well done for bringing it up and sending the email. I hope you get a reply.

I think what threw me was your slightly timid " to somewhat compensate RKH " phrase.

I believe Rockhopper should be fully compensated for any difference.

It's sad and indicative of the current state of the oil industry, but Premier are trying to get this to sanction without actually spending any money!

What with Brexit and a slim majority, I fear that the UK government haven't got the confidence or the foresight to commit significant funds to Sea-Lion.

I see that a company like Sirius Minerals (albeit awaiting funding lol) has great PR and prominently sells the project as a tax revenue creator and employer. Perhaps Rockhopper and Premier should try and sell this project more vocally to the UK government?

Wouldn't it be great if a large investor came along and took PMO out.

Or, how much would Premier accept for their 60% and carry obligations I wonder?

Honestly, if I had a couple of billion Dollars to spend then I would be very interested because the numbers stack-up here. It's only the legacy financial impediments that are in the way.

How much total has Premier Oil spent on Sea Lion I wonder?

Surely Rockhopper could rightly claim any unused carry by offsetting other costs like those for the vendor finance or export credit etc.?

If only some sort of timing limit mechanism was included within the original farm-out. Rockhopper would have many suitors as 100% holders I'm sure.

All this desperation is a great buy indicator!

We now have Psychiatry on this board. (I am wondering if this is a good investment indicator? lol)

Maybe you are right. But surely the real question is:

Is RKH a good investment?

Yes, if you believe that they will have a significant oil find.