Member Info for Lottohopes

This is discounting fully the £8.3m cash invested in Pluto, the $8m invested in ePIC partnership, data warehouses purchased from GPU etc. If one looks at the growth in DeFi over the last 12 months and yet how tiny it is in comparison to existing finance pools, then the growth ceiling is impossible to predict. Please DYOR. Disclaimer: I m #47 on the list.

Interesting post Harry. What’s your MM friends take on bitcoin? Did he see it hitting 50k this soon from last years low? Because that would be the underlying basis for starting the conversation.

Disappointing to see my name so low down in the ramper list lol. I m proud to speak highly of ARB and its prospects, as I believe in its potential and in the team’s calibre. Aiming to reach top ten in next month. Please ignore all the noise on the forum, all the ramping/De ramping etc and take a look yourself at the numbers, the margins, the model for growth. Nothing replaces ones own research. This team walks the walk, not just talks the talk. The issue is that the average investor is used to psychopathic bluster from charming CEOs on AIM type outfits, who achieve little of what they promise. Here we have achieved the milestones set and are growing at a rapid pace. Into a strengthening market for the commodity we deal in (Zcash and Bitcoin).

For all the aspersions about PW and the successive raises, how many warrants and options have we issued anew? All the warrants/options being cashed from December onwards belong to the initial raise in mid 2018. Many were due to expire hence had to be taken in this time period.

Peter has been clear that they chose to avoid warrants going forwards, so the compromise has been to have a discounted raise (rather than warrants tagged on). As regards the co “Vernon Blockchain”-from seeing the previous accounts section, it appears its the limited company through which his services get paid for. Nothing sinister about it as I can see-most have the same arrangement. All imho only. Please DYOR. Absolutely no substitute for ones own research. Also one learns to hone ones instinct and follow stories over months and years, to see if the investment thesis plays out. This is a story to follow. Follow your instinct. Good luck all

L_B: I take your point on supply chain still having Chinese links. I think the point is that ASICs are coming from China for these other players. Whilst our ASICS will be built in the US, using components that are widely available. Of course the dream would be to have full domestic manufacturing. Then there’s after sales support/repair-where again Bitmain has only one partner in the US from what I recollect. Securing the whole value supply chain is important to remain agile and grow smartly imho. Relying on PPE for example from China, that too seeing masks made in the very Hubei district where the virus is supposed to have originated is a lesson in irony, for the Western world. I read that there were no domestic disposable apron makers in the UK when this whole thing took off. We hope the story doesn’t repeat in the crypto world esp bitcoin.

Anyone interested, please take a look at ePIC’s partners listed here. All disruptive tech including machine learning, AI etc and big hitters. Some are at data centre level. In my opinion, this partnership is the key to unlocking the blockchain value within ARB. Take a look at what Celsius Network do-they build out customised data centres and they were announced as our partners. Note Bitmain made a foray into machine learning in its chips (I think) two years ago.

Bitmain is the largest vertically integrated producer of ASIC rigs plus operator of mining centres. It creates incredible efficiencies and innovation having the whole thing under one umbrella. And this is the differentiator for ARB vs other miners. Having the ASIC maker in house and customising/optimising the rigs to suit our needs/development. I ve said this before, that the reliance on China for mining rigs, the huge mining pools that companies that Bitmain contro/run, create some holes in the bitcoin narrative of decentralisation. The system is self correcting and that is the beauty of it. Tim Draper has said in interviews that decentralisation is essentially #DeGov. So its no wonder China is not keen on bitcoin’s ascent given it is eyeing its own digital currency. I think the govt made hay via taxes, when miners were generating good revenue, but with each halving reducing that revenue, and bitcoin becoming a credible challenger to its own currency, also the lack of state control over transactions, the state is becoming increasingly uncomfortable. The solution is booting miners out, creating unfavourable tax situations, higher electricity charges (in the guise of green targets).

If Huawei is suspect in terms of 5G tech, how can crypto mining be trusted if its China centric in terms of hardware supplied? This question is I m certain being asked and addressed. This aligns well with the American ambition to scale up its mining power, to regain its leadership in tech/blockchain, enlarge its mining pools and to mine the coin that institutions crave. Idealogically the US is keen to lead. And regardless of ideology, there is huge money and sheer power of capitalism will pull the tech upwards.

Some may recollect my post on “ethical bitcoin”-coin mined in a good jurisdiction and traceable. This means all coins are not born equal (bit like cobalt in DRC vs say Brazil). Going forwards one could expect a premium on coins mined by ARB type companies vs say that generated by coal in a communist nation. Indeed some will choose to invest in the greenest most efficient listed miner-ARB

Texas has big ambitions in blockchain as I posted earlier. (Please take a look at Texas Blockchain council and its partners). So the stars are aligning for us. I reckon the policy shift signalled by Biden, will also mean domestic chip makers will get incentive. Creating self sufficiency and not relying on China for critical supplies is going to be key imho.

https://www.epicblockchain.io/#partner

It’s disappointing to see so many attacking the strategy. I understand everyone’s entitled to their own opinion. And of course hero worship is not necessary. I didn’t buy in based on the Twitter glitter or just the engaging videos. That said, posters have raised some questions: for ex why did PW sell his shares? He mentioned it was to diversify risk, so it may well be to invest in Pluto for ex as an individual? It may well be a bit like the litecoin guy selling all his LTC, and creating a furore.

On share price, my understanding is: the dilution is immediately ahead, so it gets priced in quickly. Whilst the potential upside (for ex adding hash rate via 200MW facility at Texas) is not really factored in yet. Because there’s execution risk, market wonders about dilution etc. So in a way the value disconnect (if one calls it that) is based on the judgement: will ARB deliver what it says it will, in the time frames it says? And also the market cannot value unlisted entities such as Luxor or Pluto or indeed the ePIC partnership. Market has no visibility on what kind of ASICs ePIC is bringing in later this year. They have stated that development takes 12-15 months, so that period is nearly over. 8m paid has been factored in, but we have no inkling how efficient these machines will be or what other ASIC types apart from bitcoin mining we might get into. So it’s these unknowns that have value in investors heads. Of course one can discount it all to zero and stare at the bitcoin price as the only credible indicator of share price. To each his own.

Its diversification in the “crypto” space. Pluto is not just about proof of stake in bitcoin. Anyways, I m not interested in herding opinions. People are welcome to think independently and make their own decisions. If you feel its a terribly run company with endless dilutions, feel free to sell. Hold, go short, long, trade whatever. Its decentralised decision making ;)

Hants: TBF I don’t know much about the other 3 you mention. Diversifying is always a good thing provided the opportunities are attractive, I agree. Good luck whatever your strategy.

Hantsboy: I took only a few minutes with MARA and decided they were dodgy. For those moaning about our dilution and total share issue approaching 400m shares, take a look at their share split and consolidation. 4:1 consolidation on two occasions within 2-3 years of each other. Thats like ARB becoming 400–> 100> 25m shares!

If you look at their investor presentations for ex, there were (no idea if its still same presentation) examples of revenue growth and profit projection assuming bitcoin hits 100k. And here is the best part-the mining difficulty was assumed to stay STATIC for the full year. This is the kind of bogus information that needs to be avoided in comms and which assumes investors are fools. Recent RNS (MARA still) mentioned the % profit if all the machines get installed and bitcoin stays at x value. Real world situations are more complex and rarely at 100%. Peter for example mentions that there are always few rigs down for maintenance or optimising. Please take above with a pinch of salt, but just my musings.

Joe: that is the point. Right now, Pluto looks like a side project. What if a 25% stake in Pluto grows bigger than the rest of ARB? I think its possible considering the pace of De Fi and new projects in the space. What if our 154m warrants are worth many times over? Pluto is listing in Q2 21. Luxor intends to list later this year. Seed money is called “seed” money for a reason ;)

You hit the nail on the head AlphaOmega. Investors in general are used to spiky AIM shares, tiny raises with huge broker fees/flipped warrants. So any raise gets met with a paranoid thinking, which is only natural as the mind gets tempered by experience. Trust is not automatic, it is earned. So time will tell what is happening with ARB. Until then its a patient hold in my eyes given track record. Remember Peter was brought in as part of board change by one of the largest share holders early last year. So much has been achieved in twelve months (obviously bitcoin head winds have helped).

Supermanny: My first foray into primary bid (CBX) took few hours to arrive into my HL account (was there by 12.30-1pm). I didn’t have to do anything at HL end ie call/email. Secondly the remainder of my money returned to my account the same day too. The shares cannot enter an ISA, so they go into a fund and share account (for benefit of anyone wondering). Its a bit of a headache with HL who are not doing bed and isa at moment. So all in all a pretty good service from primarybid imo.

Let’s agree to disagree. ARB cant afford to remain a pure play on bitcoin. Assuming bitcoin is cyclical, most people are keenly watching S2F type predictions are looking at September-Oct for the peak of current bull run. Whilst ARB is eyeing up the next 5 years, 10 years and beyond. I m sure most long term investors hate the way our share price yo-yos when bitcoin fluctuates. Its value needs pegging more diversely to avoid the tent blowing away lol Pluto is absolutely the direction we should be taking one could argue. It is going into incubator projects, DeFi, proof of stake work. Look at the explosive growth in DeFi in the last year, and we are just scratching the surface. They intend to hold assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum themselves (so some of our cash will go towards that too). On the topic of risk, yes it is all high risk, but I believe there is a paradigm shift in how money is getting allocated towards riskier assets such as bitcoin going forwards. Just my two pence. Please DYOR

I would advise folks to stop guessing and join the dots. Please have a read on the Texas Blockchain council and its ambitions, its partners. Look at Hedera etc. Biggest semi conductor industry base in the States. One of the biggest economies in the US. Influential at the centre politically. Forward thinking in terms of tax regime on bitcoin/crypto, low tax base in any case. Plentiful green power and land. These guys want to rebuild the US dominance in tech in ref to blockchain. Look at ePIC’s comments on their deal with Argo. Its hardly about just supplying a bunch of rigs to ARB, its a deeper partnership in all things blockchain.

Henry Quan, ePIC CEO, said: “ePIC is delighted to partner with Argo to establish North America as a center of excellence for Blockchain mining and decentralization of blockchain security to RIVAL Asia. The teams at ePIC and Argo are strategically aligned in the quest to deliver innovative solutions and efficiencies only made possible through a close partnership. This vertical integration of sorts enables the lockstep delivery of advanced blockchain platforms combined with datacenter excellence.”

“This is an important milestone for the cryptocurrency industry to decentralize hashrate concentration and establish North America as a center of excellence. ePIC's role is create category leading products and build a supply chain to achieve that goal.”

So here is what I built up on numbers-please correct me if wrong. We put in £1m at 3p in the first raise. Thats 33m shares approximately. And we got a similar number of warrant shares at 6p (33m). Today we got £7.3m at 6p a share equalling 121m shares. Again 121m shares as warrants at 12p.

So our £8.3m investment equals atleast 25% of the total Pluto mcap at raise and about 154m shares. That matches previous articles on linkedin that stated Pluto intended to raise circa 50m dollars towards listing. Judging by how YOP tokens have performed within 2021, Pluto looks to have an exciting future. Those warrants will be worth many times over when things come together. IMHO only

LB: Layer1 was doing some interesting stuff, despite being mired in controversy. They were managing the power for the grid (? Blockchain based) and getting it at a much reduced cost. At times these miners got paid more $$ to keep their machines shut down (to allow power to go back into the grid and support critical demand).

Note Texas suffered a power outage few days ago, due to grid shut down in cold weather/storms. Being close to the grid must have some advantages-I read that the grid is happy to supply surplus power on a very cheap rate to nearby customers.

The other Texas connection is the Bitmain machine facility which DMG were supposed to run, but decided not to. Easily conceivable we are managing those machines now. After all being part of a larger mining pool enables higher efficiency and greater chance of success.

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/52163/bitmain-cancels-operation-partnership-for-its-texas-mining-farm

Interesting timing. No harm in joining dots occasionally, could be nothing. Anyways, Texas looks like it’s aiming to be “the” blockchain destination in the US superseding Silicon Valley. Also found Hedera which I hadn’t heard of before. So much reading to do.....

“FCA ruling still allow u buy regular BTC with UK exchanges.”: am I supposed to feel grateful lol
HSBC has consistently blocked my debit card from being used to buy any bitcoin on coinbase. So a bank is dictating what I can and cant do with MY money. It doesn’t stop me buying a new car that depreciates 35% in the first year. Doesn’t stop me applying for numerous credit cards and over leveraging myself :)

HL suddenly decides to PREPONE the FCA ban by three months (from Jan 2021 to Oct 2020). All in all, these dinosaurs (I m referring to financial institutions in current form) are going to be left behind (as they should be), given how they have treated average Joe for years. The days of hefty bonuses and ridiculous salaries at tax payers expense, are numbered.....Every single person participating in bitcoin and other cryptos (whether by directly holding ~BTC or via a miner etc) is part of a quiet revolution imho.

KathB: thank you for sharing. I was annoyed that HL preponed the ban by 3 month sales to Oct end 2020. I was keen to buy some XBT BTC which was the only option to gain direct bitcoin exposure within a SIPP. Now that option is gone for retail. A systemic effort to exclude us from the growth story. Under the guise of “protecting us”. They didn’t protect us from pay day loans or hugely expensive credit card debt or 110% mortgages ;) now the treasury is underwriting mortgages with 5% deposits. And yet people only see bitcoin as the bubble lol

600thieves: here are my two pence thoughts. ARB will continue accumulating bitcoin (and Zcash) through out 2021 and beyond. In that sense, prevailing market price of bitcoin creates a number for our balance sheet, but we are unlikely to sell it all any time soon.

I have posted few days ago, that the first half of the year is more important (for us) in my view, given our expansion occurs right now. The difficulty rate hasn’t risen as steeply as the bitcoin price, new machines (as far as other miners are concerned) are awaiting addition in second half of year. Plus now we hear that Mongolian authorities have given April as the dead line for bitcoin/ETH miners to get out of the region. They mine about 7.7% of the world’s capacity in hash rate. That will be absorbed by companies like ARB who are adding hash rate as we speak. Bitcoin price can stay at 45-50k for the rest of the year for all I care. Steady accumulation of bitcoin and our expansion into DeFi will drive growth in our share price. Early Q4 sees the first chunk of the ePIC miners coming online ie the Texas facility is being built over next 6 months.

I ve been trying to read up and understand the Chinese policy on bitcoin. From what I see early on, they liked the revenue/tax generated by miners. Now they see the whole thing as a competitive threat to their digital currency roll out, plus it compromises the green targets set in each region. The miners have been struggling to cash in their bitcoin, with accounts suspended, raids on facilities etc. Convenient timing after the halving. I suspect many of the miners are less efficient than our own ARB given they were running on cheap electricity, which is becoming dearer by the day. So all in all, bitcoin mining is becoming more “decentralised” which can only be a good thing. If it becomes less China centric, that too can only be a good thing. Some of that hash rate will emerge in the US, which is looking to support growth of this industry. Again, a good thing for our growth plans. ARB is diligently creating a vertically integrated operation based in the US, with access to capital, talent, solid relationships with the best ASIC miners (hardware and software), hash rate management (Luxor), crypto related financing (Celsius Network) etc augurs well for us.

Take a look at HC Wainwright’s completed transactions page. Staggering deals. We were small fry for these folks. Almost every listed crypto firm goes through them.

https://hcwco.com/transactions/

So for me the value drivers: number of bitcoin accumulated in H1 will outnumber (proportionately for hash rate expansion) that accumulated in H2. Zcash will take off given it just had its halving in November 2020. Pluto digital will list Q3 21 and new projects emerge. Luxor intends to list eventually in 2021-again our seed capital will multiply manifold imho. ePIC is very innovative and interested in blockchain, proof of stake work etc. I see more collaboration emerging. IMHO only. P