Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
I think folks are deluded if they believe ordinary PIs with 35m shares voted against that resolution. Look at the overall anaemic numbers. This was a large holder, like Blok or other fund. Which leads me to think: if support from institutions was required, could there have been some discussions with them, to explain in greater detail? In any case it’s done and dusted. I don’t think it affects the IPO.
600thieves: great post. If I recollect correctly, Hive issued a further 400,000 shares to an undisclosed party (imo Argo) when they bought a GPU One data centre. Argo owns 10% of GPU one, and this is part of our growth strategy. After all owning the facility creates staggering efficiencies. (core scientific for ex with 91% efficiency; I believe we can beat that, esp when energy production AND arbitrage comes in). Look at the superb efficiencies created by Navier in their buildings. Soluna is the missing piece in our energy production imo. As a side note, the Nasdaq prospectus mentions some metrics on our bitcoin production costs. Good luck all
They have effectively sold only 43 coins or coin equivalents. Good strategy hedging risk imho. Good luck all
The delay may be purely regulatory/legal process taking its time. RTOs can take several months I read. Main thing is copper remains buoyant, Minto is in production with ramp up of capacity planned, ready buyer of concentrate in Sumitomo and the step out drilling has commenced. Investors move in herds. When/if the value emerges, buyers will come in. Until then it’s an orphan holding 11% of an op that’s obscure as regards profitability. Imho only. DYOR.
Minto is a producing asset, aiming for 20ktpa Cu. Alongside that cash flow, there is explorer/developer upside. Sumitomo would not partner with a minnow if it didn’t fit strategically long term. The gold stream is likely to be renegotiated (it was last year for 12 months). A fully funded drill program is underway. Minto has plans to expand production and work has been ongoing, be it adding electrical capacity, ventilation or resource expansion. The copper price drop may have affected sentiment. All in costs in recent PEA were 2.65$/lb, comfortably in cash at current Cu prices. Great grades in Copper Keel drilling program done last year. Also whether we retain that 11% interest, is the question. Based on what we know, I have kept adding. Always possible the market knows something we don’t. Not long to find out. Good luck all.
Correction: 100MW gives about 3EH capacity (as per PW interview with Saylor recently).
Don’t care too much about Monday open but do understand folks like to speculate. I expect the following updates within the rest of the year, essentially just 4.5 months.
1. Update on new mining machines installed and running: scheduled for Q3-early Q4, ie we were told they would be installed in Aug/Sept and by mid Oct fully running. 430PH was mentioned. And a 70PH supplement to be commissioned in July (that latter 70PH was not been mentioned in July update). Payment of £32m made in advance to Core Scientific indicates some machines are due within weeks. My estimate is this will be higher than the 500PH mentioned, nearer 1EH. Even if not, 500PH is a straight 50% increase in our existing capacity, so should rerate in a more rational market post Nasdaq listing
2. Update on ePIC machines: £3.42m paid in advance to ePIC ASIC Asia Co, for machines due in Q4 21. This should be interesting given ePIC is looking at a top 10 coin, but not necessarily bitcoin. Which one will it be? I quite like ETC (not ETH) as the underdog ;)
3. Update from Pluto on listing/IPO. Of interest given we hold 25% of Pluto
4. Further updates on build out of Texas facility and deployment of funds raised in IPO. 50MW to be commissioned within H1 2022. Thats circa 3EH capacity. I expect some update on the energy generation aspect on site too, likely to be solar imo.
Plenty to look forward to if one has patience. Good luck all.
Krautyankee: could you please point out the exact time, in the video when PW refutes any pending material legal proceedings from Celsius towards us? He states that we chose to litigate. Boatman rubbish claimed that Celsius was claiming against Argo for alleged losses. Of course these may not be material, but PW chose not to comment on that side of litigation. Maybe it’s grey not black and white. Legal stuff usually is and if negotiations are ongoing, he is wise to stay silent.
There are other dots which lead to my conclusions. For ex the ePIC deal, the manner in which the RNS stated the deal was renegotiated and the sketchy detail around this. It’s irrelevant long term as I m a patient holder and still believe in the team 100%. But some games have been played around the Nasdaq list and price action preceding. Imho only.
Cheers Mark. I think the share price was/is being managed until the listing paper work goes through (to stay below 136p approx which is the USD 700m point). Of course the lack of clarity on various aspects has not helped the more nervous PIs here:
1. 320 acres in the original RNS changed to 160 acres with optionality on remainder (157 acres). Might this have happened after the credit facility was reconsidered?
2. $100m credit facility. Its not mentioned in the prospectus, which leads me to think they might be reconsidering wrt to this facility (its not a negative, in a swiftly moving market, the loan may well still be available, but may have no longer made sense ie they might have found a better deal)
3. Exact expansion scheduled in Q3-4 (we know £32m has been prepaid to Core Scientific, and its my belief this will fetch much higher capacity than the purported 430PH, I m going for at least 700PH, even 1EH is possible looking at comparable deals by other miners recently). The recent H1 statement could have highlighted post period activity ie clear expansion plans. It chose not to.
4. On the legal case with Core scientific, the prospectus confirms in black and white, we have NO pending legal proceedings/claims against us. PW could have stated this in as many words when refuting the boatman rubbish, he chose not to.
All in all, sentiment has run low over last 3 months and bitcoin price action hasn’t helped. I have no doubts the co has big ambitions long term and we will ascend beyond previous ATHs eventually. I also happen to think it wants to institutionalise its share register and unfortunately that means dislodging some weaker retail hands. Market has done this and Argo hasn’t really tried to stem it. Above are just my humble opinions and as always I could be completely wrong. Good luck all
Blubay: could you please peruse page 158 of the draft listing document (prospectus) which has details of how the underwriter can “stabilise” the price including using naked shorts and covered shorts. Not a trick question but genuinely interested as a novice, if this isn’t legally facilitated share price manipulation, then what is it? Thanks in advance
Oh yes, one more item, which basically debunks part of the recent FUD on the company and its relationship with Celsius Network. Sink that boatman.
Page 93: “...We are NOT currently subject to any material pending legal proceedings or claims.”
Zydecoco: I noted one or two more key facts: They have had issues with the Antminers S17s-circa 38% failure rates, which are near the 30% rate average seen with this machine. Bitmain appears to have created a poor product on this occasion with issues with power supply and cooling fans. This would explain the discrepancy in our maths and bitcoin numbers monthly.
Second point: page 158 of the document states quite explicitly that the share price can be “managed”. The word used is “stabilisation” which to my (simple) mind as explained, is euphemism for shorting and all other mechanisms to keep the share price within the brackets of the placing price. Happy to be corrected on this.
Bluebay: agreed. My interpretation: IF we list in this quarter, then the mcap being <700m USD in Q2 suits us. However if the listing is delayed for whatever reason, and goes into say Q4, then the mcap in Q3 matters. I don’t foresee any issues with listing, yet to be clear.
I posted this last night. Do people think the share price has been managed, to keep mcap below $700m? Just curious as to view points. Good luck all.
Ian: I m wondering if the share price was walked/held down, to enable the nasdaq listing. I know it sounds ridiculous and it probably is. But that listing condition is clear as day-to be an accelerated filer, we cannot have a market exceeding $700m. Thats a share price of £1.35 give or take.
Happy to be shot down-but reading that Nasdaq listing doc posted here, it appears they needed the market cap to stay on average BELOW $700m in the quarter pre listing. (Page 3: “Implications of being an emerging growth company”.).
(We would CEASE to be an emerging growth company upon the earliest to occur of the following: (1) the last day of our fiscal year during which we have more than $1.07 billion in total annual gross revenue; (2) the last day of our fiscal year following the fifth anniversary of the closing of this offering; (3) the date on which we are deemed to be a “large accelerated filer” under the Exchange Act, which would occur if the market value of our ordinary shares held by non-affiliates exceeds $700 million as of the last business day of our most recently completed second fiscal quarter; or (4) the date on which we have, during the previous three-year period, issued more than $1.0 billion of non-convertible debt securities.
So condition three is clearly one of market cap.
I found this link to “accelerated filers” vs large accelerated filers. We would be “accelerated filers” with a market cap below $700m and a “predetermined raise aimed at $75m, but able to raise slightly less ie 60m.
https://www.sec.gov/corpfin/secg-accelerated-filer-and-large-accelerated-filer-definitions
I know very little about Nasdaq listing, but looks like share price has been held here for a good reason-to enable conditions fulfilled to apply for our listing. That is my summary observation. I have felt for some time that the tone of the RNSs was subdued and news wasn’t being coloured as much as we would like it to be, in terms of impacting the market. Please feel free to demolish it. Good luck all
Zydecoco: sharp and on point. Only item I can add: £32m of kit purchased from Core Scientific, due to be delivered Q3-4, ie now. I m estimating that will buy us more than 530PH. Patience needed.
Well spotted as always Zydecoco! Imo Soluna will provide their expertise to generate solar. They mention 50MW coming online in 6/12 and a further 50MW in next 6/12, that’s gotto be our project? Soluna got taken over by MTI which is on Nasdaq. Check out “ecomining” a branch of MTI.
ARB raised over £46m in H1. A £26m slice of raise was at 200p sp. Institutions participated. They have subsequently got a loan facility for £14m against a part of their bitcoin holdings. A $100m loan facility was made available when the Texas land was purchased. If the loan facility was cancelled, the company was obliged to tell the market, because it’s price sensitive information imho.
If one believes there’s a plan being executed, then one waits patiently. If one has lost confidence in the team, then sell out. Be at peace with your position. Good luck all
Was reading through Finncap reports and commentary. They assume 3EH (100MW) comes online in H1 22, another 100MW in H2 22. They assume with every bitcoin price doubling, difficulty/hashrate also jumps same proportion. So from price of say 40k to 80k for ex, they assume hashrate jumps 150EH to 300 EH. I doubt it will jump at such a pace, especially given the drop from Chinese regulation, but who knows.
They allocated £75m for building cost ie build out and £60m for the machines (unclear whether for 100mw or 200mw). Those numbers were announced in their early June research note and haven’t been revised downwards. Again with rig pricing having dropped, I feel it may be lower. Margin of 75% which feels quite conservative.
More importantly, if we have paid £32m for machines due soon, that can’t be be for a mere 530PH, IF we are looking at £60m for 3EH. Ive looked at other miners purchases, and on average 40m USD buys atleast 1EH capacity. On this alone, disregarding Pluto etc, we should double capacity and therefore forward revenue. Not long to find out. Happy to be corrected on the numbers.